Try the model
ASU

Arizona State 37 at UCLA 44

UCLA
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Rose Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:18 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:55: Manny Wilkins run for 16 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +9.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:21: Soso Jamabo run for 21 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +12.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:41: Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +12.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:54: Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 22 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +20.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:20: Brandon Ruiz 23 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +7.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 9ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 13:32UCLA 4th & 10 at ASU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:32ASU 4th & 11 at ASU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:22UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:39UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 35, up 7
    Close callPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:50UCLA 4th & 7 at ASU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:50ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:49UCLA 4th & 10 at ASU 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−5.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:33ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 38, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:27UCLA 4th & 1 at ASU 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−2.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:54ASU 4th & 5 at UCLA 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    45.8%−1.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:22ASU 4th & 3 at UCLA 4, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%−1.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−13.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:14ASU 4th & 4 at UCLA 4, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−10.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:13UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:47ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:38UCLA 4th & 2 at ASU 2, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.9%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−13.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:38ASU 4th & 9 at UCLA 47, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:37UCLA 4th & 23 at ASU 35, up 10
    Close callPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%−0.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:17ASU 4th & 3 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−0.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:20ASU 4th & 4 at UCLA 5, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%−1.0
    92% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:34ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:39ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:23UCLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:34UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:55ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:21UCLA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:41UCLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:54UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 1:2859% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Alex Van Dyke for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+39
58.7%
Eldridge Massington run for 39 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
58.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Austin RobertsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
58.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Austin RobertsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+11
58.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 11 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
58.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Austin Roberts, broken up by DJ CalhounSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
58.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
58.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Bolu OlorunfunmiSimilar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
58.8%
JJ Molson 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
58.7%
Kyle Williams run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
58.7%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
58.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 1 yd to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+1
58.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 1 yd to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-3
58.8%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Jacob Tuioti-Mariner for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 11
OWN 32
+4
58.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 53 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for 4 yds to the UCLA 36 UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (9 Yards) to the UCLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
58.8%
UCLA Penalty, personal foul (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 5Similar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
58.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 4 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+1
58.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 1 yd to the UCLA 10Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
58.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
58.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 40 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:4142% → 45%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
50
+5
58.2%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+7
58.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
58.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 6 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+22
58.1%
Demario Richard run for 22 yds to the UCLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
58.1%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
55.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5INT
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
56.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 30 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
57.1%
Josh Rosen pass intercepted Chad Adams return for no gain to the ArzSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:3244% → 51%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
55.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
55.5%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
55.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
50
-2
55.4%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+4
55.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+5
55.5%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UCLA 43Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
55.5%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
55.4%
N'Keal Harry run for 16 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
55.3%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+1
55.3%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+13
55.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 13 yds to the UCLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
55.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 2Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.6%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.6%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 8 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
50.1%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the UCLA 34Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
50.1%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
50.0%
Brandon Stephens run for 3 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
50.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Austin RobertsSimilar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+5
50.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Christian Pabico for 5 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
50.4%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+27
52.7%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted for a TD Nate Meadors return for 27 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:1847% → 48%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
52.9%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+3
52.3%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
52.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
51.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
51.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen Harvey, broken up by Nate MeadorsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+4
52.4%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 42 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for 4 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:3752% → 61%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
52.4%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the UCLA 28Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+15
52.4%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Chase Lucas) to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+30
53.3%
Christian Pabico run for 30 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
54.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+23
54.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 23 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.3%
Josh Rosen run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3342% → 54%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.8%
Demario Richard run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
57.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
50
+2
56.0%
Kyle Williams run for 2 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+11
56.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 11 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
56.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+5
55.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+8
56.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 8 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
55.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
55.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
46.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 16 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12FG
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:0149% → 55%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+59
49.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 59 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
52.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
52.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
51.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Christian PabicoSimilar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
55.2%
JJ Molson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
53.1%
Kyle Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
53.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+6
54.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+33
54.7%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 31 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:3756% → 58%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
55.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 1
50
+15
56.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 15 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
57.5%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+5
57.6%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
57.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
57.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
56.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan WilsonSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
57.8%
JJ Molson 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:1645% → 46%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.6%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
54.5%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
54.4%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
53.7%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
54.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+2
54.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
54.4%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0055% → 57%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
55.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 18 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
58.1%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
57.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Austin RobertsSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+9
55.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Brandon Stephens for 9 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-2
56.8%
Brandon Stephens run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17MISSED FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:3850% → 52%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
50.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 11 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
49.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
49.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+14
49.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 14 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+44
47.9%
Brandon Ruiz 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0047% → 48%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
52.8%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+22
51.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 22 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
50.1%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+4
50.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
50.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
52.2%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:4458% → 73%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
57.7%
Damian Alloway run for 5 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
58.1%
Josh Rosen run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 1
50
+3
57.9%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
58.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Christian Pabico for 12 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
59.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 14 yds to the ArzSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
72.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 21 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20FG
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5533% → 39%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
67.4%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-12
67.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, personal foul (A.J. McCollum) to the ArzSt 13Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 18
OWN 13
0
67.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete, broken up by Will LockettSimilar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+36
69.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 36 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
64.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 5 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+23
64.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 23 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
62.2%
Demario Richard run for 12 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
62.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+1
62.2%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the UCLA 6Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+2
63.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 4Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
60.8%
Brandon Ruiz 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:3665% → 82%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
64.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 2 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
64.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 5 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+56
65.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 56 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
69.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 7 yds to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:2121% → 26%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
78.9%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
79.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+19
80.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 19 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+47
77.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 47 yds to the UCLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
74.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the UCLA 3Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
74.6%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 4Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
73.7%
Brandon Ruiz 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23PUNT TD
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0179% → 58%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
78.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Soso Jamabo for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 21Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+12
78.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 12 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
78.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Christian PabicoSimilar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+9
58.3%
TEAM punt blocked by Malik Lawal blocked by Malik Lawal Eno Benjamin return for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1960% → 87%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
59.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Giovanni Gentosi for 29 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
64.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 4 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
64.4%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
63.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
65.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 7 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+5
65.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
86.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 22 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
78.0%
Demario Richard run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
76.5%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
75.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle Williams, broken up by Nate MeadorsSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-3
75.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Jacob Tuioti-Mariner for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+21
79.3%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 35 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for 21 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 26FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:1487% → 88%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
86.9%
Josh Rosen run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line Josh Rosen fumbled, recovered by UCLA Josh Rosen , return to the 50 yard line , return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 4
50
+7
87.5%
Jalen Starks run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
87.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+24
87.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 24 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
88.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 4 yds to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
88.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Austin RobertsSimilar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+7
87.1%
Jalen Starks run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
88.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, face mask (4 yards) (Christian Sam) to the ArzSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
88.0%
Jalen Starks run for no gain to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
88.0%
Josh Rosen run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
87.1%
Josh Rosen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
88.1%
JJ Molson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ceejhay French-Love for 5 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
88.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete, broken up by Colin SamuelSimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
89.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
88.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 13 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
87.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
87.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
87.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle Williams, broken up by Colin SamuelSimilar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
89.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle Williams, broken up by Colin SamuelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0092% → 90%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+31
91.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 31 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
92.1%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 15
OPP 27
0
91.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 15
OPP 27
-3
91.2%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 23
OPP 35
0
89.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 33 yds, downed at the ArzSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 29FG
15 plays · 93 yds · 3:577% → 13%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
92.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
92.5%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
92.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 7 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+6
92.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 6 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
91.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 13 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
91.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Curtis Hodges for 6 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+1
90.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 3
50
0
90.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 3
50
+39
91.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 39 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
88.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
88.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+2
94.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
87.5%
Brandon Ruiz 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 30END OF GAME
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0296% → 96%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 13
OPP 46
-3
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 16
OPP 49
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 22 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
+20.9
TD · Q3 11:21
Soso Jamabo run for 21 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
+12.9
TD · Q3 5:41
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
+12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com