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ORST

Oregon State 28 at Arizona 49

ARIZ
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:01 · Alex Bland punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+30.2Home team on offense+13.3Score differential+8.7Garbage-time factor+1.9Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:25: Zach Green run for 4 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +1.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:01: Khalil Tate run for 19 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +3.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:11: Tony Ellison run for 27 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:39: Khalil Tate run for 71 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:54: Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 6 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +2.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:05ORST 4th & 19 at ORST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:17ORST 4th & 1 at ARIZ 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:01ORST 4th & 17 at ORST 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:51ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:54ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:30ORST 4th & 14 at ORST 11, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:33ORST 4th & 12 at ARIZ 32, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:33ORST 4th & 5 at midfield, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:10ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:25ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:01ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:11ARIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:16ORST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:39ARIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:54ORST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:32ARIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:44ORST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:33ARIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:22ORST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5091% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.2%
Khalil Tate run for 8 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
91.2%
Khalil Tate run for 12 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
91.2%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+3
91.2%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+22
91.2%
Khalil Tate run for 22 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
91.2%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+1
91.2%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+23
91.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 23 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
91.2%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.8%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
90.6%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+14
90.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 14 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
90.6%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 14
OWN 29
-5
90.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 19
OWN 24
0
90.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Ryan Nall, broken up by Anthony PandySimilar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 19
OWN 24
0
90.7%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 19
OWN 24
0
90.7%
Alex Bland punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0090% → 91%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
90.4%
Khalil Tate run for 17 yds to the ARIZONA 45 ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 8
OWN 40
+14
90.5%
Khalil Tate run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
90.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 8 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+4
90.5%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
90.6%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Shawn Wilson return for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 49 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+14
90.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Tuli Wily-Matagi for 14 yds to the OrgSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
90.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+4
90.0%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
90.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
89.9%
Darell Garretson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+10
90.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 10 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
89.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
89.9%
Alex Bland punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:2490% → 92%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
89.6%
Nick Wilson run for 10 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.6%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+11
89.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 11 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
89.6%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
90.0%
Khalil Tate run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
89.9%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+13
89.7%
Khalil Tate run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+29
90.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 29 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
90.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
90.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive offside (4 Yards) to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
91.7%
Zach Green run for 4 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:259% → 9%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.8%
Ryan Nall run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
90.5%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
90.7%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
90.7%
Darell Garretson sacked by Colin Schooler for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
90.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 6 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
90.7%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete, broken up by Luca BrunoSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
90.8%
Alex Bland punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:0791% → 96%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
91.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 13 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
91.4%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
91.7%
Tyrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
91.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+24
91.8%
Nick Wilson run for 24 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
91.8%
Nick Wilson run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+2
91.8%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+19
95.8%
Khalil Tate run for 19 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.0%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
94.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
94.8%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
94.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
94.7%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+9
94.7%
Darell Garretson run for 9 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
94.6%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 49Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+1
94.8%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-7
94.9%
Darell Garretson sacked by Colin Schooler for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
95.1%
Alex Bland punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:0496% → 99%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
96.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 10 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+56
96.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 56 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
96.6%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 9
OPP 18
-9
96.6%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 12 ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 18
OPP 27
+27
99.1%
Tony Ellison run for 27 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:201% → 1%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 8 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
98.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-4
98.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+6
98.6%
Alex Bland punt for 51 yds , Shun Brown returns for 6 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.0%
Zach Green run for 7 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:441% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.7%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
98.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
98.6%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+11
98.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 11 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
98.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 45Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+10
98.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 10 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+16
98.1%
Ryan Nall run for 16 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.3%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the Ariz 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
98.3%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
96.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 15 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3797% → 100%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.4%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
99.5%
Khalil Tate run for 71 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:451% → 3%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+13
99.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 13 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.4%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+16
99.4%
Ryan Nall run for 16 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
99.3%
Ryan Nall run for 14 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.3%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the Ariz 7Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
99.3%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 6 Thomas Tyner fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Thomas TynerSimilar
Q3 5:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 6 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 13 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
97.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
97.8%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Ariz 45Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-10
97.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+6
97.7%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
97.6%
Josh Pollack punt for 44 yds, downed at the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
97.9%
Darell Garretson sacked by TEAM for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 14
OWN 11
0
97.9%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Noah Togiai, broken up by Colin SchoolerSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 14
OWN 11
0
98.0%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
98.0%
Alex Bland punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:0398% → 100%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
98.4%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+4
98.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+8
98.3%
Khalil Tate run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
98.4%
Nick Wilson run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Zach Green run for 3 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:490% → 1%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+24
99.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 24 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
99.8%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+10
99.8%
Ryan Nall run for 10 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
99.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete, broken up by Tony Fields IISimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+8
99.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Thomas Tyner for 8 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+17
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 17 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
98.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 15 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:1199% → 100%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
99.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
99.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.2%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+15
99.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.2%
Zach Green run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.2%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:110% → 1%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 20 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-2
99.9%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 5
50
+6
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 6 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 44 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21INT
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
99.5%
Darell Garretson sacked by Kylan Wilborn for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+24
99.5%
Darell Garretson pass intercepted Lorenzo Burns return for 24 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
50
+14
99.6%
Branden Leon run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.6%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
99.6%
Nathan Tilford run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
99.6%
Zach Werlinger run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:01
Khalil Tate run for 19 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q2 1:11
Tony Ellison run for 27 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q3 9:39
Khalil Tate run for 71 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com