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ORST

Oregon State 23 at California 37

CAL
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:18 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Matt Anderson 49 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +4.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:35: Matt Anderson 31 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +4.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:09: Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +15.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 0:23: Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +15.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:30: Vic Enwere run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +9.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:09ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:47CAL 4th & 11 at ORST 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:32ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.1%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:19ORST 4th & 10 at CAL 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:11CAL 4th & 1 at ORST 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%−2.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:41ORST 4th & 6 at CAL 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:14ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:35CAL 4th & 8 at ORST 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00ORST 4th & 16 at ORST 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−3.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:10ORST 4th & 10 at CAL 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:16ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:16CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:12CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:09ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:23CAL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:30CAL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4435% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
64.7%
Thomas Tyner run for 21 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
64.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+3
64.7%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
64.7%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
64.7%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
64.7%
Thomas Tyner run for 6 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
64.7%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Tuli Wily-MatagiSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+11
64.7%
Darell Garretson run for 11 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
62.6%
Tuli Wily-Matagi pass complete to Ryan Nall for 26 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0063% → 65%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
63.1%
Patrick Laird run for 16 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
63.4%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
63.3%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+13
63.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 13 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
63.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 11 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
63.7%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Kyle White) to the OrgSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
63.7%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-15
63.7%
Bowers, Ross pass complete to Wharton III, Vi for 6 yards to the OSU6, fumble by Wharton III, Vi recovered by CAL Wharton III, Vi at OSU6, PENALTY CAL personal foul (Curhan, Jake) 15 yards to the OSU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 20
OPP 27
+15
63.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 3 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, roughing passer (Jalen Moore) to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
63.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
65.0%
Patrick Laird run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
64.0%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
64.0%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+9
64.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Andre Bodden for 9 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
64.3%
Nick Porebski punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 5:2565% → 69%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
64.6%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+7
64.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 7 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
64.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 9 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+9
64.9%
Patrick Laird run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
65.0%
Patrick Laird run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
65.0%
Patrick Laird run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 1
OPP 7
-1
65.0%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+4
64.7%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
65.0%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-12
65.0%
Ross Bowers sacked by Bright Ugwoegbu for a loss of 12 yards to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
68.5%
Vic Wharton III 14 Yd pass from Ross Bowers (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:0732% → 31%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.8%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
67.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
67.6%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
67.5%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
67.8%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
68.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Ryan NallSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+19
68.6%
Nick Porebski punt for 47 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 19 yds to the Cal 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:4269% → 71%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
69.3%
Patrick Laird run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
70.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 7 yds to the OrgSt 37 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 13
OPP 47
+20
69.6%
Patrick Laird run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
71.3%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
71.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
70.6%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+45
70.6%
Matt Anderson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7FG
16 plays · 46 yds · 6:2128% → 27%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
71.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
71.2%
Thomas Tyner run for no gain to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+5
71.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+1
74.2%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
73.8%
Thomas Tyner run for no gain to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+14
74.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 14 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
73.1%
Ryan Nall run for 11 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
72.3%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+6
71.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 6 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
71.4%
Thomas Tyner run for no gain to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
71.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Ryan NallSimilar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
72.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Noah Togiai, broken up by Evan WeaverSimilar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
73.2%
Jordan Choukair 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8DOWNS
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+23
73.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 23 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
74.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 8 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+1
74.8%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
74.4%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
73.5%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the OrgSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:2627% → 31%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
72.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 25 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
69.9%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+4
69.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-2
70.8%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 31 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
68.8%
Jordan Choukair 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 0:3168% → 77%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
68.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 14Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+16
68.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 16 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
68.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 27 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
71.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
70.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 11 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+49
76.7%
Matt Anderson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11FUMBLE
12 plays · 75 yds · 0:0073% → 75%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
72.9%
Patrick Laird run for 8 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+12
73.4%
Patrick Laird run for 12 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
73.8%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
74.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 6 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
74.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+18
74.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 18 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
75.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Jalen Moore) to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
75.2%
Ross Bowers run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 18
-1
75.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+10
74.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Bright Ugwoegbu) to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
75.2%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 8 Patrick Laird fumbled, forced by Kee Whetzel, recovered by OrgSt Kalani VakameilaloSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
73.3%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+5
73.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 5 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
74.2%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
74.8%
Nick Porebski punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:0778% → 81%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
78.2%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
78.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Malik McMorrisSimilar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+10
77.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 10 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
78.5%
Ross Bowers run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+10
78.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 10 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
78.5%
Ross Bowers sacked by Kee Whetzel for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+1
78.1%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+6
76.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 6 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
80.8%
Matt Anderson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2620% → 40%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Thomas Tyner for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
79.4%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
79.6%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
79.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Thomas TynerSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
79.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the Cal 36 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Hamilton Anoa'i) to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
77.5%
Darell Garretson sacked by Raymond Davison III and James Looney for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 15
OWN 46
-5
79.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Sumner Houston) to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+46
79.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 33 yds to the CALIFORNIA 26 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, roughing passer (Tevin Paul) to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
75.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 8 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
60.1%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 1:4167% → 86%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
66.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
69.1%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
69.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Brandon Singleton for 8 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
70.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 5 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+18
70.6%
Patrick Laird run for 18 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:1716% → 14%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
84.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 4 yds Isaiah Hodgins fumbled, forced by Elijah Hicks, recovered by OrgSt Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+2
84.3%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 25
-12
84.7%
Garretson, D. pass complete to Bradford, T. for 7 yards to the OSU32, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Togiai, Noah) 12 yards to the OSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 13
0
85.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 13
0
86.4%
Alex Bland punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:5986% → 96%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
86.4%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+8
86.5%
Patrick Laird run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
86.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 18 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
86.8%
Laird, Patrick rush for 3 yards to the OSU19 (Payne, Wesley;Morris, David), PENALTY OSU substitution infraction (Napoleon, P.) 5 yards to the OSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 5
OPP 17
+1
86.8%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+5
86.8%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
86.8%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
96.4%
Vic Enwere run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18FG
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:154% → 7%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
96.1%
Darell Garretson run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 9 Darell Garretson fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Darell GarretsonSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+6
96.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 6 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+16
96.2%
Darell Garretson run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+34
95.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 34 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
95.3%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+17
95.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 17 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
95.0%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
95.0%
Darell Garretson run for no gain to the Cal 13Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
95.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
93.5%
Jordan Choukair 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19END OF GAME
16 plays · 34 yds · 4:4296% → 99%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
96.0%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
96.0%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+6
96.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 6 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.1%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
97.5%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-5
97.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Kamryn Bennett) to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+17
97.6%
Patrick Laird run for 17 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
97.8%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+8
98.2%
Vic Enwere run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
98.2%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-2
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-2
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:09
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
-15.8
TD · Q3 0:23
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
+15.4
TD · Q4 10:30
Vic Enwere run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com