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ARIZ

Arizona 35 at USC 49

USC
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:45 · Josh Pollack punt for 37 yds , Ajene Harris returns for 9 yds to the Ariz 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Pregame prior+14.3Home team on offense+6.4Score differential+1.9Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:30: Khalil Tate run for 32 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +8.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:56: Aca'Cedric Ware run for 42 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +8.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:19: Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 16 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +8.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:23: Zach Green run for 3 yds for a TD (Khalil Tate pass to Tony Ellison for Two-Point Conversion) USC Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — ARIZ win probability +32.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:37: Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +25.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00USC 4th & 1 at ARIZ 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:24ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:17ARIZ 4th & 9 at USC 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:26USC 4th & 1 at USC 42, up 4
    Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:26USC 4th & 1 at USC 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:45ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:14ARIZ 4th & 11 at USC 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:53USC 4th & 15 at ARIZ 37, up 15
    Close callPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:07ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 21, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:43USC 4th & 1 at USC 22, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:49ARIZ 4th & 24 at ARIZ 20, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−2.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:22USC 4th & 12 at USC 18, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:17ARIZ 4th & 4 at USC 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−0.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:14USC 4th & 4 at USC 33, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 8:50USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:04USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:04USC Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:30ARIZ Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:17ARIZ Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:56USC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:19ARIZ Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:23ARIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    35.5%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:37USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−1.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:09USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 63 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
72.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
72.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
72.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 13 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+29
72.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 29 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
72.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+1
72.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+5
72.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 5 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
72.0%
Sam Darnold run for no gain to the Ariz 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT TD
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
71.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+5
71.5%
Tony Ellison run for 5 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+7
71.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
71.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
71.5%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-5
71.5%
Khalil Tate sacked by Chris Hawkins for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
72.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 12 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
72.3%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 46Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
72.5%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
72.7%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
72.9%
Josh Pollack punt for 52 yds, downed at the USC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4INT
12 plays · 97 yds · 4:2973% → 75%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
72.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the USC 10 USC Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyler Vaughns) to the USC 5Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 7
OWN 5
+10
72.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 10 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
73.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 11 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
73.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the USC 27Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+15
73.0%
[NHSG], Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Burnett, Deonta (Whittaker, J.), PENALTY ARIZ roughing passer (Young Jr., S.) 15 yards to the USC42, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
73.4%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+13
73.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 13 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
73.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 21 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
73.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 18 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the Ariz 1Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
73.7%
[NHSG], Ware, Aca'Cedri rush for 2 yards to the ARIZ1 (Schooler, C.), PENALTY ARIZ 12 men on the field 2 yards to the ARIZ1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.5%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted, touchback. Dane Cruikshank return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:0327% → 30%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
73.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
73.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 10 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
73.0%
Khalil Tate run for 11 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
72.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, personal foul (Josh Fatu) to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
72.3%
Khalil Tate run for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
71.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the USC 31Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
72.3%
Khalil Tate run for 3 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
71.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Jamie Nunley for 5 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-14
71.7%
Khalil Tate sacked by Malik Dorton for a loss of 14 yards to the USC 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 37
+10
73.1%
Khalil Tate run for 10 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
70.2%
Lucas Havrisik 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
15 plays · 67 yds · 5:2171% → 80%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
70.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
71.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
71.1%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 42Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
70.2%
N/A puntSimilar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+1
71.1%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
72.0%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+8
72.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 8 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
72.5%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+22
72.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 22 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
72.9%
[NHSG], PENALTY USC false start (Voorhees, Andre) 5 yards to the ARIZ27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 15
OPP 27
0
72.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+5
72.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 5 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+22
79.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 22 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
78.3%
Khalil Tate run for 3 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
78.3%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+2
78.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 2 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+9
79.0%
Josh Pollack punt for 37 yds , Ajene Harris returns for 9 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:3380% → 87%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
80.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+17
80.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 17 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
80.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+27
86.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 27 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 3:4416% → 15%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
84.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 8 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
83.7%
Khalil Tate run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
50
+7
83.6%
Tyrell Johnson run for 7 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
83.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
83.5%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
83.7%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+14
85.0%
[NHSG], Tate, K. pass incomplete to Johnson, T. (Hawkins, Chris), PENALTY USC pass interference (Hawkins, Chris) 14 yards to the USC24, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
84.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-3
84.0%
Khalil Tate sacked by Jordan Iosefa for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 25Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
85.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tyrell JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+43
84.9%
Lucas Havrisik 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 1:1887% → 87%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
87.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 18 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
87.2%
Sam Darnold run for 10 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
87.4%
[NHSG], PENALTY USC false start (Imatorbhebhe, D) 5 yards to the ARIZ37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 15
OPP 37
-10
87.1%
[NHSG], Jones, Ronald rush for 13 yards to the ARIZ24 (FlanniganFowles;Belknap, J.), PENALTY USC holding (Edoga, Chuma) 10 yards to the ARIZ47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 25
OPP 47
0
87.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe, broken up by Lorenzo BurnsSimilar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 25
OPP 47
+10
87.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 10 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 15
OPP 37
0
86.8%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 15
OPP 37
0
86.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 20 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:3915% → 11%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
85.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 18Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
85.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun Brown, broken up by Isaiah LangleySimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+3
85.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
89.0%
Josh Pollack punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
88.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete, broken up by Demetrius Flannigan-FowlesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13FUMBLE
14 plays · 64 yds · 0:0016% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
84.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 5 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+3
83.9%
Khalil Tate run for 3 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
83.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+15
84.5%
USC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
83.3%
[NHSG], PENALTY USC offside (Jones, Jack) 5 yards to the USC40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+5
82.9%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
82.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 7 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
82.2%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
83.0%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
82.2%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to J.J. TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
82.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tyrell JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+11
83.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 11 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
82.2%
Khalil Tate run for 9 yds to the USC 4 Khalil Tate fumbled, forced by Jordan Iosefa, recovered by USC Jack JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
87.2%
USC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-2 Yards) to the USC 2Similar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
87.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 5
-2
87.2%
[NHSG], Jones, Ronald rush for no gain to the USC5 (Fields II, T.), PENALTY USC holding (Edoga, Chuma) 2 yards to the USC3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+2
87.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+8
86.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 8 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
87.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+4
87.4%
Sam Darnold run for 4 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+1
86.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 1 yd to the USC 22Similar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
86.4%
Reid Budrovich punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 34 , Shun Brown returns for no gain to the Ariz 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
87.0%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
87.4%
Khalil Tate sacked by Uchenna Nwosu for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 15
OWN 29
-9
88.2%
Khalil Tate sacked by Marvell Tell III and John Houston Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 24
OWN 20
0
88.3%
Josh Pollack punt for 26 yds, downed at the Ariz 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:2191% → 97%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+41
90.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 41 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:344% → 13%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
96.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 18 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
96.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 14 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
96.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
95.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 2 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
87.3%
Khalil Tate run for 32 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
92.1%
Sam Darnold run for 1 yd to the USC 23Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
91.8%
Sam Darnold sacked by Luca Bruno for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 18Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+8
91.3%
Reid Budrovich punt for 62 yds , Shun Brown returns for 8 yds to the Ariz 26 USC Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 0:599% → 18%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
90.6%
Khalil Tate run for 21 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
90.4%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
88.9%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Jamie NunleySimilar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
89.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+30
82.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 30 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2186% → 95%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
85.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 20 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
87.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+1
87.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+7
86.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
94.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 42 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:378% → 19%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+54
92.4%
Khalil Tate run for 54 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
90.2%
Khalil Tate run for 5 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
90.2%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the USC 16Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
81.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 16 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
87.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
87.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
86.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+31
86.0%
Reid Budrovich punt for 45 yds , Shun Brown returns for 31 yds to the USC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:1918% → 53%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
82.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 12 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
80.6%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd to the USC 34Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+11
80.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 11 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
80.1%
Khalil Tate run for 7 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+13
80.1%
Khalil Tate run for 13 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.2%
Zach Green run for 3 yds for a TD (Khalil Tate pass to Tony Ellison for Two-Point Conversion) USC Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:4160% → 92%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
59.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 19 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
64.1%
[NHSG], Ware, Aca'Cedri rush for 16 yards to the ARIZ37 (FlanniganFowles), PENALTY USC holding (Voorhees, Andre) 10 yards to the USC37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+21
59.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 21 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
65.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+33
62.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 33 yds to the Ariz 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
66.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 3 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
66.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 9 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
85.9%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Ajene Harris return for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 2:1490% → 98%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
90.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
90.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+11
90.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+52
91.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 52 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.8%
[NHSG], Tate, K. pass incomplete to Cooper, D., PENALTY USC holding (Harris, Ajene) 10 yards to the ARIZ35, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
95.5%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
95.3%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
95.5%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted John Houston Jr. return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:2398% → 99%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
50
+26
97.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 26 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
98.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+4
98.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+16
98.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 16 yds to the Ariz 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 8Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 10Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:23
Zach Green run for 3 yds for a TD (Khalil Tate pass to Tony Ellison for Two-Point Conversion) USC Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
-32.9
TD · Q4 5:37
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
+25.2
TD · Q4 12:19
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 16 yds for a TD (Josh Pollack KICK)
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com