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CAL

California 28 at Colorado 44

COLO
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:20 · Team run for no gain to the Cal 46 Team fumbled, recovered by Cal James Looney
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Home team on offense+14.5Pregame prior+7.0Score differential+6.6Garbage-time factor+4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:42: Steven Montez run for 7 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +5.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:53: Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 65 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +6.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:16: Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 27 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +5.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:17: Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 23 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +5.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:24: Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +9.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CAL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:57CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:20CAL 4th & 2 at COLO 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:30CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:05COLO 4th & 8 at CAL 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:59CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.1%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 15 at COLO 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:20COLO 4th & 1 at CAL 46, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−3.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:14CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 47, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:41COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:13CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 23, down 13
    Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:17CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 21, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:26COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 42, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:22COLO 4th & 5 at CAL 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:20COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:33CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:42COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:53COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:16CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:17COLO Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:24CAL Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:34COLO Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:50CAL Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 12 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
66.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Phillip LindsaySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
66.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
66.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce Bobo, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
66.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
65.9%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
65.9%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
65.9%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
66.0%
Dylan Klumph punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:3966% → 68%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
65.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 8 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
66.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 36Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
65.9%
N/A run for 3 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
65.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
66.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+39
66.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 39 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
66.1%
Beau Bisharat run for 3 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-10
66.1%
Steven Montez sacked by James Looney for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+22
67.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 22 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4733% → 37%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.4%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
67.4%
Patrick Laird run for 8 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
67.2%
Patrick Laird run for 13 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
67.0%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+7
67.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 7 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
66.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Patrick Laird, broken up by Rick GamboaSimilar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+3
67.2%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
66.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 13 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
66.6%
Vic Enwere run for 15 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
66.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Malik McMorris for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 15Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
63.4%
Vic Wharton III pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5165% → 70%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
64.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 21Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-3
64.7%
Steven Montez run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 18Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+20
64.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 20 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
65.3%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Gerrad Kough) to the Colo 33Similar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+2
64.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+58
64.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 58 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
70.1%
Steven Montez run for 7 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4231% → 30%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
68.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Brandon Singleton for 14 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
68.0%
Ross Bowers sacked by George Frazier for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+5
68.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 5 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
68.6%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 39
-7
69.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 50 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7TD
7 plays · 96 yds · 2:5769% → 77%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
69.2%
Lindsay, Philli rush for 3 yards to the COLO7 (Weaver, Evan;Tartabull, Quen), PENALTY COLO personal foul (Irwin, Jeromy) 2 yards to the COLO2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 12
OWN 2
0
69.2%
Beau Bisharat run for no gain to the Colo 2Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+1
69.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 3Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 11
OWN 3
+21
68.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 21 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
69.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
69.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
76.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 65 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
75.4%
COLORADO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.3%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
75.2%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
75.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete, broken up by Derek McCartneySimilar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+26
75.7%
Dylan Klumph punt for 50 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 26 yds to the Colo 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:1179% → 83%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
78.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 9 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+10
78.6%
Steven Montez run for 10 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
78.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+5
78.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+4
78.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
78.6%
Devin Ross run for 11 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
78.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
78.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
78.2%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
82.7%
James Stefanou 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
20 plays · 79 yds · 5:4319% → 25%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
81.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
81.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Kamryn Bennett) to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+8
81.8%
Bowers, Ross pass incomplete to Noa, Kanawai (Fisher, Nick), PENALTY COLO pass interference (Fisher, Nick) 8 yards to the CAL24, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
81.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Gavin ReinwaldSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
81.6%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+11
81.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 11 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
81.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
81.2%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+9
81.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 9 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+4
81.0%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
50
+1
80.2%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the Colo 49Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
80.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+14
80.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 14 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
79.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 4 yds Jeremiah Hawkins fumbled, forced by Evan Worthington,Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
79.3%
Ross Bowers run for 5 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
79.9%
Malik McMorris run for 3 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-11
79.3%
Ross Bowers sacked by Drew Lewis for a loss of 11 yards to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 21
OPP 34
+7
80.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 7 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 14
OPP 27
+27
74.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 27 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 1:1077% → 82%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
76.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
77.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 5 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
76.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
77.1%
Steven Montez run for 16 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
77.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Phillip LindsaySimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
77.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 15 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
77.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 7 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+39
81.7%
James Stefanou 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
80.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 14 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
80.0%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+10
80.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
79.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 7 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
79.0%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+4
79.1%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
79.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Malik McMorris, broken up by Derek McCartneySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
79.3%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 42
0
80.7%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
81.2%
Dylan Klumph punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
83.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 12 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
83.7%
Steven Montez run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 30 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Kunaszyk) to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
84.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
85.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
84.4%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 6 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
83.7%
Team run for no gain to the Cal 46 Team fumbled, recovered by Cal James LooneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
83.2%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the Cal 47Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
83.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Gavin Reinwald, broken up by Nick FisherSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
83.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
84.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Colo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:3886% → 85%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
86.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 8 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 2
OWN 26
-13
86.4%
Lindsay, Philli rush for 3 yards to the COLO29 (Davis, Ashtyn), PENALTY COLO personal foul (Haigler, Aaron) 13 yards to the COLO13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+14
85.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 14 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
85.8%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
86.3%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-12
86.3%
Steven Montez sacked by Raymond Davison III for a loss of 12 yards to the Colo 17Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 22
OWN 17
+11
85.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 11 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 11
OWN 28
+5
85.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 63 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 5 yds to the Cal 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
85.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Jake Curhan) to the Cal 9Similar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 15
OWN 9
0
85.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Brandon SingletonSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 15
OWN 9
0
85.7%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 15
OWN 9
+14
85.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 14 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
85.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 51 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for no gain to the Colo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 5:5589% → 99%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
88.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+10
88.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 10 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
88.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
89.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 8 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
89.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
89.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Beau Bisharat for 6 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+11
89.7%
Beau Bisharat run for 11 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
89.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Cal 35Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
89.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 8 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+3
89.3%
Steven Montez run for 3 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
93.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-4
93.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the Cal 13 COLORADO Penalty, Offensive holding (Bryce Bobo) to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-5
93.1%
COLORADO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+5
92.9%
Steven Montez run for 5 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+23
98.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 23 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
98.2%
Ross Bowers sacked by Jase Franke for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-9
98.2%
Ross Bowers sacked by Evan Worthington for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+7
98.4%
Dylan Klumph punt for 53 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 7 yds to the Colo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
98.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+7
98.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
98.7%
Steven Montez run for 1 yd to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
98.6%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 1:071% → 11%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
98.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 8 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+11
98.6%
Patrick Laird run for 11 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+51
98.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 51 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
98.3%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
89.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 3:0295% → 98%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
95.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Chris Bounds for 13 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
95.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 14 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
96.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+7
95.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
96.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 11 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
96.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
97.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-3
97.5%
Steven Montez sacked by TEAM for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
97.8%
James Stefanou 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22INT TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:412% → 0%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.3%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
98.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 4 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+9
98.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 9 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+25
98.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 25 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
97.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 5 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+12
97.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cameron Goode for 12 yds to the Colo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+100
99.7%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted for a TD Nick Fisher return for 100 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:440% → 2%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 10 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
99.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 18 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Enwere for 8 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Drew LewisSimilar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+5
99.7%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+26
99.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 26 yds to the Colo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 65
OPP 0
0
98.3%
Anderson, Matt kickoff 12 yards to the CAL47, out-of-bounds, COLO ball on CAL47, PENALTY CAL offside off-setting, PENALTY COLO illegal batting off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 47Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:24
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
-9
TD · Q2 11:53
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 65 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q2 1:16
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 27 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com