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USC

USC 48 at Arizona State 17

ASU
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:36 · Corbin Jountti run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 181Home team on offense−52.4Score differential−32.3Pregame prior−0.4Garbage-time factor−10.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−10.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:24: Ronald Jones II 67 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +9.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:02: Tyler Vaughns 19 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +8.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:00: Kyle Williams 47 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Brandon Ruiz Kick) — ASU win probability +18.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:30: Manny Wilkins 1 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick) — ASU win probability +8.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:10: Ronald Jones II 64 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +8.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:41ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:20USC 4th & 6 at USC 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:50ASU 4th & 3 at USC 21, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:13USC 4th & 10 at USC 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:43ASU 4th & 15 at ASU 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:38ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:42ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:11USC 4th & 7 at ASU 36, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:53ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 45, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:56ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 20, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:52USC 4th & 19 at ASU 33, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.8
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:34ASU 4th & 1 at USC 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−2.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:57ASU 4th & 11 at ASU 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:03USC 4th & 2 at ASU 20, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−4.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:12ASU 4th & 7 at USC 30, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:10USC 4th & 1 at ASU 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:36USC 4th & 5 at ASU 15, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:23ASU 4th & 17 at ASU 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:36USC 4th & 12 at ASU 12, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:27USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:25USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:24USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:02USC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:00ASU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:30ASU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:10USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:03USC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2365% → 65%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
35.4%
Sam Darnold sacked by DJ Calhoun for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 15Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+8
35.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+12
35.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 12 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
36.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
36.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 5 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
36.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 47Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
36.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+21
36.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 21 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
35.2%
Deontay Burnett 32 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3936% → 35%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.6%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
35.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
35.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q1 10:41
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+21
35.3%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 47 yds , Ajene Harris returns for 21 yds to the USC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1565% → 65%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
35.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
35.1%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 49Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
35.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
35.5%
Reid Budrovich punt for 49 yds, downed at the ArzSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4FG
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:2536% → 37%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
35.6%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+70
35.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 70 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
36.6%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+4
36.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Curtis Hodges for 4 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
36.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
37.4%
Brandon Ruiz 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3363% → 62%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
37.3%
Sam Darnold sacked by Christian Sam for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 25Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
38.2%
Reid Budrovich punt for 47 yds , N'Keal Harry returns for no gain to the ArzSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2737% → 37%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
37.4%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
37.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-7
37.0%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 15
OWN 23
0
36.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1362% → 66%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
37.7%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
38.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (Andrew Vorhees) to the USC 23Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
38.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Tashon Smallwood) to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
37.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
37.1%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
33.6%
Tyler Vaughns 42 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3734% → 33%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.6%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
33.7%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
33.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
32.7%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 41 yds , Ajene Harris returns for no gain to the USC 30 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:0866% → 76%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
33.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 9 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
33.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
24.2%
Ronald Jones II 67 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:3326% → 26%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
26.2%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
26.4%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
26.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
25.9%
Nick Ralston run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
26.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Nick RalstonSimilar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
26.0%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:2277% → 79%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+39
23.4%
Sam Darnold run for 39 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
22.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 8 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+5
21.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
21.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
20.7%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
20.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 7
OPP 36
-4
21.3%
Sam Darnold sacked by Christian Sam for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 40 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Jay Jay Wilson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0725% → 24%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
25.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
25.0%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
24.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+1
24.1%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 44 yds , Ajene Harris returns for 1 yd to the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 2:4280% → 91%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+37
20.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 37 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
20.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+15
19.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 15 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
19.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
19.0%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
18.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
9.9%
Tyler Vaughns 19 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
9.5%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Dasmond Tautalatasi) to the 50 yard line, D. Tautalatasi ejected for targetingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:549% → 8%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
9.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 1 yd to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+8
8.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Newsome for 8 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
8.7%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 4:13
4TH & 1
OWN 25
-5
8.4%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
7.6%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FG
14 plays · 29 yds · 2:5892% → 89%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
8.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
7.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 6 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+2
7.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
7.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Vavae MalepeaiSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
7.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
6.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+5
6.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 5 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+8
6.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
5.8%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chuma Edoga) to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+1
5.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 1 yd to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 19
OPP 33
0
4.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 19
OPP 33
0
4.1%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 19
OPP 33
+51
11.4%
Chase McGrath 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16END OF HALF
10 plays · 76 yds · 0:3911% → 23%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
10.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 5 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+12
9.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to John Humphrey for 12 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
10.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Newsome for 2 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
5.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
4.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 13 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (N'Keal Harry) to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
22.7%
Kyle Williams 47 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Brandon Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2114% → 23%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
14.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 16 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
15.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
15.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 3 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
15.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to John HumphreySimilar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
15.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to John Humphrey for 6 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+3
15.1%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+6
14.5%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
14.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+17
14.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 17 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
14.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 15 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.2%
Manny Wilkins 1 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:1181% → 92%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
19.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 24Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+22
18.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 22 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
17.2%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 36Similar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+64
8.2%
Ronald Jones II 64 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0812% → 10%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
11.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 16 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ArzStSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+32
10.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 32 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
12.1%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
11.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-8
10.6%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 11
OWN 47
+12
9.5%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 27 yds, downed at the ARIZONAST 26 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Deion Guignard) to the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:4793% → 96%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
6.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
6.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 20 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
5.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Christian Sam) to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+3
5.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 2
OPP 20
-5
4.1%
USC Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-5
4.0%
USC Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
4.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+10
4.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 10 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
4.3%
Chase McGrath 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:446% → 5%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
6.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 13 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
6.1%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+17
6.2%
Demario Richard run for 17 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
6.4%
USC Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
6.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Cohl Cabral) to the USC 38Similar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+2
6.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 2 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 13
OPP 36
-5
5.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (A.J. McCollum) to the USC 41Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 18
OPP 41
-4
5.5%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 45Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+15
5.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 15 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 1:12
4TH & 7
OPP 30
0
4.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 5:3097% → 98%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
3.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+8
2.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
2.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
2.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
2.4%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+6
2.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 6 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
2.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
2.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
2.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+6
2.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Joseph Lewis IV for 6 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
1.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
1.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 5 yds to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
1.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Trevon SidneySimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
1.8%
Chase McGrath 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:072% → 2%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
2.2%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Uchenna Nwosu for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-5
2.1%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Uchenna Nwosu for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+5
1.9%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (Oluwole Betiku Jr.) to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-1
1.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Uchenna Nwosu for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
1.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 6:3999% → 100%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
1.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+13
1.1%
Matt Fink run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
1.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+7
0.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+4
0.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
0.8%
Matt Fink run for no gain to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
0.8%
James Toland IV run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+11
0.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Tashon Smallwood) to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
0.6%
Corbin Jountti run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.6%
Reuben Peters run for no gain to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
0.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
0.5%
Corbin Jountti run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25INT TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:261% → 0%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
0.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Kyle Williams for 19 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+37
0.1%
Ykili Ross 37 Yd Interception Return (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
0.1%
Mark Cosgrove run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
0.1%
Mark Cosgrove run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Kyle Williams 47 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Brandon Ruiz Kick)
+18.8
TD · Q2 14:24
Ronald Jones II 67 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)
-9
TD · Q3 10:10
Ronald Jones II 64 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)
-8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com