Try the model
STAN

Stanford 15 at Oregon State 14

ORST
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2017 · Reser Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:31 · Jake Bailey punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior−2.9Home team on offense+10.1Garbage-time factor+3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:52: Darell Garretson 3 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick) — ORST win probability +7.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:55: Thomas Tyner 18 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick) — ORST win probability +15.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:24: Jet Toner 40 Yd Field Goal — STAN win probability +16.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:20: JJ Arcega-Whiteside 3 Yd pass from Keller Chryst (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — STAN win probability +62.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:15: Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 16 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST down — ORST win probability +15.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 13:22STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:52ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:27STAN 4th & 10 at ORST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:15ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:57STAN 4th & 5 at ORST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:09STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:37ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 30, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:57STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:27STAN 4th & 10 at ORST 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:31ORST 4th & 8 at STAN 34, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:24STAN 4th & 5 at ORST 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−14.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:00ORST 4th & 18 at STAN 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−6.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:04STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 24, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:56ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 39, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−2.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:31STAN 4th & 16 at STAN 19, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:02STAN 4th & 10 at ORST 40, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−3.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−5.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2STAN made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 5:52ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:55ORST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:20STAN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.5 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.3%−2.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2389% → 88%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
11.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+2
11.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
11.7%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 6
OWN 23
-5
11.8%
Jake Bailey punt for 45 yds , Timmy Hernandez returns for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1812% → 12%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
11.8%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-8
12.1%
Darell Garretson sacked by Jordan Perez for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 15
OWN 22
0
12.2%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
12.3%
Nick Porebski punt for 6 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3MISSED FG
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:1788% → 86%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
12.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
12.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 7 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
12.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
12.9%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
13.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-1
13.4%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Connor Wedington for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
13.8%
Jet Toner 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:0514% → 16%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
14.0%
Ryan Nall run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
14.4%
Thomas Tyner run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+9
14.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
15.3%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
15.6%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
15.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
15.6%
Nick Porebski punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 7:0784% → 82%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
15.6%
Keller Chryst run for 3 yds to the Stanf 18Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
15.8%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+12
16.2%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Kaden Smith for 12 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
16.1%
Trevor Speights run for 1 yd to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
16.4%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 5 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+25
16.6%
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 25 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
16.1%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 15
OPP 44
-11
16.5%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (-11 Yards) to the Stanf 45Similar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 26
OWN 45
+3
16.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 3 yds JJ Arcega-Whiteside fumbled, recovered by Stanf JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 24
OWN 47
+16
17.3%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 16 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+9
17.4%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Connor Wedington for 9 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
17.1%
Trevor Speights run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
17.5%
Trevor Speights run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
18.2%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
17.9%
Jet Toner 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:5319% → 31%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
18.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sumner Houston) to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+14
18.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 14 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
19.8%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
20.1%
Ryan Nall run for 20 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
21.4%
Ryan Nall run for 15 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
22.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+5
22.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 5 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+8
21.8%
Ryan Nall run for 8 yds to the Stanf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
22.9%
Fred Lauina run for 8 yds to the Stanf 5Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+1
23.3%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the Stanf 4Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+1
22.9%
Darell Garretson run for 1 yd to the Stanf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.6%
Darell Garretson 3 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:3172% → 70%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
27.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
26.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
27.4%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
27.7%
Trevor Speights run for 5 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+1
27.1%
Keller Chryst run for 1 yd to the Stanf 44Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 4
OWN 44
-5
28.8%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 39Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
30.5%
Jake Bailey punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Timmy Hernandez at the OrgSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2231% → 32%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
31.3%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
31.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
32.2%
Thomas Tyner run for no gain to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
31.8%
Nick Porebski punt for 37 yds, downed at the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2867% → 64%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
32.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
33.3%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
34.6%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
35.6%
Jake Bailey punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Timmy Hernandez at the OrgSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
34.0%
Darell Garretson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 16 Darell Garretson fumbled, recovered by Stanf Harrison PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1871% → 70%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
29.2%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-5
29.2%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+5
31.0%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 5 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
33.5%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
30.1%
Jet Toner 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
33.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5233% → 53%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.1%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
33.8%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
33.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 4 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+15
33.4%
STANFORD Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ben Edwards) to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
37.4%
Darell Garretson sacked by Eric Cotton and Harrison Phillips for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+38
37.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 23 yds to the OREGONST 33 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Roughing Passer (Joey Alfieri) to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST down. STANFORD Joey Alfieri ejected for TargetingSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
53.2%
Thomas Tyner 18 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:2152% → 51%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
48.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 12 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
47.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 11 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
46.6%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Donald Stewart for 12 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
46.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-1
47.8%
Trevor Speights run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
48.7%
Keller Chryst pass intercepted Omar Hicks-Onu return for no gain to the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:4355% → 65%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
54.5%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
55.2%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+10
54.2%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Holding (Malik Antoine) to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
58.4%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
59.9%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+15
59.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 15 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
65.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 3 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-1
67.1%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
65.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for no gain to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+52
65.0%
Jordan Choukair 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:5641% → 52%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
59.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+15
58.1%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 15 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
60.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
61.6%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+14
62.0%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Connor Wedington for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
59.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+1
61.5%
Keller Chryst run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
64.5%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
48.4%
Jet Toner 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT
15 plays · 28 yds · 6:0057% → 69%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
57.4%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-10
57.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
56.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+15
55.4%
STANFORD Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Justin Reid) to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
61.2%
Thomas Tyner run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
64.6%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
65.7%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
70.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 13 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
71.5%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the Stanf 39Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-10
71.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sumner Houston) to the Stanf 49Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+2
70.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 2 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 18
OPP 47
0
69.1%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
68.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Brandt-Sims at the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3141% → 34%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
59.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
60.7%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Connor WedingtonSimilar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
64.0%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
65.6%
Jake Bailey punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:3177% → 81%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
77.0%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
78.1%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+7
78.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 7 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.5%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
83.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
82.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
80.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Connor Wedington at the Stanf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1932% → 24%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.3%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Cameron ScarlettSimilar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.0%
Keller Chryst run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
72.4%
Keller Chryst sacked by Jonathan Willis for a loss of 8 yards to the Stanf 19Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
76.1%
Jake Bailey punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4685% → 89%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
85.3%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
87.4%
Thomas Tyner run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
88.9%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 40 Ryan Nall fumbled, forced by Harrison Phillips, recovered by Stanf Harrison PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22TD
13 plays · 40 yds · 2:0425% → 90%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
74.6%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
75.5%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
77.1%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+25
80.0%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Kaden Smith for 25 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
70.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 3 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+4
71.9%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 4 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+3
78.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
77.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.6%
JJ Arcega-Whiteside 3 Yd pass from Keller Chryst (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+2
10.0%
Chryst, Keller pass attempt failed, PENALTY OREGONST pass interference 2 yards to the OREGONST1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
10.2%
Chryst, Keller pass attempt failed, PENALTY OREGONST pass interference 0 yards to the OREGONST1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23INT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:1531% → 23%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
31.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 16 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
31.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
27.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 15 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
22.7%
Darell Garretson pass intercepted Brandon Simmons return for 9 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:20
JJ Arcega-Whiteside 3 Yd pass from Keller Chryst (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-62.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-22.7
FG · Q3 0:24
Jet Toner 40 Yd Field Goal
-16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com