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Oregon 14 at UCLA 31

UCLA
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:39 · Adam Stack punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+12.2Home team on offense+4.3Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:34: Braxton Burmeister run for 7 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +7.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:37: Braxton Burmeister run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +14.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:14: Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 22 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +18.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:30: Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 15 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST down — UCLA win probability +5.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:03: Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +9.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:47UCLA 4th & 2 at ORE 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:47UCLA 4th & 1 at ORE 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:16ORE 4th & 17 at ORE 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:17ORE 4th & 1 at UCLA 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−2.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:34UCLA 4th & 16 at UCLA 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:39ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:20UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:36UCLA 4th & 5 at ORE 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.7%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−8.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:36ORE 4th & 11 at UCLA 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:18ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.7%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:11ORE 4th & 5 at UCLA 29, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:50ORE 4th & 4 at UCLA 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.2
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:54UCLA 4th & 4 at ORE 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:16UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:37UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:34ORE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:37ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:14UCLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:03UCLA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
68.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
68.9%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-2
68.9%
Josh Rosen sacked by La'Mar Winston Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
68.9%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 55 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for no gain to the Oregn 3 Dillon Mitchell fumbled, recovered by Oregn Dillon MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+12
68.7%
Royce Freeman run for 12 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
68.7%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+11
68.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Cam McCormick for 11 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
68.7%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+13
68.7%
Darrian Felix run for 13 yds to the Oregn 45 Darrian Felix fumbled, forced by Jaleel Wadood, recovered by UCLA Jacob Tuioti-Mariner , return for no gain to the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:3169% → 71%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
68.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 8 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-1
68.9%
Austin Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+1
68.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 1 yd to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+2
68.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
68.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+4
68.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 4 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
68.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 4 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
68.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
69.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 15 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
69.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 5 yds to the Oregn 4Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.3%
Soso Jamabo run for 4 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
70.4%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Josh Woods for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
70.5%
UCLA Penalty, personal foul (Josh Woods) to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
70.1%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
70.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Royce FreemanSimilar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-2
70.5%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 12
OWN 36
-5
70.8%
OREGON Penalty, false start (Troy Dye) to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 17
OWN 31
0
70.9%
Adam Stack punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:5771% → 77%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
71.0%
Soso Jamabo run for 4 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+12
71.5%
Soso Jamabo run for 12 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
71.7%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+10
71.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 10 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
71.7%
Brandon Stephens run for 4 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+1
71.8%
Brandon Stephens run for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+31
76.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Christian Pabico for 31 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 6:0325% → 31%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.9%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
75.0%
Braxton Burmeister run for 7 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
74.8%
Kani Benoit run for 4 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
74.7%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+17
75.7%
Dillon Mitchell run for 17 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
74.9%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Nate Meadors for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
75.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+10
75.4%
Braxton Burmeister run for 10 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
76.7%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
76.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for 1 yd to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-4
76.5%
Dillon Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+10
77.4%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive holding (Jaleel Wadood) to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
76.0%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+22
76.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Charles Nelson for 22 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
69.3%
Braxton Burmeister run for 7 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
72.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 17 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
73.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-9
73.4%
Josh Rosen sacked by Troy Dye for a loss of 9 yards to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 16
OWN 36
0
71.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Christian Pabico, broken up by Ugochukwu AmadiSimilar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
71.1%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 48 yds, downed at the Oregn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
72.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 4 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
72.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
73.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for no gain to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
74.0%
Adam Stack punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
73.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 11 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
74.9%
UCLA Penalty, false start (Andre James) to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+3
74.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
74.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
73.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
72.4%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 33 yds, downed at the Oregn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
17 plays · 76 yds · 5:1626% → 46%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
73.6%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
73.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
72.9%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+15
73.1%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Nate Meadors) to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
71.5%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+7
71.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for 7 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
70.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Jaylon Redd for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+6
71.7%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+16
71.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 16 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
70.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Ryan BaySimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
70.1%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-5
71.3%
OREGON Penalty, false start (Jacob Capra) to the UCLA 14Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+10
71.8%
Darrian Felix run for 10 yds to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
70.1%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 6Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
68.9%
UCLA Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (Jaelan Phillips) to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
54.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.6%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
58.9%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
59.1%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
58.1%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
58.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Charles Nelson for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
57.5%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Charles Nelson for 4 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-6
57.6%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Jaelan Phillips for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+1
60.4%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 49
+1
61.6%
Adam Stack punt for 49 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for 1 yd to the UCLA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:2363% → 69%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
62.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 8 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 2
OWN 11
0
62.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+2
61.3%
Giovanni Gentosi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
62.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 4 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+28
62.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 28 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
65.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 12 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
66.6%
Soso Jamabo run for 6 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+7
66.6%
Soso Jamabo run for 7 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
67.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
67.4%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 5 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
66.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Demetric FeltonSimilar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
69.3%
JJ Molson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Darrian Felix run for no gain to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Charles Nelson for 9 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
65.7%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
65.6%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+13
63.7%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
63.1%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-2
62.7%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 6
OPP 42
-5
63.6%
OREGON Penalty, false start (Jake Hanson) to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
65.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
67.5%
Adam Stack punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 1:3968% → 85%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
67.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
67.5%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 4 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+12
66.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Christian Pabico for 12 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
68.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
67.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Bolu OlorunfunmiSimilar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+49
66.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Christian Pabico for 49 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
85.0%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 22 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16INT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0018% → 20%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
81.8%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
81.1%
Braxton Burmeister run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+13
81.8%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
79.9%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
79.9%
Kani Benoit run for 5 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
79.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass intercepted Colin Samuel return for no gain to the UCLA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:3085% → 84%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
84.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 15 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
84.7%
Soso Jamabo run for 1 yd to the UCLA 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
85.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren Andrews, broken up by Arrion SpringsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 20
-5
84.4%
UCLA Penalty, false start (Andre James) to the UCLA 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+8
84.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 8 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
83.8%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
84.4%
Braxton Burmeister run for 7 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
83.1%
Braxton Burmeister run for 1 yd to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
83.6%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-4
84.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 40 Braxton Burmeister fumbled, forced by Osa Odighizuwa, recovered by Oregn Braxton BurmeisterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:1487% → 97%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
87.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
87.0%
Soso Jamabo run for 15 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
87.3%
Soso Jamabo run for 1 yd to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
87.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Christian Pabico for 7 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+4
86.6%
Brandon Stephens run for 4 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
87.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 7 yds Darren Andrews fumbled, forced by Ugochukwu Amadi, recovered by UCLA Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+3
87.9%
Brandon Stephens run for 3 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
87.9%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20MISSED FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:074% → 3%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
96.1%
Royce Freeman run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
50
+16
95.6%
Royce Freeman run for 16 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
95.1%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+2
94.8%
Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
95.3%
Darrian Felix run for no gain to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+8
96.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 8 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
95.6%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
95.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+2
96.0%
Dillon Mitchell run for 2 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
96.6%
Aidan Schneider 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 45 yds · 4:5698% → 99%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
97.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
97.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 9 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for no gain to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
97.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+10
97.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 10 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
98.1%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 16 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
98.1%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 8 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
99.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+1
99.4%
Soso Jamabo run for 1 yd to the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
98.4%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Marcus Moore for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, personal foul (Marcus Moore) to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
98.4%
Darrian Felix run for 5 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
98.3%
Darrian Felix run for no gain to the Oregn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:14
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 22 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
+18.6
TD · Q2 0:37
Braxton Burmeister run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q4 9:03
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com