2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreASU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:06 · Brandon Ruiz 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 2:33: Brandon Ruiz 30 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +4.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:40: Demario Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +20.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:45: Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +20.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:31: Tyler Huntley pass intercepted for a TD Jay Jay Wilson return for 20 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +2.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:41: Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 10:37ASU 4th & 6 at UTAH 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snapGo for it25.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call25.5%58% to makePunt25.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 8:06ASU 4th & 4 at UTAH 22, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snapGo for it26.5%47% to convertField goalTheir call26.5%−<0.172% to makePunt25.8%−0.7average punt
- Q1 8:06UTAH 4th & 4 at UTAH 31, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snapGo for it72.8%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.9%average punt
- Q1 2:33ASU 4th & 3 at UTAH 12, up 6Close callKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snapGo for it31.0%50% to convertField goalTheir call30.7%−0.386% to makePunt28.3%−2.7average punt
- Q2 13:18UTAH 4th & 5 at ASU 44, down 9Close callPunted · 64.2% before the snapGo for it64.4%41% to convertField goal63.4%−1.027% to makePuntTheir call64.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 8:07ASU 4th & 8 at UTAH 49, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snapGo for it41.2%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.4%average punt
- Q2 7:54UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 39, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snapGo for it58.7%−0.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.2%average punt
- Q3 10:32UTAH 4th & 9 at ASU 35, down 16Close callKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snapGo for it34.0%32% to convertField goalTheir call33.9%−0.145% to makePunt32.9%−1.1average punt
- Q3 4:39UTAH 4th & 13 at UTAH 13, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snapGo for it11.2%−3.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.0%average punt
- Q3 3:44ASU 4th & 14 at ASU 31, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snapGo for it89.8%−4.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.9%average punt
- Q4 14:47UTAH 4th & 13 at UTAH 27, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it5.1%−2.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.4%average punt
- Q4 13:23ASU 4th & 13 at UTAH 46, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.4%−1.021% to convertField goal94.3%−1.123% to makePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q4 0:44ASU 4th & 3 at UTAH 37, up 20Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%53% to convertField goal99.2%−0.140% to makePuntTheir call99.0%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q2 0:40ASU Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.1%97% to makeGo for two61.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:45ASU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.7%97% to makeGo for two84.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:31ASU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.8%45% to convert
- Q4 2:41UTAH Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.1%97% to makeGo for two1.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartASUDrive 1FG12 plays · 46 yds · 4:2327% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
73.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 3 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
73.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 6 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
73.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+5
73.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 5 yds to the Utah 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2INT4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
ASUDrive 3FG4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3529% → 29%
Q1 9:41
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+5
71.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 5 yds to the Utah 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 6 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
71.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for no gain to the Utah 31Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
70.6%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 43 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5FG14 plays · 62 yds · 4:2730% → 34%
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+11
70.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 11 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
69.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the Utah 24Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
69.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the Utah 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6PUNT13 plays · 45 yds · 4:1065% → 62%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
65.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Harrison Handley for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 10Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 11
OWN 10
-4
65.2%
Tyler Huntley sacked by JoJo Wicker for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 6Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+13
65.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 13 yds to the Utah 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+14
64.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 14 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
61.6%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan Newsome at the ArzSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT13 plays · 46 yds · 4:5937% → 43%
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+14
62.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 14 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
60.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Jaylon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
61.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to John Humphrey for 2 yds to the Utah 49Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
56.9%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Boobie Hobbs at the Utah 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
57.1%
Huntley, Tyler pass incomplete to Simpkins,Demari, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Lucas, Chase) 15 yards to the UTAH37, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+3
57.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 3 yds to the Utah 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD10 plays · 94 yds · 4:2945% → 72%
UTAHDrive 10INT4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
ASUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12FG12 plays · 40 yds · 4:2837% → 38%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-10
39.8%
Moss, Zack rush for 3 yards to the UTAH48 (Rhodes, J.), PENALTY UTAH holding (Fakailoatonga,S) 10 yards to the UTAH35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+17
37.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 17 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
40.4%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4766% → 94%
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
33.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 3 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+13
32.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 13 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
31.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Utah 44 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, personal foul (Donavan Thompson) to the Utah 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+6
31.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 6 yds to the Utah 2Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+1
26.4%
UTAH Penalty, personal foul (Corrion Ballard) to the Utah 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 4:39
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
12.9%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 52 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 3:44
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-11
5.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Cody Barton for a loss of 11 yards to the ArzSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16INT3 plays · 17 yds · 0:008% → 8%
ASUDrive 17INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3796% → 96%
UTAHDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
6.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Troy McCormick Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 29Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 11
OWN 29
-2
6.4%
Tyler Huntley sacked by DJ Calhoun for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 27Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
6.3%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 52 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+17
3.8%
N'Keal Harry run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, personal foul (Philip Afia) to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+19
3.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Newsome for 19 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
3.5%
Richard,Demario rush for 1 yard to the UTAH42 (Heninger, Nick;Barton, Cody), PENALTY ASU holding (Bailey, Quinn) 10 yards to the ASU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 20
OWN 47
0
3.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Ryan Newsome, broken up by Philip AfiaSimilar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 20
OWN 47
+7
3.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 7 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
3.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Utah 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20INT TD4 plays · 3 yds · 0:533% → 0%
Q4 8:24
3RD & 3
OWN 18
-4
3.0%
Huntley, Tyler pass complete to Carrington, D. for 6 yards to the UTAH24 (Wilson, Jay Jay), PENALTY UTAH illegal motion (Thompson, Bryan) 4 yards to the UTAH14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+20
0.3%
Tyler Huntley pass intercepted for a TD Jay Jay Wilson return for 20 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21TD14 plays · 81 yds · 4:430% → 3%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
0.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jameson Field for 2 yds to the Utah 21Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+10
0.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jameson Field for 10 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
0.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 7 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
0.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 4 yds to the Utah 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
0.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 11 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
0.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 8 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+17
0.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 17 yds to the ArzSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5799% → 100%
Q4 0:44
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+1
0.4%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 34 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 1 yd to the Utah 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:40
Demario Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-20.6
TD · Q3 4:45
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-20.5
FG · Q1 2:33
Brandon Ruiz 30 yd FG GOOD
-4.1