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UTAH

Utah 27 at USC 28

USC
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FUMBLETDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:07 · Reid Budrovich punt for 47 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for no gain to the Utah 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior+11.2Home team on offense−12.2Score differential−2.6Garbage-time factor−4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:49: Troy Williams pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 33 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +10.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:56: Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 17 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +19.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:34: Sam Darnold pass complete to Josh Falo for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +26.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:54: Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +25.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:42: Troy Williams 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — UTAH win probability +22.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 6UTAH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:50UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19USC 4th & 5 at UTAH 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:10UTAH 4th & 11 at USC 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:48USC 4th & 10 at USC 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:16USC 4th & 5 at UTAH 49, down 14
    Close callPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:09UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:21USC 4th & 7 at UTAH 33, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.3%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    47.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:45UTAH 4th & 9 at USC 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    61.0%−1.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:25USC 4th & 9 at UTAH 27, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.7%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−6.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:01UTAH 4th & 3 at USC 47, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:07USC 4th & 9 at USC 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−3.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:37UTAH 4th & 10 at UTAH 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−3.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:36UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.7%−8.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:31UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−5.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:45UTAH 4th & 1 at USC 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−5.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−6.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTAH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 4:47USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:10UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:49UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:56USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:34USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:54USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−1.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:42UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.5 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.3%−2.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:5383% → 83%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.4%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
83.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 17 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
83.2%
Sam Darnold run for 7 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+21
83.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 21 yds to the Utah 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
83.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
83.1%
Sam Darnold run for no gain to the Utah 34 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by Utah Bradlee AnaeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5817% → 17%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
82.8%
Zack Moss run for no gain to the Utah 34Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
82.6%
Troy Williams pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 5 yds to the Utah 39Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
82.5%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
82.6%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:2183% → 82%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
82.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Josh Falo for 19 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
82.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 8 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+2
82.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
82.5%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
82.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Utah 44Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
82.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Daniel ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
81.9%
Reid Budrovich punt for 39 yds, downed at the Utah 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4INT
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:5418% → 20%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
81.8%
Zack Moss run for 4 yds to the Utah 9Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+8
81.6%
Zack Moss run for 8 yds to the Utah 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+50
81.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 50 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
80.6%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
80.5%
Williams, Troy pass incomplete to Carrington II, Darren, PENALTY USC pass interference 15 yards to the USC18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAH.Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
80.4%
Zack Moss run for 7 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 3
OPP 11
-1
80.1%
Troy Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 12Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+4
80.1%
Troy Williams pass intercepted Cameron Smith return for 4 yds to the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5FUMBLE TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
78.5%
Sam Darnold run for no gain Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by Utah Marquise Blair , return for 18 yds, (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0878% → 81%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
78.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 21 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
78.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+52
80.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 52 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:2520% → 22%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.1%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for no gain to the Utah 25Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.9%
Troy Williams run for 5 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
79.7%
Zack Moss run for 14 yds to the Utah 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
78.8%
Zack Moss run for 2 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
78.3%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+40
78.6%
Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 40 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
77.6%
Zack Moss run for no gain to the USC 14Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
77.2%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 1 yd to the USC 13Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-2
77.4%
Troy Williams sacked by Rasheem Green and Malik Dorton for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 15Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
78.0%
Matt Gay 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1879% → 78%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
78.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Sam DarnoldSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
78.7%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
78.2%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
77.9%
Reid Budrovich punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tyler Huntley at the Utah 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:2423% → 29%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+31
77.0%
Zack Moss run for 31 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
76.2%
Zack Moss run for 15 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
75.9%
Zack Moss run for 4 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
71.0%
Demari Simpkins pass complete to Troy Williams for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:0673% → 73%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
72.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
50
+1
73.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the Utah 49Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
73.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the Utah 42Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+10
73.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 10 yds to the Utah 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
73.5%
Velus Jones Jr. run for 12 yds to the Utah 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
73.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Utah 18Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-3
72.5%
Sam Darnold run for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 21 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by Utah Nick HeningerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:4331% → 48%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
69.4%
Troy Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 18Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+8
69.2%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 8 yds to the Utah 26Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+5
68.6%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
67.8%
UTAH Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Utah 26Similar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 15
OWN 26
0
67.2%
Zack Moss run for no gain to the Utah 26Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+15
66.9%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
64.7%
Troy Williams run for 6 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+9
64.0%
Zack Moss run for 9 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
63.3%
Troy Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
62.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+5
62.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 5 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
52.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 33 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:2854% → 52%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
54.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
54.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
54.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
54.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the USC 47Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
53.7%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+4
52.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 4 yds to the Utah 49Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
52.1%
Reid Budrovich punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:0350% → 53%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
50.1%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+19
48.5%
Zack Moss run for 19 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
46.1%
Troy Williams pass complete to Troy McCormick Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 36Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+4
46.4%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 4 yds to the Utah 40Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
45.4%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
46.7%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 47 yds · 0:4048% → 46%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
47.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 12 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+32
47.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 32 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
49.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
49.5%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+3
48.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 3 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
45.6%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
42.5%
Troy Williams sacked by Josh Fatu for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:1055% → 61%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+29
45.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 29 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
42.4%
Zack Moss run for 7 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+3
41.2%
Zack Moss run for 3 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
40.5%
Troy Williams sacked by Christian Rector for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 17
OPP 49
+16
39.8%
Troy Williams pass complete to Zack Moss for 16 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 1
OPP 33
-3
38.8%
Demari Simpkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 36Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 4
OPP 36
-5
40.7%
UTAH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 41Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
39.4%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 39 yds, downed at the USC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
18 plays · 98 yds · 5:2940% → 53%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
40.0%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+12
39.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 12 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
39.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 3
OWN 21
-2
38.9%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 19Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+8
37.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
36.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
36.5%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+23
35.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 23 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
37.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 17 yds to the Utah 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
38.1%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
35.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for no gain to the Utah 28Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+1
33.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the Utah 27Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+10
32.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 10 yds to the Utah 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
34.2%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
33.8%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
52.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 17 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4957% → 60%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
43.1%
Zack Moss run for 11 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
40.6%
Zack Moss run for 2 yds to the Utah 48Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
39.6%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
38.9%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
40.4%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3845% → 42%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
44.5%
Sam Darnold run for 1 yd to the USC 21Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
44.0%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
42.6%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
41.7%
Reid Budrovich punt for 47 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for no gain to the Utah 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1162% → 59%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
38.3%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 5 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-5
37.1%
UTAH Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Utah 32Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
38.2%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Siaosi WilsonSimilar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
40.1%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
41.0%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 56 yds, downed at the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 2:3742% → 70%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+16
41.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 16 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
42.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 15 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
41.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
42.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 4 yds to the Utah 48Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+7
43.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 7 yds to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
43.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler PetiteSimilar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
42.9%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+16
40.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 16 yds to the Utah 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
44.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 21 yds to the Utah 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
43.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Utah 1Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Josh Falo for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 4:4241% → 42%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
59.0%
Zack Moss run for 3 yds to the Utah 24Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-5
58.5%
UTAH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Utah 19Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+6
59.2%
Troy Williams run for 6 yds to the Utah 25Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+5
58.9%
Troy Williams pass complete to Zack Moss for 5 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+1
58.5%
Troy Williams run for 1 yd to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
55.7%
Zack Moss run for 2 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-6
55.4%
Troy Williams sacked by Christian Rector for a loss of 6 yards to the Utah 27Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+6
58.5%
Troy Williams run for 6 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
58.4%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 60 yds, downed at the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 3:3459% → 91%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
59.2%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
58.7%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+14
56.4%
Sam Darnold run for 14 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
59.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 9 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+15
62.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 15 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
64.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the Utah 48Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+26
65.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 26 yds to the Utah 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
66.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 9 yds to the Utah 13Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+2
66.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the Utah 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
66.3%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
91.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 24TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0714% → 45%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.1%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
86.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 11 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
84.1%
Troy Williams pass complete to Zack Moss for 5 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
83.8%
Troy Williams pass complete to Demari Simpkins for no gain to the Utah 41Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+11
84.6%
Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 11 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
82.8%
Troy Williams run for no gain to the USC 48 Troy Williams fumbled, recovered by Utah Troy Williams Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
83.1%
UTAH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Utah 47Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+14
86.1%
Troy Williams pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 14 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
81.7%
Zack Moss run for no gain to the USC 39Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+37
84.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Siale Fakailoatonga for 37 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.1%
Troy Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 1Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.6%
Troy Williams 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:3980% → 94%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
79.5%
Sam Darnold run for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 17
OWN 40
-2
77.2%
Sam Darnold run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 38
-1
94.4%
Sam Darnold run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:34
Sam Darnold pass complete to Josh Falo for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+26
TD · Q4 4:54
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+25.1
TD · Q4 0:42
Troy Williams 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-22.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com