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ORST

Oregon State 10 at USC 38

USC
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:49 · Nick Porebski punt for 43 yds , Ajene Harris returns for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 29 Ajene Harris fumbled, forced by Omar Hicks-Onu, recovered by OrgSt Brandon Arnold
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior+45.9Home team on offense+2.1Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:01: Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:57: Sam Darnold pass complete to Josh Falo for 30 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:11: Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:45: Chase McGrath 29 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:19: Matt Fink run for 51 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:49ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:49ORST 4th & 9 at USC 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:49ORST 4th & 5 at USC 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:49USC 4th & 9 at USC 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:17ORST 4th & 15 at USC 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:27ORST 4th & 2 at USC 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−0.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:05ORST 4th & 18 at ORST 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 48, down 18
    Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:44USC 4th & 2 at ORST 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:07USC 4th & 21 at USC 11, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:45USC 4th & 8 at ORST 11, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:54ORST 4th & 8 at USC 32, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:43USC 4th & 3 at ORST 4, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:29USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:49USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:01USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:57USC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:11ORST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:19USC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:3198% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
98.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+4
98.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
98.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+4
98.0%
Velus Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+8
98.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
98.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+9
98.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 9 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
97.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 37 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2INT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
97.6%
[NHSG], Tyner, Thomas rush for 7 yards to the OSU32 (Harris, Ajene;Tell, Marvell), PENALTY OSU holding (Togiai, Noah) 10 yards to the OSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+13
97.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
97.6%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
97.6%
Darell Garretson pass intercepted Jack Jones return for 2 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 1:1898% → 98%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+23
97.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 23 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
97.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 5 yds to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
97.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+9
97.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 9 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.6%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
97.6%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+43
97.6%
Nick Porebski punt for 43 yds , Ajene Harris returns for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 29 Ajene Harris fumbled, forced by Omar Hicks-Onu, recovered by OrgSt Brandon ArnoldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:013% → 3%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.4%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
97.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 1 yd to the USC 28Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
97.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Noah Togiai, broken up by Marvell Tell IIISimilar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+46
97.4%
Jordan Choukair 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jack JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
97.5%
Sam Darnold run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 23 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Bright Ugwoegbu , return for no gain to the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:563% → 3%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
97.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+1
97.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the USC 18Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
97.3%
Darell Garretson run for no gain to the USC 18Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+37
97.2%
Jordan Choukair 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-2
97.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 21Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
97.2%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
97.2%
Reid Budrovich punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:123% → 4%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
96.9%
Seth Collins run for 13 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
96.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 11 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
96.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for 1 yd to the USC 28Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+21
96.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 21 yds to the USC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
96.8%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.5%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
96.6%
Darell Garretson sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 15Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
96.3%
Jordan Choukair 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 4:1196% → 98%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.3%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+14
96.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 14 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
96.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
96.4%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+11
96.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 11 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
96.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
96.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 4 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
96.5%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+15
96.4%
Budrovich, Reid punt 31 yards to the OSU12, downed, PENALTY OSU roughing the kicker (Rashed, H.) 15 yards to the OSU28, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-11
96.6%
[NHSG], Jones, Ronald rush for 4 yards to the OSU24 (Ugwoegbu, B.;Willis, J.), PENALTY USC holding (Lobendahn, Toa) 11 yards to the OSU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 21
OPP 39
+16
96.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 16 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
96.6%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+7
96.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
97.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11DOWNS
18 plays · 68 yds · 6:293% → 4%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
97.3%
Darell Garretson run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+3
97.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.2%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
97.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+16
97.2%
Seth Collins run for 1 yd to the USC 37 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, personal foul (Ajene Harris) to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
97.1%
[NHSG], Garretson, D. pass incomplete to Togiai, Noah (Hawkins, Chris), PENALTY USC offside (Nwosu, Uchenna) 5 yards to the USC43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+2
97.0%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
97.0%
Seth Collins run for 6 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
96.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
96.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+4
96.6%
Trevorris Johnson run for 4 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
96.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Jack JonesSimilar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-3
96.5%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 25Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+11
96.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 11 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q2 3:27
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+1
96.0%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12INT
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
97.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+19
97.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 19 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
97.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 18 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
97.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 1 yd to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+7
97.4%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Manase Hungalu return for 7 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:262% → 2%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.7%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Isaiah Hodgins, broken up by Iman MarshallSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-12
97.8%
Darell Garretson sacked by Cameron Smith and Christian Rector for a loss of 12 yards to the OrgSt 35 OREGON ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Darell Garretson) to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 22
OWN 35
+4
98.1%
Trevorris Johnson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 18
OWN 39
0
98.1%
Nick Porebski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
97.6%
Sam Darnold run for 7 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+8
97.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Ronald Jones IISimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
97.5%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
97.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
96.7%
Trevorris Johnson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+8
96.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 8 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
96.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for no gain to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
96.6%
Nick Porebski punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 3:4797% → 99%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
97.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 10 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
97.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 13 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr., broken up by Shawn WilsonSimilar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+22
97.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 22 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
97.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 4 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
97.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+1
97.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+8
97.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 8 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Josh Falo for 30 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17FUMBLE
13 plays · 69 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.0%
Trevorris Johnson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 4 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
99.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 33 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
98.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
98.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+6
98.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 6 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.9%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
98.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+7
98.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 7 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
98.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 0
OPP 4
-2
98.8%
Darell Garretson run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 6 Darell Garretson fumbled, recovered by USC Christian RectorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
99.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 2 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+14
99.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 14 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-21
99.6%
Sam Darnold sacked by Jonathan Willis for a loss of 21 yards to the USC 1 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by USC Toa Lobendahn , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 31
OWN 1
0
99.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 31
OWN 1
+10
99.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 10 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 21
OWN 11
+33
99.5%
Reid Budrovich punt for 46 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 33 yds to the USC 44 OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the USC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:041% → 3%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
99.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 38 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 0
OPP 1
-14
99.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Seth Collins) to the USC 15Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
99.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 9 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+6
97.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:2198% → 99%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
98.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
98.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
98.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
98.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 4
50
0
98.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler PetiteSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 4
50
+37
98.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 37 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
98.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
98.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+1
98.7%
Sam Darnold run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
99.3%
Chase McGrath 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 2:461% → 0%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.3%
Seth Collins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
99.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 5 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+38
99.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for 38 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
99.2%
Thomas Tyner run for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-5
99.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Fred Lauina) to the USC 32Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
99.2%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete, broken up by Malik DortonSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
99.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Noah Togiai, broken up by Malik DortonSimilar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 8
OPP 32
0
99.7%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+13
99.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 13 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
100.0%
Matt Fink run for 51 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
100.0%
USC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chris Hawkins) to the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 5:28100% → 100%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
100.0%
James Toland IV run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
100.0%
James Toland IV run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
100.0%
James Toland IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+1
100.0%
Matt Fink run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 44 Matt Fink fumbled, recovered by USC Matt FinkSimilar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+12
100.0%
Matt Fink pass complete to Randal Grimes for 12 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
100.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 21 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
100.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
100.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+5
100.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 3
OPP 4
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
100.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+10
100.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:11
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q3 8:57
Sam Darnold pass complete to Josh Falo for 30 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q2 10:01
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com