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ARIZ

Arizona 45 at Colorado 42

COLO
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:58 · Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+13.3Home team on offense−2.5Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:51: Zach Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +17.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:21: Steven Montez pass complete to Chris Bounds for 2 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +14.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:06: Khalil Tate run for 75 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +21.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:02: Steven Montez pass complete to Chris Bounds for 39 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +19.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:04: Phillip Lindsay run for 11 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +28.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00ARIZ 4th & 1 at COLO 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:35COLO 4th & 17 at COLO 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00COLO 4th & 21 at COLO 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:12ARIZ 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:58COLO 4th & 2 at ARIZ 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−1.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:58COLO 4th & 1 at ARIZ 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−1.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−7.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00COLO 4th & 1 at ARIZ 33, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%−4.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00COLO 4th & 18 at COLO 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−4.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:21COLO 4th & 2 at ARIZ 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−11.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:06ARIZ 4th & 4 at COLO 7, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−12.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:24COLO 4th & 4 at ARIZ 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:59ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:33COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:13ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:24COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:21ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:21ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:13COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:51ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:21COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:06ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:02COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:04COLO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1FUMBLE
12 plays · 55 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.0%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
69.0%
Brandon Dawkins run for 8 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
69.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+12
69.0%
Nick Wilson run for 12 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
69.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Trevor WoodSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
69.0%
Brandon Dawkins run for 8 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
69.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+1
69.0%
Brandon Dawkins run for 1 yd to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
69.0%
Brandon Dawkins run for no gain to the Colo 41 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
69.0%
Shun Brown run for 12 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-6
69.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for a loss of 6 yards Shun Brown fumbled, forced by Afolabi Laguda, recovered by Colo Ryan MoellerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-16
68.6%
Steven Montez sacked by Tony Fields II for a loss of 16 yards to the Colo 5Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 26
OWN 5
+5
68.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 5 yds to the Colo 10Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+9
68.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 9 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 12
OWN 19
-5
68.3%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 14Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 17
OWN 14
+6
68.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 50 yds , Shun Brown returns for 6 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
65.5%
Khalil Tate run for 58 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:2666% → 69%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
66.0%
Lindsay, Philli rush for 12 yards to the COLO37 (Young Jr., S.), PENALTY COLO holding (Bounds, Chris) 10 yards to the COLO15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
66.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Colo 15Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+16
66.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 16 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+39
66.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 39 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
66.9%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Tim Lynott) to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+5
66.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
66.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
66.9%
Steven Montez run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+15
66.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 15 yds to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
66.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
66.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+4
66.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
68.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2033% → 39%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
67.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 28 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
66.2%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+9
66.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 9 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
66.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
65.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+28
60.9%
Khalil Tate run for 28 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:0662% → 60%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
62.0%
Steven Montez run for 11 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
62.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
62.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+8
62.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 8 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
62.9%
Steven Montez sacked by Justin Belknap for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
61.3%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-9
60.6%
Steven Montez sacked by Colin Schooler for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 32
0
60.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
59.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 5 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+9
59.2%
Nick Wilson run for 9 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
58.8%
Khalil Tate run for no gain to the Ariz 46Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
58.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 6
50
0
58.9%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tyrell JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 6
50
0
59.7%
Jake Glatting punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Oliver at the Colo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
20 plays · 85 yds · 9:3459% → 67%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
59.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+4
59.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+5
58.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
59.3%
Montez, Steven rush for 1 yard to the COLO29 (Belknap, J.), PENALTY COLO holding (Huckins, Jonath) 10 yards to the COLO18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 20
OWN 18
-2
59.0%
Steven Montez sacked by Brandon Rutt for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 16Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 22
OWN 16
+35
58.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 35 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
61.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-1
61.1%
Beau Bisharat run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+9
60.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 9 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
61.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
61.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-1
61.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+10
60.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 10 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
61.9%
Beau Bisharat run for 5 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
61.9%
Beau Bisharat run for 4 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
61.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Ariz 11Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+3
60.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
61.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
61.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:5639% → 56%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+52
60.6%
Khalil Tate run for 37 yds to the COLORADO 31 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, personal foul (Dante Wigley) to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
57.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Colo 13Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
44.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 13 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 1:2151% → 51%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 8 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
52.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 11 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
51.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyreSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
50.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 14 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
52.8%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
52.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 7 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 1
OPP 33
0
52.5%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+50
50.7%
James Stefanou 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
49.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 14 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
50.3%
Lindsay, Philli rush for 6 yards to the COLO45 (Burns, L.), PENALTY COLO holding (Kough, Gerrad) 10 yards to the COLO29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+2
49.0%
Michael Adkins II run for 2 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 31
0
48.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 31
0
47.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete, broken up by Kylan WilbornSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 31
0
47.2%
Alex Kinney punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:1654% → 70%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
45.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
44.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
44.0%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Defensive holding (Javier Edwards) to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
29.8%
Khalil Tate run for 47 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:0833% → 48%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.2%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
32.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 9 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
34.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
34.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
33.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 14 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
35.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 10 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
35.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
36.7%
Beau Bisharat run for 5 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+5
36.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
36.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
36.2%
Beau Bisharat run for 6 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+5
35.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Ariz 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
36.7%
Lindsay, Philli rush for 2 yards to the ARIZ11 (Schooler, C.;Cruikshank, D.), PENALTY COLO IF 5 yards to the ARIZ18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+2
36.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+9
36.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 9 yds to the Ariz 7Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
47.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 7 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2260% → 85%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.3%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
39.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 6 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
39.6%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
39.0%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
38.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 4 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+11
34.5%
Khalil Tate run for 11 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
33.4%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+28
33.1%
Khalil Tate run for 28 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
32.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 11 yds to the Colo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
32.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Colo 2Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
32.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Colo 1Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.9%
Zach Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3019% → 34%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
18.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 10 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+45
19.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 45 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
21.9%
Beau Bisharat run for 7 yds to the Ariz 12Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+2
21.9%
Beau Bisharat run for 2 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+1
20.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
20.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce Bobo, broken up by Jace WhittakerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
20.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
19.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q4 13:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Chris Bounds for 2 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
11.9%
Khalil Tate run for 75 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0415% → 36%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, delay of game (Parker Zellers) to the Colo 30Similar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+2
16.1%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
16.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 13 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
17.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
16.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+14
16.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 14 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
36.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Chris Bounds for 39 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18FG
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:5674% → 85%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.4%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+60
26.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 60 yds to the Colo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
21.9%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Colo 9Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+2
21.9%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
22.7%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Colo 7Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
14.9%
Josh Pollack 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0215% → 45%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
15.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 36 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
18.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Shay Fields, broken up by Jace WhittakerSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
18.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+4
17.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+11
13.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 11 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
16.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+4
16.2%
Beau Bisharat run for 4 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
16.2%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Shay Fields, broken up by Jace WhittakerSimilar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
45.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 11 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20END OF GAME
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:0772% → 93%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
27.6%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
26.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
27.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 8 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
24.4%
Taylor, JJ rush for loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ37 (Gamboa, Rick), PENALTY COLO offside defense (Mulumba, Chris) 5 yards to the ARIZ44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+5
24.0%
COLORADO Penalty, offside defense (Jase Franke) to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
23.6%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 9
50
+2
15.5%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+31
16.7%
Khalil Tate run for 31 yds to the Colo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
6.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 19Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-1
6.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:04
Phillip Lindsay run for 11 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)
+28.9
TD · Q4 13:06
Khalil Tate run for 75 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
-21.4
TD · Q4 11:02
Steven Montez pass complete to Chris Bounds for 39 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)
+19.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com