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CAL

California 24 at Oregon 45

ORE
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.9ORE 85.9%Matt Anderson 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 24 · Q4 10:44
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:44 · Matt Anderson 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior+8.8Home team on offense+10.5Score differential+2.5Garbage-time factor+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:58: Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 18 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +8.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:08: Kani Benoit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +6.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:45: Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 75 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +7.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:51: Kani Benoit run for 68 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +7.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:54: Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 28 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +5.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:50ORE 4th & 7 at CAL 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:50CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:42CAL 4th & 16 at CAL 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00CAL 4th & 19 at ORE 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:49ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 30, up 17
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:17CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:57ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:50CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 45, down 17
    Close callPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:28ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 14, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:45ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:54CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:17ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.2%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:44CAL 4th & 15 at ORE 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−4.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:08ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:54CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:35CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 6CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:42ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:14ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:58CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:08ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:45CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:51ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:01ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:54CAL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:35ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:1090% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.6%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
89.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 8 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
89.6%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+11
89.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Ryan Bay for 11 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
89.6%
Royce Freeman run for 20 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
89.6%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
89.6%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-2
89.6%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
88.9%
Aidan Schneider 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
88.8%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
88.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 3 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
88.8%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
88.9%
Dylan Klumph punt for 45 yds, downed at the Oregn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:4188% → 89%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
88.4%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+15
88.4%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Mitchell, D., PENALTY CAL pass interference 15 yards to the ORE42, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
88.6%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
88.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Kani Benoit for 8 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+37
89.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 37 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
88.7%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
88.6%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+14
88.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 14 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
88.6%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 39Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-4
88.7%
Ross Bowers sacked by Jordon Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 16
OWN 35
0
88.8%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 16
OWN 35
+23
88.9%
Dylan Klumph punt for 45 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 23 yds to the Oregn 47 Dillon Mitchell fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by Oregn Mattrell McGrawSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:1989% → 91%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
88.9%
Kani Benoit run for 7 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+6
88.9%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
88.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Kani Benoit for 9 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
89.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Taj Griffin for no gain to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
88.8%
Kani Benoit run for 3 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
89.0%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+13
89.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 13 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
89.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (7 Yards) to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.2%
Justin Herbert run for 7 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
19 plays · 41 yds · 2:1410% → 9%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
90.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
90.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan Veasy, broken up by Jalen JelksSimilar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+15
90.7%
Bowers, Ross pass incomplete to Noa, Kanawai (Robinson, Tyree), PENALTY ORE personal foul 15 yards to the CAL32, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
90.4%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
90.1%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 38Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+6
90.4%
Ross Bowers run for 6 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
90.9%
Vic Enwere run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+1
91.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 1 yd to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+13
91.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 13 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
90.5%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
90.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 1 yd to the Oregn 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+4
90.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Zion Echols for 4 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+9
90.7%
Bowers, Ross pass incomplete to Noa, Kanawai (McGraw, M.), PENALTY ORE pass interference 9 yards to the ORE30, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
90.4%
Ross Bowers sacked by Troy Dye for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+6
90.6%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-8
90.5%
Ross Bowers sacked by Justin Hollins and Ugochukwu Amadi for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 34
-5
91.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
91.2%
Dylan Klumph punt for 16 yds, downed at the Oregn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
92.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+3
92.3%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 3 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+3
92.2%
Taylor Alie run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
91.9%
Adam Stack punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
91.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 20 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
90.6%
Derrick Clark run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 9
50
-5
90.7%
Ross Bowers sacked by Henry Mondeaux for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+1
91.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 1 yd to the Cal 46Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
91.5%
Dylan Klumph punt for 36 yds, downed at the Oregn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
92.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 6 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+3
92.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
92.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
92.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
92.4%
Taylor Alie pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-2
92.2%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+8
91.8%
Adam Stack punt for 38 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 8 yds to the Cal 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
91.2%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
91.2%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
91.2%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
91.5%
Dylan Klumph punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1893% → 94%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
92.5%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Oregn 8Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+3
92.4%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Alex Ofodile for 3 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+3
93.2%
Kani Benoit run for 3 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
93.5%
Adam Stack punt for 43 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for no gain to the Cal 42 Vic Wharton III fumbled, recovered by Oregn Ugochukwu AmadiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+53
94.3%
Taylor Alie pass intercepted Jordan Kunaszyk return for 53 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
85.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 18 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0088% → 89%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
88.4%
Kani Benoit run for 7 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 3
OWN 25
-1
88.6%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.8%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
86.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Brandon SingletonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
87.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+1
87.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 46 yds , Jaylon Redd returns for 1 yd to the Oregn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 4:0088% → 95%
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
87.6%
Tony Brooks-James run for 9 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
88.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
88.2%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Taj Griffin for 7 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
88.3%
Taylor Alie pass incomplete to Ryan BaySimilar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+7
87.7%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 7 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
88.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 7 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+8
88.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 8 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
88.5%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 9 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+7
88.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 7 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
88.5%
Taj Griffin run for 2 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+13
88.5%
Kani Benoit run for 13 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.6%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Cal 1Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.8%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
87.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 75 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
87.7%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
88.0%
Kani Benoit run for 5 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
87.9%
Kani Benoit run for 3 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+6
88.2%
Taylor Alie run for 6 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
88.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
88.6%
Tony Brooks-James run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 5
50
-10
88.7%
Alie, Taylor rush for 2 yards to the CAL48 (Becker, Rusty;Weaver, Evan), PENALTY ORE holding 10 yards to the ORE40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+4
88.0%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Cam McCormick for 4 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
87.6%
Taylor Alie pass incomplete to Jaylon Redd, broken up by Jaylinn HawkinsSimilar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
86.7%
Adam Stack punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
87.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 8 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+3
86.9%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
87.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+15
87.4%
Bowers, Ross pass incomplete to Veasy, Jordan, PENALTY ORE roughing passer 15 yards to the CAL42, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
86.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+5
87.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 5 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
87.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
88.1%
Dylan Klumph punt for 53 yds, downed at the Oregn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
87.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+1
87.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Oregn 10Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+9
87.3%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Ryan Bay for 9 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
88.2%
Taylor Alie pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 1 yd to the Oregn 20 OREGON Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 10Similar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+7
88.1%
Jaylon Redd run for 7 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+9
87.9%
Kani Benoit run for 9 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+1
87.7%
Jaylon Redd run for 1 yd to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
87.2%
Adam Stack punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 4:5212% → 14%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
88.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 7 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
87.3%
Zion Echols run for 2 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
87.5%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+3
88.4%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
87.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 6 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+8
86.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 8 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
86.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan Veasy, broken up by Jalen JelksSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
86.6%
Zion Echols run for 2 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+24
87.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 24 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
85.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
85.5%
Ross Bowers sacked by Henry Mondeaux for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 19
0
87.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan Veasy, broken up by Arrion SpringsSimilar
Q4 10:44
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+36
85.9%
Matt Anderson 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5389% → 96%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.6%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 20Similar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
88.4%
Taj Griffin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.4%
Kani Benoit run for 7 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+68
96.0%
Kani Benoit run for 68 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · -16 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
93.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Brandon SingletonSimilar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-9
93.8%
Ross Bowers sacked by Jalen Jelks and Jonah Moi for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 10Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 19
OWN 10
-7
94.0%
Ross Bowers sacked by Justin Hollins for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 3 Ross Bowers fumbled, recovered by Oregn Henry Mondeaux , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:5096% → 99%
Q4 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
96.3%
OREGON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
96.3%
Taylor Alie run for 8 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+11
96.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 11 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:071% → 6%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 8 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+5
99.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 5 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
99.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 12 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.0%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.0%
Ross Bowers run for 2 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+3
99.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 3 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+15
99.1%
Bowers, Ross pass incomplete to Noa, Kanawai, PENALTY ORE pass interference 15 yards to the ORE28, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
98.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
93.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 28 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · -2 yds · 0:4697% → 98%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
97.2%
Felix, Darrian rush for 3 yards to the CAL48 (Allensworth, Darius;Udeogu, Chinedu), PENALTY ORE holding 10 yards to the ORE39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+3
97.0%
Darrian Felix run for 3 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+4
97.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Taj Griffin for 4 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+1
97.7%
Darrian Felix run for 1 yd to the Oregn 47Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
97.6%
Adam Stack punt for 30 yds, downed at the Cal 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 28TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:5798% → 100%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
98.4%
Darrian Felix run for 9 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
98.4%
Darrian Felix run for 3 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.6%
Darrian Felix run for 11 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Derrick Clark run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.8%
Derrick Clark run for 2 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Chase Forrest pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Deommodore LenoirSimilar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Chase Forrest pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 11
OPP 32
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 12
OPP 33
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:58
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 18 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q4 9:51
Kani Benoit run for 68 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q3 9:45
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 75 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com