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ASU

Arizona State 24 at Stanford 34

STAN
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:19 · Jake Bailey punt for 39 yds , Ryan Newsome returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+19.1Home team on offense+7.1Garbage-time factor+1.8Score differential+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:25: Demario Richard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +6.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 4:11: K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 12 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +4.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:33: N'Keal Harry pass complete to Ceejhay French-Love for 14 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +9.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 51%).
  4. TD · Q3 6:46: Bryce Love run for 59 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +8.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:02: Demario Richard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +12.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:20ASU 4th & 19 at STAN 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:45ASU 4th & 14 at STAN 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:19STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:03ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 35, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:19STAN 4th & 3 at ASU 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    91.0%−1.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 14, down 14
    Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:17STAN 4th & 3 at ASU 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:26STAN 4th & 3 at ASU 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    88.6%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:18ASU 4th & 1 at STAN 41, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%−0.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:27STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:22STAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:25ASU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:11STAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:33ASU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:46STAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:02ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3386% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 6 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
86.3%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
86.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 8 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
86.2%
Bryce Love run for 61 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
86.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+7
86.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
86.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+34
86.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 34 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
86.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
86.0%
N'Keal Harry run for 3 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-12
86.0%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Mike Tyler for a loss of 12 yards to the Stanf 39Similar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
86.1%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 78 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
85.8%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 20Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+21
85.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 6 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, personal foul (Demonte King) to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
86.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Donald Stewart for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 1
50
+3
86.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 3 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
86.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 9 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+31
86.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 31 yds Dalton Schultz fumbled, forced by J'Marcus Rhodes, recovered by ArzSt J'Marcus RhodesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 84 yds · 5:4815% → 17%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
85.4%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+49
85.5%
Kyle Williams run for 49 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
84.9%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+12
84.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 12 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
84.7%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+3
84.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+8
84.9%
N'Keal Harry run for 8 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
84.6%
Wilkins, Manny pass complete to Harry, N'Keal for 6 yards to the STAN14 (Buncom,F), PENALTY STAN offside 5 yards to the STAN15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 5
OPP 15
+5
84.6%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the Stanf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
84.6%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 14Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-8
84.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Eric Cotton for a loss of 8 yards to the Stanf 22Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
+8
85.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 8 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
82.9%
Brandon Ruiz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4583% → 82%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.7%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 26Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
82.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
82.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
81.8%
Jake Bailey punt for 58 yds, downed at the ArzSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6INT
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
82.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
82.1%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted Justin Reid return for no gain to the ArzSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 1:2183% → 86%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
83.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+43
86.4%
Bryce Love run for 43 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5714% → 22%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.6%
Demario Richard run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
85.1%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
85.3%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
85.0%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+17
85.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 17 yds to the STANFORD 41 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
84.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
84.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+7
84.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
84.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for no gain to the Stanf 30Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
84.4%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+8
84.7%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
84.3%
Demario Richard run for 14 yds to the Stanf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
84.3%
Manny Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 3Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.9%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1481% → 87%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
80.9%
Bryce Love run for 39 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
82.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
82.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 8 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+15
81.7%
Bryce Love run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
82.2%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
86.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 12 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3814% → 25%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
86.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 18 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
85.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-7
85.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 17
OWN 36
+22
86.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 7 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Ben Edwards) to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
84.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 21 yds to the Stanf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
84.0%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the Stanf 18Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
84.0%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
74.9%
N'Keal Harry pass complete to Ceejhay French-Love for 14 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 1:3380% → 84%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
79.8%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+22
79.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 22 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
81.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by JoJo WickerSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
81.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+40
80.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 40 yds to the ArzSt 4 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
83.8%
Jet Toner 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
82.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
82.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 4 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
82.9%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.2%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
83.0%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 24Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
82.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 9 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-2
82.2%
Jake Bailey punt for 39 yds , Ryan Newsome returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
82.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
81.3%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
81.1%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+7
82.3%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 50 yds , Trenton Irwin returns for 7 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:1784% → 92%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
83.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 4 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
83.9%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+5
83.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Donald Stewart for 5 yds to the Stanf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
84.1%
Bryce Love run for 8 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+59
92.4%
Bryce Love run for 59 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.5%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Ballage, Kalen, PENALTY STAN offside (Phillips,H) 5 yards to the ASU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
89.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
89.7%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
89.5%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted Justin Reid return for no gain to the Stanf 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · -4 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
92.5%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+4
92.2%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+17
91.8%
Jake Bailey run for 17 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
92.7%
Love,B rush for 18 yards to the ASU10 (King, Demonte), PENALTY STAN holding (Fanaika,B) 10 yards to the ASU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 20
OPP 38
0
92.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Trenton Irwin, broken up by Chase LucasSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 20
OPP 38
-18
92.5%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 41 STANFORD Penalty, personal foul (Kaden Smith) to the Stanf 44Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 38
OWN 44
0
92.0%
Ryan Burns run for no gain to the Stanf 44Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 38
OWN 44
0
91.5%
Jake Bailey punt for 51 yds , Ryan Newsome returns for no gain to the ArzSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:158% → 7%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
92.3%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+3
92.4%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+2
92.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 14
+2
93.0%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 42 yds , Trenton Irwin returns for 2 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3395% → 95%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
95.0%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
95.0%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
94.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Connor WedingtonSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
94.6%
Jake Bailey punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ryan Newsome at the ArzSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 5:088% → 23%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
92.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+2
92.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 2 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+43
92.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 43 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
90.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Dylan Jackson and Harrison Phillips for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+10
91.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Jenkins for 10 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+6
90.7%
N'Keal Harry run for 6 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
89.8%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+16
89.8%
Kyle Williams run for 16 yds to the Stanf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
89.8%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the Stanf 10Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
89.8%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Ballage, Kalen, QB hurry by Jackson,D, PENALTY STAN pass interference (Perez,J) 8 yards to the STAN2, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.2%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 5:3688% → 96%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.6%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
87.6%
Bryce Love run for 9 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+31
88.4%
Bryce Love run for 31 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
89.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
89.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
89.2%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
89.8%
Bryce Love run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
89.8%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+2
89.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+3
89.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+7
94.4%
Bryce Love run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
96.1%
Jet Toner 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22MISSED FG
13 plays · 34 yds · 2:013% → 3%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Wilkins, Manny pass complete to Williams, Kyle for loss of 3 yards to the ASU22, out-of-bounds (Holder,A), PENALTY ASU illegal touching (Williams, Kyle) 0 yards to the ASU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.9%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Darby, Frank (Parkinson,C), QB hurry by Tyler,M, PENALTY STAN face mask (Phillips,H) 15 yards to the ASU40, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
96.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
50
-10
95.7%
Wilkins, Manny rush for 5 yards to the STAN45 (Cotton,E), PENALTY ASU holding (Bailey, Quinn) 10 yards to the ASU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+13
96.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 13 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
95.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+6
95.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 6 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+59
96.7%
Brandon Ruiz 59 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:02
Demario Richard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q2 1:33
N'Keal Harry pass complete to Ceejhay French-Love for 14 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-9.4
TD · Q3 6:46
Bryce Love run for 59 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com