Try the model
ORST

Oregon State 27 at Colorado State 58

CSU
2017 · Week 1 · Aug 26, 2017 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:25 · Jordan Choukair 52 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Home team on offense−2.3Pregame prior+6.5Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:19: Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:50: Wyatt Bryan 25 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:39: Jake Luton pass intercepted for a TD Tre Thomas return for 44 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +14.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:52: Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 25 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +11.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:23: Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 20 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:54CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:09ORST 4th & 7 at CSU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:09ORST 4th & 6 at CSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:57CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:15CSU 4th & 5 at ORST 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:25ORST 4th & 4 at CSU 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:49CSU 4th & 2 at ORST 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    64.7%−0.9
    79% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:50CSU 4th & 7 at ORST 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−8.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:42CSU 4th & 6 at ORST 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:36ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:31ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:09CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:10CSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:57ORST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:19CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:39CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:52ORST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:23CSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:29CSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:59CSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.4%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
61.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Ryan Nall for 2 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
61.4%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
61.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 35 yds, downed at the ColSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.4%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
61.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 7 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
61.5%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
61.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:5639% → 40%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
61.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (5 Yards) to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+9
61.3%
Ryan Nall run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
61.3%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
61.3%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+13
61.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 13 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
61.2%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
61.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 7 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
61.2%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
59.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 39 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:1760% → 62%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
60.1%
STEVENS, N. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, O. (Williams, D.), PENALTY OSU pass interference (Williams, D.) 15 yards to the CSU36, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
60.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+12
60.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Cameron Butler for 12 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
60.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 8 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+6
60.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
60.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+12
60.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
60.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 3 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+14
60.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Trey Smith for 14 yds to the OrgSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.6%
DAWKINS, D. rush for 1 yard to the OSU1 (Arnold, Brandon;Smith, Shemar), PENALTY OSU offside 1 yards to the OSU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.1%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
61.0%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
61.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 13 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
60.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+10
60.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 10 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
60.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
60.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
60.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy Hernandez OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
60.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
61.0%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Kyle White return for no gain to the OrgSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7FG
13 plays · 36 yds · 3:3040% → 41%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
60.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+2
60.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 2 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+7
60.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 7 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+11
60.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 11 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
59.9%
Luton, Jake rush for 4 yards to the CSU39 (NUTT, K.), PENALTY CSU offside (MCBRIDE, T.) 5 yards to the CSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+3
59.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for 3 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
59.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+9
59.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tuli Wily-Matagi for 9 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
59.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Anthony HawkinsSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-1
59.7%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 11
OPP 27
0
60.1%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+5
60.3%
Choukair, J. field goal attempt from 45 BLOCKED, recovered by CSU TM at CSU27, clock 02:13 (blocked by HAWKINS, Anthon), Hayes, Kaleb for no gain to the CSU27, PENALTY CSU offside (HAWKINS, Anthon) 5 yards to the CSU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
59.0%
Jordan Choukair 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 5:5359% → 64%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
59.1%
Jr. Marvin Kinsey run for 9 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+5
60.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
59.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-5
60.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+7
59.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 7 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+7
59.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 7 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
60.3%
Rashaad Boddie run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+10
60.4%
Rashaad Boddie run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
60.5%
Rashaad Boddie run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+8
60.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 8 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+6
60.3%
Rashaad Boddie run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
61.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Detrich Clark) to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 29
-4
60.8%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 33
+15
60.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 15 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+18
64.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 18 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
57.3%
Ryan Nall run for 75 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
58.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 17 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
58.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
58.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
57.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
57.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for no gain Trevon Bradford fumbled, forced by Josh Watson, recovered by ColSt Jr. Kevin NuttSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2961% → 62%
Q2 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
60.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
60.6%
Nick Stevens run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
59.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton FackrellSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
61.8%
Wyatt Bryan 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 3:5041% → 43%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
58.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
58.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon Bradford, broken up by Richard KingSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
58.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 8 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
57.4%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
57.1%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 7
50
+3
56.8%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+7
57.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 7 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
56.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 7 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 3
OPP 33
-1
56.0%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
56.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+52
56.7%
Jordan Choukair 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:0661% → 72%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
61.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 26 yds to the COLOST 40 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
63.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+5
64.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
64.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+11
63.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Trey Smith for 11 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
63.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+9
63.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 9 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
72.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 1:1330% → 37%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
69.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 11 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
68.9%
Jake Luton sacked by Tre Thomas and Max McDonald for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+17
71.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 17 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
69.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Xavier HawkinsSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+16
69.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevorris Johnson for 16 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
67.8%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+34
68.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 34 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
67.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
62.7%
Jordan Choukair 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16FG
18 plays · 48 yds · 5:5967% → 75%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
67.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+5
65.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 5 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
66.6%
STEVENS, N. pass complete to CLARK, D. for 35 yards to the OSU20 (Arnold, Brandon), PENALTY CSU ineligible downfield on pass (KNOX, B.) 5 yards to the CSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+18
65.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 18 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
68.0%
Nick Stevens run for no gain to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+16
67.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 16 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
68.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
68.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+5
67.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 5 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q3 14:49
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+3
66.0%
Nick Stevens run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
68.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 7 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+5
68.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
68.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q3 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
68.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
68.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete, broken up by Kalani VakameilaloSimilar
Q3 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
67.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Detrich Clark, broken up by Brandon ArnoldSimilar
Q3 8:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
75.2%
Wyatt Bryan 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17INT TD
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:1128% → 15%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.3%
Ryan Nall run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
70.2%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
71.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Ryan Nall for 5 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
71.0%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-1
71.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+44
85.5%
Jake Luton pass intercepted for a TD Tre Thomas return for 44 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18INT
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:0015% → 17%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
85.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Ryan Nall for 23 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
83.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 3 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+11
83.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 11 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
83.4%
Jake Luton pass intercepted Anthony Hawkins return for 14 yds to the ColSt 14 Anthony Hawkins fumbled, forced by Timmy Hernandez,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:2889% → 94%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
88.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 14Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+9
88.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 9 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+4
88.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 4 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
89.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 12 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
89.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
89.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+21
89.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 21 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
89.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
89.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
93.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
93.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+41
94.2%
Wyatt Bryan 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
94.0%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Justin SweetSimilar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
94.0%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 14:36
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
94.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 14:36
4TH & 8
OPP 0
0
93.6%
Porebski, Nick punt 47 yards to the CSU27, JOHNSON, O. return to the OSU20 (Whetzel, Kee), PENALTY CSU illegal block off-setting, PENALTY OSU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:36
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
94.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 48 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for no gain to the ColSt 23 Olabisi Johnson fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by OrgSt Andre BoddenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:267% → 17%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
93.4%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+1
93.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 1 yd to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+25
82.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 25 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2986% → 96%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
86.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+48
85.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 48 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
87.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
96.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 20 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.0%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
96.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for 8 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+9
95.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 9 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
95.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 10 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
95.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 5 yds Noah Togiai fumbled, forced by Jamal Hicks, recovered by ColSt Richard KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:2897% → 99%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
96.5%
Rashaad Boddie run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
96.5%
Rashaad Boddie run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
96.6%
Rashaad Boddie run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+6
96.6%
Rashaad Boddie run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Cameron Butler for 15 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.3%
Jake Luton pass intercepted Josh Watson return for 3 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 4:0999% → 100%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
99.3%
Jr. Marvin Kinsey run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+3
99.3%
Jr. Marvin Kinsey run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
99.3%
Jr. Marvin Kinsey run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+2
99.3%
Jr. Marvin Kinsey run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
99.3%
Jr. Marvin Kinsey run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.3%
Jr. Marvin Kinsey run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. 4 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
100.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+7
100.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
100.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
100.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:39
Jake Luton pass intercepted for a TD Tre Thomas return for 44 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+14.5
TD · Q4 11:52
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 25 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
-11
TD · Q4 10:23
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 20 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com