Try the model
USC

USC 30 at California 20

CAL
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · California Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:30 · Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 16 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 196Pregame prior−2.3Home team on offense−43.2Score differential−18.9Garbage-time factor−18.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Matt Anderson 21 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +6.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 14:05: Chase McGrath 46 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +5.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:11: Stephen Carr run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +11.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:56: Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +8.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:53: Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +4.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 8 of 11USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:34USC 4th & 12 at USC 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:46CAL 4th & 5 at USC 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:33USC 4th & 7 at CAL 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:39USC 4th & 10 at CAL 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:45CAL 4th & 1 at USC 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.5%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:31CAL 4th & 1 at USC 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:04CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:53CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:59USC 4th & 4 at CAL 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00CAL 4th & 1 at USC 4, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    65% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%−2.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−10.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:40CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.4%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:41CAL 4th & 8 at USC 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−9.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:42USC 4th & 1 at CAL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−3.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−11.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:01CAL 4th & 4 at USC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%−3.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:05USC 4th & 8 at CAL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−12.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:22USC 4th & 12 at USC 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:24CAL 4th & 5 at USC 30, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:50USC 4th & 10 at USC 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:30CAL 4th & 10 at USC 24, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:31CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:20USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:11USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:56USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:53CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1691% → 91%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.0%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
9.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
9.3%
Sam Darnold sacked by Alex Funches for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
9.5%
Reid Budrovich punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:4410% → 11%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
9.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
9.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 3 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+22
9.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 22 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
10.0%
Fumble by Ross Bowers, Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Malik McMorrisSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
10.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 9 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
10.4%
Malik McMorris run for 4 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
10.6%
Vic Wharton III pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
10.7%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
10.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
10.9%
Matt Anderson 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3DOWNS
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:5789% → 88%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
10.9%
Velus Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+15
11.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 15 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
11.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 11 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-15
11.5%
Malepeai, Vavae rush for 7 yards to the CALIFORNIA30, PENALTY USC clipping (Moore, Grant) 15 yards to the USC48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 25
OWN 48
+6
12.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 6 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 19
OPP 46
+12
12.3%
Stephen Carr run for 12 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
12.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
12.5%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Isaiah Pola-MaoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:3713% → 13%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
12.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 9 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+4
13.1%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
13.4%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted Jack Jones return for 15 yds to the Cal 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5787% → 87%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
12.8%
Sam Darnold run for 19 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
12.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 4 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+1
13.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the Cal 14Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-5
13.5%
USC Penalty, False Start (Chuma Edoga) to the Cal 19Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
13.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
13.5%
Chase McGrath 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
15 plays · 60 yds · 4:4714% → 20%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
14.3%
Vic Enwere run for 9 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
14.7%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
15.0%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+4
15.4%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
16.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Kamryn Bennett) to the USC 39Similar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+8
16.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 8 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
16.8%
Derrick Clark run for 6 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
16.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+23
16.2%
Vic Enwere run for 23 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Malik McMorrisSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
17.3%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the USC 1Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.1%
Malik McMorris run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q2 14:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.1%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 1:5880% → 84%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
20.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 12 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
19.9%
Stephen Carr run for 13 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
19.6%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+12
19.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 12 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
19.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler PetiteSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
19.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 12 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
19.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
15.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5718% → 20%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
18.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
18.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 13 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
19.5%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
19.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 3 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-9
20.2%
Ross Bowers sacked by Christian Rector for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 42 Ross Bowers fumbled, forced by Christian Rector, recovered by USC Cameron Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
17.2%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Cal 41 Stephen Carr fumbled, forced by Malik Psalms, recovered by Cal Luc BequetteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5920% → 19%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
20.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-4
20.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 37Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
19.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+13
19.4%
Dylan Klumph punt for 51 yds , Ajene Harris returns for 13 yds to the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11INT
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:0981% → 82%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
19.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
18.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
18.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 5 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
18.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the USC 41Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+11
18.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 11 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
18.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 12 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
18.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 11 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
18.1%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Josh Drayden return for 13 yds to the Cal 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4023% → 22%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
22.7%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
23.0%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
22.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
21.9%
Dylan Klumph punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:4681% → 81%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
19.4%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 9
50
+1
19.7%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+14
20.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 14 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
19.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 7 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+6
19.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 6 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
19.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
19.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler PetiteSimilar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+6
20.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 6 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
19.0%
Chase McGrath 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14END OF HALF
15 plays · 71 yds · 1:5521% → 28%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
20.5%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+25
20.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 25 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
23.7%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
23.5%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+27
23.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 27 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
24.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+9
24.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 9 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 1
OPP 4
0
23.9%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the USC 4Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+21
28.1%
Matt Anderson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15MISSED FG
17 plays · 59 yds · 6:0428% → 34%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
27.9%
Zion Echols run for 7 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+4
30.1%
Patrick Laird run for 4 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
30.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 5 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
31.6%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-5
30.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Patrick Mekari) to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
29.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 8 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
31.1%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
33.7%
Zion Echols run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 49Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+18
33.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 18 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
35.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
35.8%
Derrick Clark run for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+16
34.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 16 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
36.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
37.0%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
36.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Gavin ReinwaldSimilar
Q3 8:41
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
34.3%
Matt Anderson 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:3870% → 69%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
30.3%
Stephen Carr run for 8 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+10
29.3%
Stephen Carr run for 10 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
29.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 14 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
27.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 10 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
28.2%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
27.2%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+3
28.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 3 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-1
30.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:2836% → 40%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
36.4%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+20
36.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 20 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
40.6%
Ross Bowers sacked by Christian Rector for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+7
37.9%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+5
39.8%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
39.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:5068% → 71%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
32.0%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+1
31.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 1 yd to the USC 48Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+7
32.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 7 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
32.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
32.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 6 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+9
33.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 9 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
31.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
32.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
34.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
29.1%
Chase McGrath 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
31.3%
Ross Bowers sacked by Josh Fatu for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 4 Ross Bowers fumbled, forced by Josh Fatu, recovered by USC Uchenna Nwosu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:3475% → 87%
Q4 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
24.8%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Cal 2Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.4%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1515% → 14%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
14.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+49
14.3%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted Ykili Ross return for 49 yds to the Cal 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:3488% → 96%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
12.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 1 yd to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
12.2%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+9
12.6%
Stephen Carr run for 9 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
12.0%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+19
12.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 19 yds to the Cal 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:304% → 5%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
4.3%
Patrick Laird run for 20 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
4.6%
Patrick Laird run for 10 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
4.9%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-15
4.8%
Laird, Patrick rush for loss of 2 yards to the USC47, PENALTY CALIFORNIA illegal block (Curhan, Jake) 15 yards to the CALIFORNIA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 25
OWN 40
+16
4.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 16 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
4.7%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted Jack Jones return for no gain to the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:3897% → 98%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
3.1%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
3.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
3.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 8 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
2.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-5
2.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+1
2.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 1 yd to the USC 39Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
2.4%
Reid Budrovich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kanawai Noa at the Cal 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25INT
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:463% → 3%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+29
3.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 29 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
3.6%
Bowers, Ross pass incomplete to Veasy, Jordan, PENALTY USC pass interference (Langley, Isaiah) 13 yards to the USC35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
3.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
3.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
3.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+7
2.6%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted Chris Hawkins return for 7 yds to the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1098% → 99%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
2.3%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-1
1.9%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 18Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 7
OWN 18
-3
1.9%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 15Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+3
1.4%
Reid Budrovich punt for 50 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 3 yds to the USC 18 USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Bubba Bolden) to the USC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 1:571% → 6%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
1.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 15
OWN 48
0
1.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 15
OWN 48
-10
1.1%
Zion Echols run for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 25
OWN 38
+38
1.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 38 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
1.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
1.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
1.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+16
1.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 16 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
5.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
2.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-1
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 12
OPP 47
-1
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:11
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q4 10:56
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-8.2
FG · Q2 0:00
Matt Anderson 21 yd FG GOOD
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com