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ORE

Oregon 35 at Arizona State 37

ASU
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:34 · Adam Stack punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior−18.5Home team on offense+9.2Garbage-time factor+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score differential+3.0Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:31: Royce Freeman run for 12 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +18.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:53: Demario Richard run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +21.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:33: Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 22 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +19.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 6:41: Justin Herbert run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +31.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:33: Brandon Ruiz 41 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +24.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12ORE made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ORE 4th & 14 at ORE 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:11ASU 4th & 2 at ORE 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    21.4%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:30ASU 4th & 10 at ORE 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ORE 4th & 11 at ASU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52ASU 4th & 11 at ASU 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:57ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:36ASU 4th & 11 at ASU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:45ORE 4th & 5 at ASU 41, down 10
    Close callPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:33ASU 4th & 16 at ASU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−3.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:31ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:06ASU 4th & 12 at ASU 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:50ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:34ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:55ASU 4th & 17 at ASU 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−4.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:24ASU 4th & 1 at ORE 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.4%−3.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:25ASU 4th & 5 at ORE 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−15.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:25ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:36ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 32, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−2.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:33ASU 4th & 7 at ORE 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−12.7
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−24.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:25ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.9%−5.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:03ASU 4th & 5 at ORE 45, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−3.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−2.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:46ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 22, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.7%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:56ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:11ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:15ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:31ORE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:34ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:53ASU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:02ORE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:33ORE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:41ORE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−2.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.2%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.2%
[SG], PENALTY ORE false start (Pisarcik, Jake) 5 yards to the ORE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
17.2%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
17.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 3 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
17.2%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 21Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
17.2%
TEAM punt, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:3418% → 20%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
18.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 7 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+2
18.0%
Kyle Williams run for 2 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+17
18.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 17 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
18.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 6 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
19.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4581% → 80%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.3%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-7
19.3%
Taj Griffin run for 3 yds to the Oregn 32 OREGON Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+28
19.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
50
+19
19.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 19 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
19.0%
Royce Freeman run for 20 yds to the ArzSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
19.0%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
19.0%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
19.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5620% → 28%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.1%
Demario Richard run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
20.4%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
20.3%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+10
20.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
50
-2
20.5%
N'Keal Harry run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+8
20.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 8 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+2
20.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+16
20.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 16 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
20.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 1 yd to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
20.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+11
20.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 11 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
20.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 9 yds to the Oregn 5 OREGON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 1
OPP 5
0
20.7%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the Oregn 5Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
20.5%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 1:4428% → 29%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
27.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 18 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
27.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+20
27.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 20 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
27.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
27.8%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the Oregn 11Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
27.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+29
28.9%
Brandon Ruiz 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:3071% → 69%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
29.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 31 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
28.0%
Justin Herbert run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
28.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-3
28.2%
Justin Herbert sacked by J'Marcus Rhodes for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
30.9%
Adam Stack punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
30.6%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+8
30.5%
Kyle Williams run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+2
30.1%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
30.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+32
30.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
50
-10
31.7%
Ryan Newsome run for a loss of 10 yards to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+9
31.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 9 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
30.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
29.9%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
34.2%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
34.0%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
34.0%
Justin Herbert run for 1 yd to the Oregn 32 Justin Herbert fumbled, recovered by Oregn Justin HerbertSimilar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
34.7%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 8
OWN 32
-3
35.1%
Adam Stack punt for 50 yds , Ryan Newsome returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
35.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
35.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Arrion SpringsSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
34.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+6
34.3%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 38 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 6 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
35.3%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-5
35.0%
Herbert, Justin pass complete to Mitchell, D. for 7 yards to the ASU33, out-of-bounds (Lucas, Chase), PENALTY ORE ineligible downfield on pass (Hanson, Jake) 5 yards to the ASU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+4
35.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 4 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
35.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
36.5%
OREGON Penalty, delay of game ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
36.5%
Adam Stack punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
38.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-8
38.0%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Jalen Jelks for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 15
OWN 15
-1
37.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
36.3%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 37 yds, downed at the Oregn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
39.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+10
40.8%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-5
39.6%
[NHSG], PENALTY ORE false start (Lemieux, Shane) 5 yards to the ASU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-4
40.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
42.4%
Adam Stack punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Newsome at the ArzSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:3444% → 48%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
44.1%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+14
43.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 14 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
44.3%
[NHSG], Wilkins, Manny pass complete to Harry, N'Keal for 36 yards to the ORE34 (Springs, Arrion), PENALTY ASU ineligible downfield on pass declined, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Harry, N'Keal) 15 yards to the ASU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 25
OWN 15
-1
43.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 26
OWN 14
0
43.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle Williams, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 26
OWN 14
+14
42.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+8
48.3%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 34 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 8 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0352% → 49%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
48.3%
[SG], Herbert, Justin rush for 6 yards to the ASU48 (Latu, Alani), PENALTY ORE holding (Pisarcik, Jake) 10 yards to the ORE36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 20
OWN 36
-5
50.3%
Jaylon Redd run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 31Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 25
OWN 31
+18
50.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 18 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
49.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Brenden SchoolerSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
51.0%
Adam Stack punt for 40 yds , Ryan Newsome returns for no gain to the ArzSt 12 Ryan Newsome fumbled, recovered by Oregn La'Mar Winston Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
32.8%
Royce Freeman run for 12 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
Q2 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
32.8%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
37.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2639% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.7%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
38.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 10 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+63
39.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 63 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0046% → 43%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.3%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
54.5%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
55.7%
[NHSG], PENALTY ORE false start (Pisarcik, Jake) 5 yards to the ORE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
56.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon Redd, broken up by J'Marcus RhodesSimilar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
56.8%
Adam Stack punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:4558% → 78%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
58.2%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
58.3%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+47
57.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 47 yds to the Oregn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
78.2%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5126% → 44%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+21
72.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
50
0
71.1%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
50
+10
72.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
71.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 2 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+18
71.4%
Justin Herbert run for 18 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
56.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 20 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0062% → 59%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
61.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
61.4%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+15
60.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Defensive holding (Kaulana Apelu) to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
63.6%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 16
OWN 35
0
61.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 16
OWN 35
-1
60.1%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Jalen Jelks for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 17
OWN 34
+15
59.2%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 43 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 15 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 1:1936% → 53%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
64.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 19 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
61.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Taj GriffinSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
62.2%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+10
62.5%
[NHSG], Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Williams, J., PENALTY ASU holding (Rhodes, J.) 10 yards to the ASU30, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
60.4%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+22
41.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 22 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
Q3 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
47.1%
OREGON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tony Brooks-James) to the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
50.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
49.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+10
48.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 10 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
52.7%
[NHSG], Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Williams, Kyle, PENALTY ORE substitution infraction 5 yards to the ASU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 5
OWN 49
0
53.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
53.2%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+4
51.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
50.9%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the Oregn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
47.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
48.8%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 46 Kani Benoit fumbled, forced by JoJo Wicker, recovered by ArzSt Abraham ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:1957% → 69%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
56.8%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Jalen Jelks for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 14
50
-8
53.8%
Manny Wilkins sacked by La'Mar Winston Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 42 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 22
OWN 42
-5
51.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, delay of game (Manny Wilkins) to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 27
OWN 37
+52
50.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 52 yds to the ARIZONAST 11 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
59.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
59.7%
[NHSG], PENALTY ORE offside (Faoliu, Austin) 4 yards to the ORE4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-2
59.7%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
57.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
69.3%
Brandon Ruiz 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.8%
Justin Herbert run for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
59.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 10 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
58.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Tony Brooks-JamesSimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
59.1%
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
58.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Royce FreemanSimilar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
61.5%
Adam Stack punt for 47 yds, downed at the ArzSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
74.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+7
75.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 7 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
75.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+3
74.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 3 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
74.1%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+5
72.3%
Sleep-Dalton,M. punt 34 yards to the ORE39, fair catch by Mitchell, D., PENALTY ORE offside 5 yards to the ASU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
73.5%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the Oregn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 28TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:0130% → 70%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
69.7%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+9
68.2%
Justin Herbert run for 9 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
67.2%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+51
65.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 51 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
61.5%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.9%
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 29FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:5944% → 75%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
43.6%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
47.1%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
44.5%
Demario Richard run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
48.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 15 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
50.4%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-1
52.5%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+10
49.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 10 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
52.5%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+2
52.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
49.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
74.5%
Brandon Ruiz 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 30DOWNS
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0034% → 37%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
66.0%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Griffin, Taj, PENALTY ASU holding (Rhodes, J.) 10 yards to the ORE26, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
65.5%
[NHSG], Herbert, Justin pass incomplete, PENALTY ASU personal foul (Smallwood, T.) 15 yards to the ORE41, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
61.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 4 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-6
59.8%
Justin Herbert sacked by Alani Latu for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+9
66.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 9 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+2
63.4%
Justin Herbert run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0687% → 87%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
50
+5
87.4%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
89.6%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
88.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Arrion SpringsSimilar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
87.3%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 35 yds, downed at the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 32DOWNS
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0026% → 23%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
73.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 12 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
73.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
73.6%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
75.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
76.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:41
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
-31.6
FG · Q4 2:33
Brandon Ruiz 41 yd FG GOOD
+24.7
TD · Q3 10:53
Demario Richard run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+21.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com