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UTAH

Utah 30 at Arizona 24

ARIZ
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2017 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-2.5ARIZ 32.3%Matt Gay 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 3 · Q2 5:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:39 · Matt Gay 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Home team on offense−7.8Pregame prior−7.5Garbage-time factor−2.0Score differential−4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:39: Brandon Dawkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +13.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 9:46: Troy Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +11.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:38: J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +20.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 2:03: Brandon Dawkins pass intercepted for a TD Javelin Guidry return for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +20.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:44: Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 30 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +21.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UTAH made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:54ARIZ 4th & 4 at UTAH 15, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:00ARIZ 4th & 17 at ARIZ 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:28UTAH 4th & 5 at ARIZ 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.0%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:39UTAH 4th & 8 at ARIZ 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:18UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.9%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:15UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−2.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:13UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00ARIZ 4th & 1 at UTAH 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−2.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−9.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:13UTAH 4th & 2 at UTAH 33, up 10
    Close callPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:40ARIZ 4th & 2 at UTAH 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.2%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:30ARIZ 4th & 12 at UTAH 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−5.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:58UTAH 4th & 7 at ARIZ 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−5.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:14UTAH 4th & 7 at UTAH 38, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:35UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:39ARIZ Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:46UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:38ARIZ Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:03UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:44ARIZ Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
37.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
37.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 8 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
37.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete, broken up by Chase HansenSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
37.5%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
37.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
37.5%
Jake Glatting punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Utah 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:2662% → 63%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
38.2%
Zack Moss run for 3 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+20
38.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
50
+25
38.0%
Zack Moss run for 25 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
38.0%
Zack Moss run for 13 yds to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
38.0%
Tyler Huntley run for 4 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
37.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 3:4138% → 39%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
37.6%
Brandon Dawkins run for 15 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
37.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
37.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+10
37.6%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
38.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Utah 48Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
38.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+10
37.8%
Brandon Dawkins run for 10 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
38.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 6 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+11
38.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 11 yds to the Utah 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
38.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Utah 19Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
38.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+4
38.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 4 yds to the Utah 15Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
39.4%
Josh Pollack 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 41 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.0%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 6 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
38.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 9 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
38.4%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
38.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 17 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
38.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 13 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
38.1%
UTAH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+9
38.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 9 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+2
38.0%
Zack Moss run for 2 yds to the Ariz 34 Zack Moss fumbled, forced by Kylan Wilborn, recovered by Ariz Kylan WilbornSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
39.5%
Brandon Dawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 32Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 12
OWN 32
0
39.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-5
38.9%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Bradlee Anae for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 17
OWN 27
+48
38.6%
Jake Glatting punt for 49 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 48 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0162% → 64%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-9
38.1%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Finton Connolly and Larry Tharpe Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 19
OPP 37
+14
38.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 14 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
38.6%
Tyler Huntley run for no gain to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
36.1%
Matt Gay 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FUMBLE
11 plays · 68 yds · 0:2837% → 39%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
36.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
36.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 7 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
36.5%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive offside (6 Yards) to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
37.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
37.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
36.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 8 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+18
37.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 18 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
39.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 8 yds to the Utah 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+15
39.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 15 yds to the Utah 1 J.J. Taylor fumbled, forced by Casey Hughes, recovered by Utah Boobie Hobbs , return for a loss of 6 yards to the Utah 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8FG
16 plays · 85 yds · 6:2063% → 68%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
36.7%
Zack Moss run for 3 yds to the Utah 4Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+8
36.7%
Tyler Huntley run for 8 yds to the Utah 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
36.4%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 7 yds to the Utah 19Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+6
36.0%
Zack Moss run for 6 yds to the Utah 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
36.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Troy McCormick Jr. for 8 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-7
35.5%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Tony Fields II for a loss of 7 yards to the Utah 26Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+40
37.1%
Troy Williams pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 40 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
34.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Samson Nacua for 1 yd to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, false start (15 Yards) to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
34.4%
Troy Williams run for 9 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+6
34.4%
Zack Moss run for 6 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
34.4%
UTAH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 8Similar
Q2 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
34.4%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Siaosi WilsonSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
34.4%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
34.8%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
32.3%
Matt Gay 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0032% → 46%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
32.3%
Shun Brown run for 22 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
33.9%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 7
50
+4
34.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 4 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
34.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 5 yds to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
34.3%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
34.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nick WilsonSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+24
34.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 24 yds to the Utah 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
35.5%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Utah 11Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+5
35.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 5 yds to the Utah 6Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+5
32.4%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Utah 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.6%
Brandon Dawkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2161% → 60%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
39.0%
Troy Williams pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 7 yds to the Utah 42Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
37.4%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
38.0%
Zack Moss run for 2 yds to the Utah 44Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+9
39.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Utah 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Ariz Justin Belknap , return for 9 yds to the Utah 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11MISSED FG
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1147% → 47%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
47.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+43
47.1%
Josh Pollack 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1460% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.9%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 5 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
39.1%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 7 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
38.9%
Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 21 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
37.4%
Zack Moss run for 8 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+3
36.3%
Troy Williams run for 3 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
36.6%
UTAH Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 41
0
38.0%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Siaosi WilsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 41
-9
38.3%
UTAH Penalty, Offensive holding (-9 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 29
50
+11
38.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 11 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 39
+37
39.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 37 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
37.2%
Sunia Tauteoli run for 1 yd to the Ariz 1Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.2%
Troy Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13INT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
28.0%
Brandon Dawkins run for no gain to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
28.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 7 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+5
28.6%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
29.3%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the Utah 48Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-3
30.3%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+1
28.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass intercepted Chase Hansen return for 1 yd to the Utah 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
26.2%
Zack Moss run for 1 yd to the Utah 32Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
26.4%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
27.1%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
27.9%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:4526% → 50%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
25.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 3 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
25.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 6 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+32
26.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 32 yds to the Utah 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
30.0%
Brandon Dawkins run for 1 yd to the Utah 26 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, personal foul (13 Yards) to the Utah 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
30.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Utah 7Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
50.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:2560% → 59%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
39.6%
Troy Williams pass complete to Kyle Fulks for 8 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
38.1%
Zack Moss run for 3 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
38.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Zack Moss for 4 yds to the Utah 40Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
37.0%
Troy Williams pass incomplete, broken up by Dereck BolesSimilar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
38.7%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Darren Carrington II, broken up by Demetrius Flannigan-FowlesSimilar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
41.3%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 55 yds, downed at the Ariz 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17INT TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:5044% → 23%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
43.5%
Brandon Dawkins run for 6 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+1
43.7%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 12Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+14
22.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass intercepted for a TD Javelin Guidry return for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:0324% → 25%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.0%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
24.5%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
25.5%
Brandon Dawkins run for 14 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
27.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 44Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+10
26.6%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Utah 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
29.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 1 yd to the Utah 33Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
29.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+6
26.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Nick Wilson for 6 yds to the Utah 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
25.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 2 yds to the Utah 27Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
21.7%
Zack Moss run for 7 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
21.5%
Zack Moss run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 33Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
22.3%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20MISSED FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:1020% → 16%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
20.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 12 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
20.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Bryce WolmaSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+16
20.2%
Nick Wilson run for 16 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
22.2%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
23.1%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+3
22.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 3 yds to the Utah 49Similar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+22
21.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 22 yds to the Utah 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
26.7%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 29Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 12
OPP 29
0
25.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nick WilsonSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
22.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nick WilsonSimilar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+47
15.7%
Lucas Havrisik 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Lowell Lotulelei TEAM return for no gain to the Utah 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:3288% → 96%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
12.1%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 9 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+3
11.2%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 3 yds to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
11.3%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 6 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+15
11.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
10.6%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 1 yd to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
10.3%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 24Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+5
10.6%
Zack Moss run for 5 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
10.6%
Darren Carrington II pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
4.0%
Matt Gay 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:148% → 34%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
7.6%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Chris Hart for a loss of 7 yards to the Ariz 18Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+26
7.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 26 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
8.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 8 yds to the Utah 48Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+11
9.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 11 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
9.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
12.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+30
33.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 30 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
35.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 15 yds to the Utah 20 Brandon Dawkins fumbled, forced by Casey Hughes, recovered by Utah Chris HartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:1986% → 89%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
13.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
13.5%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 34Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
13.2%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 2 yds to the Utah 36Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+2
11.3%
Troy Williams run for 2 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
10.9%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
22.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to J.J. Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 22Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
21.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 7 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
21.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass intercepted Corrion Ballard return for no gain to the Utah 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
5.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 43Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-5
5.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Utah 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:44
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 30 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
+21.5
TD · Q3 2:03
Brandon Dawkins pass intercepted for a TD Javelin Guidry return for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK)
-20.8
TD · Q3 4:38
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
+20.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com