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STAN

Stanford 17 at San Diego State 20

SDSU
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+6.5SDSU 57.7%John Baron II 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 13 · Q3 8:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:33 · John Baron II 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior−11.1Home team on offense+8.1Garbage-time factor+1.8Score differential+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:43: Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +10.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:33: John Baron II 36 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:51: Bryce Love run for 53 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +25.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:54: Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 8 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +62.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:36: Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 37 — SDSU win probability +16.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:37STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:29SDSU 4th & 2 at STAN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:33STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:58SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:33STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:05SDSU 4th & 10 at STAN 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:46SDSU 4th & 14 at STAN 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:55STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:56SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:16STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 36, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:50SDSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:33SDSU 4th & 6 at STAN 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−8.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:51STAN 4th & 1 at SDSU 4, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    65% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%−5.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−21.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:42SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:05SDSU 4th & 23 at STAN 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−5.0
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:15STAN 4th & 12 at STAN 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−5.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 12:38STAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:43SDSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:51STAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:54SDSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−4.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1876% → 75%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.2%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 4 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-8
24.5%
Keller Chryst sacked by Noble Hall for a loss of 8 yards to the Stanf 21Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
24.9%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
24.9%
Jake Bailey punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Quest Truxton at the SDSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:5125% → 27%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
25.1%
Christian Chapman run for 4 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
25.4%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
25.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
50
+13
26.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 13 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
26.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 3
OPP 30
-7
26.7%
Christian Chapman sacked by Mike Tyler for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 37Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+8
26.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 8 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+1
27.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the Stanf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4273% → 72%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
26.9%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 28Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
27.1%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
27.3%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
27.6%
Jake Bailey punt for 52 yds, downed at the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2727% → 28%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
27.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-9
27.8%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 15 Rashaad Penny fumbled, recovered by SDStSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+8
27.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 8 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
27.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1572% → 71%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
27.9%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
28.0%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Scooter Harrington for 4 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
28.1%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
28.7%
Jake Bailey punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quest Truxton at the SDSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 6:1729% → 33%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
28.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+13
29.1%
Juwan Washington run for 13 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
29.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 3 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
30.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
30.4%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+5
29.8%
STANFORD Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
31.5%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+6
31.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 6 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
32.2%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
32.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+14
32.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 14 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
33.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
33.7%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-2
33.3%
Christian Chapman sacked by Bobby Okereke for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 26Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
33.2%
John Baron II 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:0767% → 72%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
33.0%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+11
33.1%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 11 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
28.0%
Bryce Love run for 51 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:4330% → 30%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
30.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 15 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
31.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 22 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
33.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-7
32.8%
Christian Chapman sacked by Joey Alfieri for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 41 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Stanf 41Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+2
30.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 2 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
30.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:4369% → 68%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
30.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 17 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
30.0%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
30.0%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 5 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-10
29.2%
Keller Chryst sacked by Kameron Kelly for a loss of 10 yards to the Stanf 33Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+2
31.9%
Jake Bailey punt for 40 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 2 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:5431% → 31%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
31.1%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
30.8%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+9
30.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 9 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
33.2%
Washington, Juwan rush for no gain to the SANDIEGOST41, PENALTY SANDIEGOST holding 10 yards to the SANDIEGOST31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 20
OWN 31
-3
31.3%
Christian Chapman sacked by Harrison Phillips for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 23
OWN 28
0
31.3%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 23
OWN 28
+13
30.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 13 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+3
30.8%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 34 yds , Jay Tyler returns for 3 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2969% → 69%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
30.9%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Connor Wedington for 8 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
29.4%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
29.8%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
30.8%
Jake Bailey punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:2334% → 32%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.1%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-15
33.0%
Christian Chapman sacked by Eric Cotton for a loss of 15 yards to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 25
OWN 25
+7
32.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 18
OWN 32
+4
31.9%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 49 yds , Jay Tyler returns for 4 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:2368% → 67%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
31.6%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Bryce Love for 3 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
31.2%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-5
32.1%
STANFORD Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 21Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+22
32.9%
Keller Chryst pass intercepted Ron Smith return for 22 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:2739% → 49%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
38.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 7 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+4
38.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 4 yds to the Stanf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
49.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:1756% → 57%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
44.0%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 16 yds to the SANDIEGOST 40 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
42.3%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-2
42.7%
Keller Chryst sacked by Kameron Kelly for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 27 Keller Chryst fumbled, recovered by SDStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
45.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 6:2044% → 58%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
47.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
46.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
47.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 14 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
49.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 14 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
51.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 8 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+5
51.4%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the Stanf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
52.0%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the Stanf 22Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
52.6%
Christian Chapman run for 1 yd to the Stanf 21Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+8
52.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Juwan Washington for 8 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 1
OPP 13
-5
51.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 18Similar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+36
57.7%
John Baron II 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18FG
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:3946% → 54%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.8%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.1%
Bryce Love run for 9 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
52.4%
Bryce Love run for 6 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+47
52.0%
Bryce Love run for 47 yds to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
48.1%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 5 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
48.5%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the SDSt 4Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 1
OPP 4
0
51.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the SDSt 4Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+20
46.4%
Jet Toner 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:5852% → 53%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 7 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
54.3%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
53.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
56.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 4 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-3
57.7%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 46Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
54.6%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+18
53.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 47 yds to the SDSt 7, Jay Tyler returns for 18 yds to the SDSt 25. SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:3747% → 75%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
52.6%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 7 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
49.9%
Trevor Speights run for 2 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q3 0:22
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
50.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
25.3%
Bryce Love run for 53 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:3932% → 31%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
32.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 6 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
32.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 8 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
36.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 4 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+36
36.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 36 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
40.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+1
39.9%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the Stanf 24Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 14
OPP 24
0
38.2%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 14
OPP 24
-9
35.4%
Christian Chapman sacked by Casey Toohill for a loss of 9 yards to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 23
OPP 33
+50
31.3%
John Baron II 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:3975% → 74%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
25.2%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
24.4%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
23.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
22.4%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 39Similar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 15
OWN 39
-6
24.3%
Keller Chryst sacked by Troy Cassidy and Anthony Luke for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 21
OWN 33
+9
23.9%
Connor Wedington run for 9 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
23.8%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
26.2%
Jake Bailey punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0932% → 93%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
32.5%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
30.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 16 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
33.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+11
34.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
33.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+12
31.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Juwan Washington for 12 yds to the Stanf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
33.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
34.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+11
30.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 11 yds to the Stanf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
92.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 8 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Keller Chryst pass intercepted Kameron Kelly return for no gain to the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.0%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:54
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 8 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
+62.1
TD · Q4 14:51
Bryce Love run for 53 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)
-25
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:36
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 37
+16.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com