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ORE

Oregon 49 at Wyoming 13

WYO
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:41 · Tim Zaleski punt for 43 yds , Charles Nelson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 25 Charles Nelson fumbled, recovered by Wyom Drew Van Maanen
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense−3.4Pregame prior−31.4Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:48: Josh Allen run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +2.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 1:37: Cooper Rothe 30 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +1.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 12:19: Justin Herbert run for 9 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +4.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:58: Justin Herbert pass complete to Taj Griffin for 20 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +7.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:00: Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +6.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 7 of 11ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:04WYO 4th & 15 at WYO 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:41WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:37WYO 4th & 2 at ORE 13, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%−0.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ORE 4th & 1 at WYO 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−0.8
    74% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:19WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:50ORE 4th & 13 at ORE 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:02WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:58WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 34, down 18
    Close callPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ORE 4th & 2 at WYO 47, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:36WYO 4th & 6 at ORE 38, down 32
    Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:15WYO 4th & 7 at ORE 25, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:15ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:21WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 44, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:19ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 25, up 36
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:57WYO 4th & 1 at ORE 37, down 36
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:04ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:41ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:48WYO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:19ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:58ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:00ORE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:43ORE Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:13ORE Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WYODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
15.9%
Milo Hall run for 2 yds to the Wyom 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
15.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 5 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-4
15.9%
Josh Allen sacked by Arrion Springs for a loss of 4 yards to the Wyom 26Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
15.9%
Tim Zaleski punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 3:5683% → 83%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
16.7%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+11
16.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 11 yds to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
16.7%
Royce Freeman run for 14 yds to the Wyom 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
16.7%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Wyom 25 OREGON Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Wyom 35Similar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 16
OPP 35
-1
16.7%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 36Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 17
OPP 36
+7
16.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 7 yds to the Wyom 29Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+14
16.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 14 yds to the Wyom 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
16.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the Wyom 15Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-1
16.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 16Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+13
16.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 13 yds to the Wyom 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
16.7%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Wyom 1Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.1%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.5%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.5%
WYOMING Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Wyom 20Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
17.5%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
17.4%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+3
17.3%
Tim Zaleski punt for 34 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 3 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:5383% → 84%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
17.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 8 yds to the Wyom 43Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+3
17.1%
Justin Herbert run for 3 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
17.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 17 yds to the Wyom 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
17.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 14 yds to the Wyom 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
17.0%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Wyom 3Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
15.6%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.5%
Kellen Overstreet run for 2 yds to the Wyom 27Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
16.5%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 3 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
16.5%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-2
16.4%
Tim Zaleski punt for 43 yds , Charles Nelson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 25 Charles Nelson fumbled, recovered by Wyom Drew Van MaanenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:3117% → 20%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
17.2%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tyree Mayfield, broken up by Nick PickettSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
17.2%
Milo Hall run for 14 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
17.2%
Milo Hall run for 1 yd to the Oregn 10Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
17.2%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
19.7%
Josh Allen run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.6%
Charles Nelson run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
18.5%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
18.8%
Justin Herbert sacked by Carl Granderson for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 21 Justin Herbert fumbled, recovered by Wyom Kevin Prosser , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2320% → 22%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
20.3%
Austin Conway pass complete to Josh Allen for 2 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+6
20.3%
Josh Allen run for 6 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
0
20.0%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tyree Mayfield, broken up by Jonah MoiSimilar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
21.7%
Cooper Rothe 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:1879% → 83%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.2%
Justin Herbert run for 6 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
20.8%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
21.0%
Justin Herbert run for 7 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
20.6%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+20
21.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 20 yds to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
21.0%
Royce Freeman run for 12 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
20.7%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Wyom 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
20.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+6
21.2%
Justin Herbert run for 6 yds to the Wyom 21Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+1
21.5%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
20.6%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
20.7%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Wyom 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
21.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Wyom 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
16.9%
Justin Herbert run for 9 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
18.1%
Trey Woods run for 14 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
18.5%
Trey Woods run for 1 yd to the Wyom 40Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
18.5%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
18.1%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
17.7%
Tim Zaleski punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
17.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darrian McNealSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
18.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
18.3%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 8
OWN 18
-5
18.5%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 13Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 13
OWN 13
+14
18.5%
Adam Stack punt for 45 yds , Austin Conway returns for 14 yds to the Wyom 27 WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Wyom 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
19.1%
Milo Hall run for no gain to the Wyom 41Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
18.9%
Milo Hall run for 4 yds to the Wyom 45Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
18.7%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+37
18.2%
Tim Zaleski punt for 37 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:3682% → 90%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
18.3%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-3
18.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 17Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+50
19.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 50 yds to the Wyom 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
17.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darrian McNealSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
17.2%
Kani Benoit run for 12 yds to the Wyom 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
17.1%
Justin Herbert run for 1 yd to the Wyom 20Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+20
9.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Taj Griffin for 20 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.9%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Austin ConwaySimilar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.8%
Kellen Overstreet run for 4 yds to the Wyom 29Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
12.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 5 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
13.2%
Tim Zaleski punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:4090% → 98%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
10.3%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+16
10.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 16 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
9.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Kani Benoit for 8 yds to the Wyom 47Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+5
9.5%
Justin Herbert run for 5 yds to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
9.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darrian McNeal, broken up by Robert PriesterSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+27
9.8%
Kani Benoit run for 27 yds to the Wyom 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
9.4%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Wyom 10Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
9.4%
Taj Griffin run for 3 yds to the Wyom 7Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+4
9.6%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Wyom 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
9.3%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Wyom 1Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.5%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
2.7%
Josh Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 4 Josh Allen fumbled, forced by Justin Hollins, recovered by Oregn Tyree Robinson , return for 30 yds to the Wyom 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0397% → 98%
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
3.1%
WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (2 Yards) to the Wyom 2Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.5%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
3.4%
Milo Hall run for 6 yds to the Wyom 27Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+12
3.3%
Milo Hall run for 12 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
2.7%
Royce Freeman run for 20 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
2.6%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the Wyom 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-1
2.5%
Justin Herbert sacked by Andrew Wingard for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+1
2.6%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Wyom 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-1
2.9%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
4.5%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
4.3%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+10
4.3%
ALLEN, Josh pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY ORE pass interference 10 yards to the ORE42, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
4.7%
Trey Woods run for 1 yd to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+3
4.5%
Trey Woods run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
4.5%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Austin ConwaySimilar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
4.4%
Tim Zaleski punt for 28 yds, downed at the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21INT
10 plays · 61 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+28
2.0%
Royce Freeman run for 28 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
1.9%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
1.9%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
1.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+15
2.1%
WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Wyom 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
1.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Taj Griffin, broken up by Marcus EppsSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
1.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Wyom 37Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+11
1.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 11 yds to the Wyom 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
1.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 29Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+8
1.8%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Rico Gafford return for 8 yds to the Wyom 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 6:132% → 1%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
2.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 8 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 2
OWN 36
-2
2.0%
Milo Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 34Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
2.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Nico Evans for 6 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
2.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 21 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
2.2%
Josh Allen run for no gain to the Oregn 38 Josh Allen fumbled, recovered by Wyom Jaylon Watson , return for 1 yd to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+6
2.1%
Milo Hall run for 6 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+4
2.3%
Milo Hall run for 4 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
1.1%
Josh Allen run for 4 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-4
1.0%
Milo Hall run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+3
1.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Milo Hall for 3 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
0.9%
Cooper Rothe 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
1.7%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 23Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
1.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Royce FreemanSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+9
1.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 9 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
1.6%
Adam Stack punt for 23 yds , Austin Conway returns for no gain to the Wyom 47 Austin Conway fumbled, recovered by Wyom Austin ConwaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
0.8%
Trey Woods run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 7
50
+6
0.8%
Trey Woods run for 6 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
0.8%
Josh Allen run for 4 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
0.8%
Josh Allen pass intercepted A.J. Hotchkins return for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3499% → 100%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
0.6%
WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
0.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 15 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
0.5%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the Wyom 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
0.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Alex Ofodile for 12 yds to the Wyom 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
0.5%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Wyom 12Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
0.5%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Wyom 9Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+4
0.5%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Wyom 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
0.5%
Taj Griffin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 8Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
0.5%
Kani Benoit run for 4 yds to the Wyom 4Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.3%
Kani Benoit run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
0.2%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 23Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-10
0.2%
ALLEN, Josh rush for 3 yards to the WY26, out-of-bounds, PENALTY WY holding 10 yards to the WY13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+15
0.2%
Josh Allen pass complete to John Okwoli for 15 yds to the Wyom 28Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
0.2%
ALLEN, Josh sacked for loss of 10 yards to the WY18 (Mondeaux, Henry), PENALTY ORE personal foul 15 yards to the WY43, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
0.1%
Trey Woods run for 3 yds to the Wyom 46Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
0.1%
Trey Woods run for 2 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-4
0.1%
Josh Allen sacked by Jonah Moi for a loss of 4 yards to the Wyom 44Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
0.1%
Tim Zaleski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Darrian McNeal at the Oregn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
0.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Alex OfodileSimilar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
0.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+9
0.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 9 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Adam Stack punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
0.1%
Trey Woods run for 3 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
0.1%
Trey Woods run for 4 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
0.1%
Trey Woods run for 2 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
0.1%
Tim Zaleski punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29END OF GAME
9 plays · 70 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
0.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 11 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
0.1%
Taj Griffin run for 3 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+18
0.1%
Taylor Alie run for 18 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
0.1%
Taj Griffin run for 1 yd to the Wyom 47Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+12
0.1%
Taj Griffin run for 12 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
0.1%
Taj Griffin run for 19 yds to the Wyom 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
0.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Wyom 12Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
0.1%
Taylor Alie pass incomplete to Tony Brooks-James, broken up by Alijah HalliburtonSimilar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+2
0.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the Wyom 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:58
Justin Herbert pass complete to Taj Griffin for 20 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q2 1:00
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q2 12:19
Justin Herbert run for 9 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com