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ARIZ

Arizona 63 at UTEP 16

UTEP
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2017 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:10 · Alan Luna punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior−13.2Home team on offense−52.7Score differential−41.9Garbage-time factor−19.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:57: J.J. Taylor 2 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick) — ARIZ win probability +1.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:45: Shun Brown 36 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick) — ARIZ win probability +2.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:24: Brandon Dawkins 5 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick) — ARIZ win probability +2.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:50: Tyler Batson 9 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Brady Viles PAT failed) — UTEP win probability +1.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:36: Brandon Dawkins 3 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick) — ARIZ win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:47UTEP 4th & 15 at UTEP 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:13ARIZ 4th & 4 at UTEP 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:04UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:57ARIZ 4th & 2 at UTEP 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:24UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:34UTEP 4th & 18 at UTEP 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:31ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 23, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00UTEP 4th & 10 at ARIZ 35, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:29ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 42, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:30UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 29, down 26
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:56ARIZ 4th & 1 at UTEP 1, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:47UTEP 4th & 15 at UTEP 19, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:20ARIZ 4th & 1 at UTEP 20, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:56ARIZ 4th & 2 at UTEP 2, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:10UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 31, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:17UTEP 4th & 10 at ARIZ 47, down 40
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:51UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 30, down 47
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q2 14:57ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:45ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:24ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:34ARIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:50UTEP Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:36ARIZ Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:10ARIZ Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:54UTEP Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:56ARIZ Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:56ARIZ Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:10ARIZ Touchdown, up 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:064% → 5%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
4.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Keynan Foster for 13 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
4.3%
Walter Dawn run for 4 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
4.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josh Weeks for 2 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
4.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Tyler Batson for 5 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
4.8%
Walter Dawn run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
4.9%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Terry JunielSimilar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 15
OWN 44
0
4.9%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
5.0%
Alan Luna punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:2795% → 94%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
5.0%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+11
5.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 11 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
5.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 5 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+13
5.3%
Brandon Dawkins run for 13 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
5.4%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the UTEP 49Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
5.6%
Brandon Dawkins run for 1 yd to the UTEP 48Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+5
5.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 5 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
6.0%
Brandon Dawkins punt for 36 yds, downed at the UTEP 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:026% → 8%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
6.1%
Walter Dawn run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 5Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+6
6.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Warren Redix for 6 yds to the UTEP 11Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+9
6.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 9 yds to the UTEP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
6.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Walter Dawn for 10 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
6.9%
Walter Dawn run for 1 yd to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+6
7.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Walter Dawn for 6 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
7.6%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
7.5%
Alan Luna punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 4:0793% → 93%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
7.5%
UTEP Penalty, Defensive Offside (Denzel Chukwukelu) to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 5
OWN 27
+7
7.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 7 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
7.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 3 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+35
7.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 35 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
7.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the UTEP 27Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+12
7.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 12 yds to the UTEP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
7.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 3
OPP 8
0
7.9%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the UTEP 8Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+3
8.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the UTEP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
8.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the UTEP 3Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
8.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
8.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 1 yd to the UTEP 2Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.2%
J.J. Taylor 2 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:218% → 8%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
7.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Terry Juniel for 8 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-3
8.1%
Kevin Dove run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 35Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
7.9%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Terry JunielSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+50
7.8%
Alan Luna punt for 50 yds , Shun Brown returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:3092% → 94%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
7.9%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+8
8.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 8 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
8.2%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
8.3%
UTEP Penalty, Defensive Offside (Keith Sullivan) to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+15
8.2%
UTEP Penalty, Roughing Passer (Devin Cockrell) to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
8.1%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+6
8.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 6 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
8.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 3 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
8.2%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+36
5.9%
Shun Brown 36 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
6.6%
Kavika Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 27 Kavika Johnson fumbled, forced by Colin Schooler, recovered by ArizSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:5494% → 96%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
5.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 9 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 1
OPP 18
-5
5.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Gerhard de Beer) to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
6.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 4 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+12
6.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Jamie Nunley for 12 yds to the UTEP 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
6.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the UTEP 5Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
3.8%
Brandon Dawkins 5 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT TD
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:365% → 4%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
4.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Brandon Moss for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 14Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 14
OWN 14
-4
4.4%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Tony Fields II for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 10Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 18
OWN 10
0
4.4%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to David LuceroSimilar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 18
OWN 10
+63
3.7%
Shun Brown 63 Yd Punt Return (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:304% → 6%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
3.7%
Kevin Dove run for 6 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
3.6%
Kevin Dove run for 5 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+40
5.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Terry Juniel for 40 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
4.0%
Kevin Dove run for 6 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+9
5.6%
Tyler Batson 9 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Brady Viles PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:1396% → 95%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
4.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+3
4.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
4.9%
Jake Glatting punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+53
6.6%
Zack Greenlee pass intercepted Colin Schooler return for 53 yds to the UTEP 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13TD
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3496% → 98%
Q2 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
4.0%
Zach Green run for 2 yds to the UTEP 3Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
3.3%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the UTEP 3Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.9%
Brandon Dawkins 3 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:291% → 1%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
1.1%
Mark Torrez pass complete to Terry Juniel for 13 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
1.1%
Mark Torrez pass complete to Terry Juniel for 21 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
1.3%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Eddie SinegalSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
1.2%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to David LuceroSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
1.1%
Mark Torrez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+53
1.3%
Brady Viles 53 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4098% → 99%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
1.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 10 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
1.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Bryce WolmaSimilar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
1.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+18
1.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 18 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
1.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Tyrell JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
1.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+8
1.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 8 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
1.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 8 yds to the UTEP 21Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+8
1.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 8 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
1.0%
Brandon Dawkins 13 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:012% → 2%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
1.9%
Kevin Dove run for 3 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+14
1.3%
Mark Torrez pass complete to David Lucero for 14 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
1.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+38
1.4%
Kavika Johnson pass complete to Walter Dawn for 38 yds to the Ariz 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
1.5%
Mark Torrez 6 Yd Run (Brady Viles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
1.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 21 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
1.2%
Zach Green run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 6
50
+2
1.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-10
1.2%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Alvin Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the UTEP 42 ARIZONA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Brandon Dawkins) to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
1.3%
Jake Glatting punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
1.1%
Warren Redix run for 6 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
1.0%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to David LuceroSimilar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
1.0%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Eddie SinegalSimilar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
1.0%
Alan Luna punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:1999% → 99%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+34
1.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 34 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
1.0%
Nick Wilson run for 9 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+17
0.9%
Nick Wilson run for 17 yds to the UTEP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
0.8%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 3Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
0.7%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 6Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
0.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 5 yds to the UTEP 1Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.9%
Bryce Wolma 1 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
0.9%
Mark Torrez sacked by Anthony Pandy for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 19Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
1.0%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 15
OWN 19
0
1.0%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Terry JunielSimilar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 15
OWN 19
+5
0.9%
Alan Luna punt for 42 yds , Tony Ellison returns for 5 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21TD
13 plays · 56 yds · 6:41100% → 100%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
0.4%
Zach Green run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 4
50
+6
0.4%
Zach Green run for 6 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
0.4%
Zach Green run for 6 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+1
0.3%
Zach Green run for 1 yd to the UTEP 37Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+8
0.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 8 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
0.3%
Zach Green run for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
0.3%
Zach Green run for no gain to the UTEP 27Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+7
0.3%
Zach Green run for 7 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+13
0.4%
Brandon Dawkins run for 13 yds to the UTEP 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
0.3%
Zach Green run for 2 yds to the UTEP 5Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.3%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the UTEP 5Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.2%
Nathan Tilford run for 3 yds to the UTEP 2Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Nathan Tilford 2 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.2%
Mark Torrez pass complete to Tyler Batson for 6 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
0.2%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Alan Luna punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23FUMBLE
8 plays · 27 yds · 4:23100% → 100%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
0.2%
Nathan Tilford run for 9 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
0.2%
Nathan Tilford run for 4 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
0.2%
Nathan Tilford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+12
0.2%
Rhett Rodriguez run for 12 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
0.2%
Nathan Tilford run for 4 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+10
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Jamie Nunley for 10 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
0.1%
Nathan Tilford run for 2 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-13
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez run for a loss of 13 yards to the Ariz 47 Rhett Rodriguez fumbled, recovered by UTEP Joseph PickneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:160% → 0%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.1%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Kevin DoveSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
0.1%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Warren RedixSimilar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
0.1%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Kevin DoveSimilar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
0.1%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Josh WeeksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
0.1%
Branden Leon run for 1 yd to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+8
0.1%
Branden Leon run for 8 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+7
0.1%
Branden Leon run for 7 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
0.1%
Branden Leon run for 3 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+10
0.1%
Donavan Tate pass complete to Jack Banda for 10 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
0.1%
Branden Leon run for 10 yds to the UTEP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
0.1%
Nathan Tilford run for 14 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Keynan FosterSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
0.1%
Mark Torrez pass complete to Joshua Fields for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 23Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
0.1%
Mark Torrez pass complete to Joshua Fields for 7 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Terry JunielSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:24
Brandon Dawkins 5 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)
-2.5
TD · Q2 9:45
Shun Brown 36 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick)
-2.3
TD · Q2 2:50
Tyler Batson 9 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Brady Viles PAT failed)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com