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MINN

Minnesota 48 at Oregon State 14

ORST
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:54 · Nick Porebski punt for 35 yds, downed at the Minn 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense−5.1Score differential−1.8Garbage-time factor−2.5Pregame prior+4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:50: Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +8.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:33: Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +9.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:41: Emmit Carpenter 49 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +4.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:45: Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +14.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:34: Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +17.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:49ORST 4th & 4 at MINN 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:12MINN 4th & 4 at ORST 8, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:48ORST 4th & 6 at MINN 27, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:41MINN 4th & 28 at ORST 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:41ORST 4th & 10 at MINN 45, down 6
    Close callPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:54ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:09MINN 4th & 28 at MINN 49, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−3.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:38ORST 4th & 17 at ORST 19, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00ORST 4th & 5 at MINN 48, down 20
    Close callPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:24ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 29, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:53ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 32, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:07MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:50MINN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:10ORST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:33ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:45MINN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:34MINN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:24MINN Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:53MINN Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.5%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
58.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
58.5%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
58.5%
Ryan Santoso punt for 39 yds, downed at the OrgSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+30
58.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 30 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
58.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+1
58.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the Minn 37Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
58.8%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
58.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 2:0142% → 44%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
58.5%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
58.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
58.6%
Conor Rhoda run for 6 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
56.2%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 67 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:1957% → 57%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
56.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah Togiai, broken up by Duke McGheeSimilar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
56.5%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+10
56.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 10 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
56.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
56.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 12 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
57.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
56.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 5 yds Noah Togiai fumbled, forced by Duke McGhee, recovered by Minn Kiondre ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:2145% → 47%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
55.2%
Conor Rhoda run for 5 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
55.2%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+22
55.3%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Rodney Smith for 22 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
55.0%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 19 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
54.9%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
54.9%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+2
52.9%
Conor Rhoda run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
52.7%
Emmit Carpenter 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
51.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+2
51.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
51.6%
Jake Luton run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-8
51.7%
Jake Luton sacked by Gary Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 24 Jake Luton fumbled, recovered by Minn Kamal Martin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:3250% → 59%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
50.5%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+1
50.5%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+7
50.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
49.7%
Croft, Demry pass incomplete to Johnson, Tyler, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Crawford, X.) 6 yards to the OSU2, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 5:4043% → 50%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
43.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
43.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 10 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
44.4%
Jake Luton sacked by Carter Coughlin for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+7
43.7%
Ryan Nall run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+9
44.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 9 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
44.7%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+8
44.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 8 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
46.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
46.5%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
45.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for no gain to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+10
45.5%
Timmy Hernandez pass complete to Tuli Wily-Matagi for 10 yds to the Minn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
46.6%
Jake Luton run for 9 yds to the Minn 8Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+6
46.6%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the Minn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-14
46.8%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the Minn 1 OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
49.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 16 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
48.4%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-9
48.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Minn 17 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Bright UgwoegbuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0650% → 60%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
50.2%
Luton, Jake pass incomplete to Togiai, Noah, PENALTY MINN pass interference (Huff, Jacob) 15 yards to the MINN2, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.8%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 5:4644% → 53%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
56.0%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+4
55.4%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+22
55.1%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 22 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
53.2%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 7 yds Demetrius Douglas fumbled, forced by Jalen Moore, recovered by Minn Shannon BrooksSimilar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+17
53.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 17 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
52.5%
Rodney Smith run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
52.5%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 11
OPP 14
-2
52.7%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 13
OPP 16
-15
50.5%
Rhoda, Conor pass complete to Johnson, Tyler for 16 yards to the OSU0, clock 02:51, PENALTY MINN personal foul (Smith, Rodney) 15 yards to the OSU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 28
OPP 31
0
51.4%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Shannon BrooksSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 28
OPP 31
+49
47.3%
Emmit Carpenter 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:0048% → 49%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
48.0%
Jake Luton run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
48.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+15
50.7%
Luton, Jake pass incomplete to Villamin, J., PENALTY MINN pass interference (Thomas, Kiondre) 15 yards to the MINN45, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
51.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
51.0%
Luton, Jake pass incomplete to Togiai, Noah, PENALTY OSU holding (Brandel, Blake) 10 yards to the OSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+10
48.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 10 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
49.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
48.5%
Nick Porebski punt for 25 yds, downed at the Minn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:1754% → 55%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.2%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 20Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
45.4%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
47.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
46.8%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
45.7%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
44.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 35 yds, downed at the Minn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
41.6%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 5
50
+2
41.2%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+15
41.7%
Rhoda, Conor pass incomplete to Johnson, Tyler, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Irvine, Jay) 15 yards to the OSU33, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
40.9%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+2
40.9%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-10
41.7%
Rhoda, Conor pass complete to Douglas, D for 11 yards to the OSU19, PENALTY MINN holding (Greene, Donnell) 10 yards to the OSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 17
OPP 40
-7
43.0%
Conor Rhoda run for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 49 Conor Rhoda fumbled, recovered by MinnSimilar
Q3 14:09
4TH & 28
OWN 49
0
45.2%
Ryan Santoso punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0044% → 45%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
44.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+2
44.5%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 14 Ryan Nall fumbled, forced by Thomas Barber, recovered by Minn Jonathan CelestinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 1:0762% → 77%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
38.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+4
38.2%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.4%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
30.2%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
29.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for no gain to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 15
OWN 21
-2
28.6%
Jake Luton sacked by Kamal Martin for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 17
OWN 19
+1
28.6%
Nick Porebski punt for 43 yds , Antonio Shenault returns for 1 yd to the Minn 20 MINNESOTA Penalty, illegal block (Melvin Holland Jr.) to the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 5:1677% → 97%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
23.4%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 19 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
21.8%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+6
21.6%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
21.6%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+1
21.6%
Demetrius Douglas run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+15
21.9%
Rhoda, Conor pass incomplete to Van Dyne, Harry, PENALTY OSU personal foul (Moore, Jalen) 15 yards to the OSU22, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
21.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+13
21.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
21.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:277% → 6%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
6.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 14 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
6.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
6.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
7.1%
Jake Luton run for no gain to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
5.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 25 yds, downed at the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 9:2496% → 100%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
4.3%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
4.4%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+21
4.5%
Conor Rhoda run for 6 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (David Morris) to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
4.0%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
2.9%
Conor Rhoda run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
2.8%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
2.8%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+2
2.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+17
2.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 17 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
2.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+3
2.7%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+7
2.8%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
2.7%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
2.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for no gain to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 37 yds, downed at the Minn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
0.2%
Kobe McCrary run for 2 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+64
0.1%
Demry Croft run for 64 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
Trevorris Johnson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
0.1%
Trevorris Johnson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
0.1%
Trevorris Johnson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Nick Porebski punt for 55 yds, downed at the Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:34
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
-17.7
TD · Q3 8:45
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
-14.9
TD · Q2 8:33
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com