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NEB

Nebraska 35 at Oregon 42

ORE
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:31 · Caleb Lightbourn punt for 31 yds, downed at the Oregn 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior+29.4Home team on offense+1.2Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:26: Tre Bryant run for 5 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +4.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:10: Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +4.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:40: Kani Benoit run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +8.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:52: Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 28 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +8.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:47: Mikale Wilbon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +12.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NEB made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:31NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56ORE 4th & 3 at NEB 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:26ORE 4th & 9 at NEB 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:14NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:10NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:39NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00NEB 4th & 10 at ORE 40, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    2.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:50ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:56NEB 4th & 5 at ORE 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:56NEB 4th & 19 at ORE 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:13ORE 4th & 3 at NEB 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−1.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:54ORE 4th & 6 at NEB 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−4.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:54NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:49ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:01NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:25ORE 4th & 14 at ORE 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:42ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:31ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:03NEB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:00ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:26NEB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:10ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:40ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:39ORE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 12:50NEB Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 8:52NEB Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:47NEB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1881% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
81.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 13 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+28
81.0%
Royce Freeman run for 28 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
81.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
81.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+32
81.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 32 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
80.9%
Tanner Lee pass intercepted Tyree Robinson return for 35 yds to the Neb 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5981% → 82%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
81.1%
Justin Herbert run for 9 yds to the Neb 11Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+2
81.1%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Neb 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
81.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for no gain to the Neb 9Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
81.1%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Neb 8Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
81.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 8 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
81.7%
Tre Bryant run for 5 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-2
81.7%
Tre Bryant run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 21Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
81.8%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Arrion SpringsSimilar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
81.8%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 31 yds, downed at the Oregn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
82.3%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+3
82.2%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
82.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell, broken up by Luke GiffordSimilar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+9
82.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 9 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
82.1%
Adam Stack punt for 40 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 5:2618% → 20%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
82.2%
Tre Bryant run for 5 yds to the Neb 10Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+4
82.2%
Mikale Wilbon run for 4 yds to the Neb 14Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+2
82.2%
Luke McNitt run for 2 yds to the Neb 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
82.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 9 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+15
82.1%
Tre Bryant rush for loss of 1 yard to the NEB24 (Hollins, Justin), PENALTY ORE face mask 15 yards to the NEB40, 1ST DOWN NEB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.0%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+23
82.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to JD Spielman for 23 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
81.9%
Tre Bryant run for 13 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
81.6%
Tre Bryant run for 3 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-2
81.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+23
79.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 23 yds for a TD OREGON Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0381% → 85%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.7%
Charles Nelson run for 1 yd to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
80.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 6 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+42
80.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 42 yds to the Neb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
81.4%
Herbert, Justin pass complete to Freeman, Royce for 18 yards to the NEB8 (Mohamed Barry;Aaron Williams), PENALTY ORE holding 10 yards to the NEB36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+3
81.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 3 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 17
OPP 33
+16
81.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 16 yds to the Neb 17Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+6
81.2%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Neb 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
81.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 9 yds to the Neb 2Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
85.1%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3417% → 22%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
83.5%
Tre Bryant run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+10
82.9%
Tre Bryant run for 10 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+35
82.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyler Hoppes for 35 yds to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.1%
Tre Bryant run for 5 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+22
80.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Cam McCormick for 22 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
81.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 8 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+4
81.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
81.2%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
81.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Neb 43Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
80.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles Nelson, broken up by Eric Lee Jr.Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
79.9%
Adam Stack punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
79.7%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Tyler Hoppes, broken up by Kaulana ApeluSimilar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
79.9%
Tre Bryant run for 2 yds to the Neb 22Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
80.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+5
80.7%
OREGON Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Neb 27Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
80.5%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Charles Nelson at the Oregn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:0080% → 86%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
80.2%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+51
80.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 51 yds to the Neb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
81.3%
Justin Herbert run for 1 yd to the Neb 19Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-15
81.3%
OREGON Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Neb 34Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 17
OPP 27
+21
80.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 21 yds to the Neb 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 24
OPP 34
+7
80.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 7 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q2 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
81.3%
Justin Herbert run for 1 yd to the Neb 5Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
81.3%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Neb 1Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.8%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.0%
Tre Bryant run for no gain to the Neb 25Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.1%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 4 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
85.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 5 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
85.1%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 29Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
85.4%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 42 yds , Charles Nelson returns for no gain to the Oregn 30 Charles Nelson fumbled, recovered by Oregn Charles NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:5786% → 95%
Q2 4:37
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+8
86.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 8 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+32
86.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 32 yds to the Neb 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
86.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 6 yds to the Neb 18Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+10
86.7%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the Neb 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
86.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 3 yds to the Neb 5Similar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
85.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 6 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.7%
Kani Benoit run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14INT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:487% → 7%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
93.4%
Tanner Lee sacked by Troy Dye for a loss of 10 yards to the Neb 15Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+5
93.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 5 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
93.3%
Tanner Lee pass intercepted Thomas Graham Jr. return for no gain to the Neb 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:0895% → 99%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
95.4%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 39Similar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+2
95.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 2 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+5
95.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 5 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+15
95.1%
Herbert, Justin pass intercepted by Lamar Jackson at the NEB5, Lamar Jackson return to the NEB5, PENALTY NEB pass interference 15 yards to the NEB17, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
98.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 17 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.9%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Tre Bryant, broken up by Jonah MoiSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
97.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyler Hoppes for 2 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+5
97.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 5 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
97.7%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 42 yds, downed at the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:102% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.0%
Tre Bryant run for 1 yd to the Neb 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+34
98.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 34 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.6%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
97.6%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
97.7%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Arrion SpringsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+22
97.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 22 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
93.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 18 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.7%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
95.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 7 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
95.7%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
95.4%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+24
95.3%
Adam Stack punt for 39 yds OREGON Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Neb 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:565% → 14%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.2%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
95.2%
Tre Bryant run for 12 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
95.1%
Tre Bryant run for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+5
94.6%
Tre Bryant run for 5 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
86.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 28 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0088% → 89%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
88.1%
Royce Freeman run for 12 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
88.2%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+27
88.7%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Aaron Williams return for 27 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
85.7%
Tre Bryant run for 4 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
85.4%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Tyler Hoppes, broken up by Jalen JelksSimilar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+1
86.0%
Tre Bryant run for 1 yd to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+6
86.4%
Tanner Lee pass complete to JD Spielman for 6 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
85.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 15
OPP 38
0
86.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Nick PickettSimilar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+3
86.5%
Tre Bryant run for 3 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 12
OPP 35
-7
86.6%
Tanner Lee sacked by Jonah Moi for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
88.1%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 37 yds, downed at the Oregn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 64 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
89.9%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+11
89.8%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
90.3%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
90.4%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-10
90.4%
Benoit, Kani rush for 7 yards to the ORE41 (Dedrick Young II;Marquel Dismuke), PENALTY ORE holding 10 yards to the ORE24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+38
90.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 38 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
91.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 6 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+1
91.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Kani Benoit for 1 yd to the Neb 31Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
90.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
90.2%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:2411% → 10%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
89.3%
Tre Bryant run for 3 yds to the Neb 35Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+9
89.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 9 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
88.9%
Tre Bryant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+5
90.4%
Tre Bryant run for 5 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+28
90.1%
Tanner Lee pass intercepted Thomas Graham Jr. return for 28 yds to the Neb 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2995% → 94%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
94.5%
Justin Herbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 31 Justin Herbert fumbled, recovered by Oregn Justin Herbert , return for 1 yd to the Neb 31Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
94.5%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
94.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
94.2%
Aidan Schneider 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
91.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 5 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+6
90.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 6 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
90.6%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Tyler HoppesSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
90.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Mikale Wilbon for 4 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
90.7%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Arrion SpringsSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
91.1%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Charles Nelson at the Oregn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
95.1%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+2
95.1%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+20
95.1%
Justin Herbert run for 20 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
95.7%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 40Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-2
95.6%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+5
95.4%
Charles Nelson run for 5 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
95.1%
Adam Stack punt for 27 yds, downed at the Neb 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.1%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Tyler Hoppes, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
93.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 15 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
92.7%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
92.6%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
92.9%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Connor KetterSimilar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
93.8%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 41 yds , Charles Nelson returns for no gain to the Oregn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 28FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
96.4%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+5
96.4%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 22 Royce Freeman fumbled, forced by Antonio Reed, recovered by Neb Aaron WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 29TD
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:098% → 20%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
92.4%
Mikale Wilbon run for 2 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
92.4%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+8
93.2%
OREGON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (8 Yards) to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
93.0%
Tanner Lee sacked by Justin Hollins for 0 yards to the Oregn 16 Tanner Lee fumbled, recovered by Neb Nick Gates , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
92.4%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 1 yd to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
92.4%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to JD Spielman, PENALTY ORE pass interference 5 yards to the ORE2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.6%
Mikale Wilbon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 30PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 0:2293% → 94%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.7%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
93.1%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-9
94.6%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 21Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
93.6%
Adam Stack punt for 36 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 31INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
91.5%
Tanner Lee pass intercepted Ugochukwu Amadi return for 21 yds to the Neb 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
95.9%
Royce Freeman run for 12 yds to the Neb 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
96.0%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Neb 16Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-1
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:47
Mikale Wilbon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q2 2:40
Kani Benoit run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q3 8:52
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 28 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
-8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com