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TXST

Texas State 3 at Colorado 37

COLO
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:46 · Willie Jones III run for no gain to the TexSt 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Pregame prior+13.1Home team on offense+35.8Score differential+30.1Garbage-time factor+10.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.3Blowout margin+16.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:43: Laviska Shenault Jr. 55 Yd Punt Return (James Stefanou Kick) — COLO win probability +0.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:33: Steven Montez run for 2 yds for a TD TEXAS STATE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +0.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:39: James Sherman 32 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +1.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:26: Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:39: Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 11 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 7 of 11TXST made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 12:52TXST 4th & 5 at COLO 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:52COLO 4th & 16 at TXST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:14TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:15COLO 4th & 15 at TXST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:35TXST 4th & 7 at COLO 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:22COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:43TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 20 at TXST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:33TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:47COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:41TXST 4th & 9 at COLO 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:28COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:38TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:53COLO 4th & 5 at TXST 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:39TXST 4th & 12 at COLO 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:39COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:35COLO 4th & 1 at TXST 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.3%−0.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−2.8
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:26TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:12COLO 4th & 5 at TXST 23, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:46COLO 4th & 4 at TXST 18, up 31
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 8:46TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 49, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 6:03COLO 4th & 6 at TXST 27, up 34
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  24. Q4 2:43TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 26, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:43COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:33COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:26COLO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:39COLO Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1MISSED FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:082% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
98.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 55 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
98.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
98.3%
Damian Williams run for no gain to the Colo 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
98.3%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by Isaiah OliverSimilar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
98.1%
James Sherman 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
98.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
98.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
98.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 15 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
98.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+16
98.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 16 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
98.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 9 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+2
98.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
98.1%
Michael Adkins II run for 2 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
98.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-8
98.1%
Steven Montez sacked by Gabe Loyd for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
98.1%
Alex Kinney punt for 34 yds, downed at the TexSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
97.7%
Damian Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 5
OWN 10
0
97.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
97.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Mason Hays, broken up by Jacob CallierSimilar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+2
97.7%
TEAM punt , Isaiah Oliver returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
97.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
97.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-7
97.6%
Steven Montez sacked by Frankie Griffin for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
97.5%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:113% → 3%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
97.2%
Thurman Morbley run for 21 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
97.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+11
97.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Mason Hays for 11 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
97.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
97.2%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
96.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
96.9%
Marcus Ripley punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Oliver at the Colo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
96.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 8 yds to the Colo 18Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+1
96.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 19Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+5
96.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
96.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
96.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+6
96.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
96.8%
Alex Kinney punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:434% → 3%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
96.4%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
96.4%
Tyler Watts run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+55
97.0%
Laviska Shenault Jr. 55 Yd Punt Return (James Stefanou Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:433% → 3%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
96.7%
Willie Jones III run for 6 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
96.7%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+1
96.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-8
96.8%
Willie Jones III sacked by Leo Jackson III for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 26
0
96.9%
Marcus Ripley punt for 71 yds, downed at the Colo 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9TD
9 plays · 96 yds · 2:4496% → 97%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
96.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 8Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+5
96.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 13Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+2
96.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+44
96.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 44 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
96.6%
K.D. Nixon run for 5 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+1
96.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+28
96.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 28 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
96.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.4%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds for a TD TEXAS STATE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
97.1%
Damian Williams sacked by Leo Jackson III for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+9
97.1%
Damian Williams run for 9 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
97.1%
Marcus Ripley punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
97.0%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 10Similar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+1
97.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 11Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 14
OWN 11
0
97.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Shay Fields, broken up by Andrew AnekeSimilar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+4
96.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
96.8%
Alex Kinney punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:493% → 3%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
96.8%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+12
96.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for 12 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
96.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 9 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+1
96.5%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
96.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+2
96.3%
Damian Williams run for 2 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-2
96.3%
Damian Williams sacked by Derek McCartney for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
96.6%
Marcus Ripley punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
96.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 6 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
96.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 8 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
96.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 4 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
97.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+9
96.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 56 yds , Hutch White returns for 9 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:464% → 3%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
96.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 1 yd to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-5
96.5%
Damian Williams sacked by Timothy Coleman for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+2
96.5%
Damian Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 12
OWN 13
+5
96.7%
Ripley,Marcus punt 50 yards to the COLO37, Oliver, Isaiah return to the TXST37 (Eastling,J.), PENALTY COLO offside defense 5 yards to the TXST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 7
OWN 18
+3
96.7%
Marcus Ripley punt for 49 yds , Isaiah Oliver returns for 3 yds to the Colo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
97.0%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16FG
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:0797% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
96.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 38 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
96.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 15 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
96.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
96.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 4 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+1
96.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 1 yd to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
96.8%
James Stefanou 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:143% → 4%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+45
97.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 45 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
96.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 17 yds to the Colo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
96.4%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
96.4%
Damian Williams run for no gain to the Colo 11 TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 8
OPP 11
-4
96.6%
Damian Williams sacked by Leo Jackson III for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 15Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
95.6%
James Sherman 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. Nixon, broken up by Bryan London IISimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
96.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
95.5%
Thurman Morbley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
95.5%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+10
95.8%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 10 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
95.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by Rick GamboaSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+41
95.5%
Damian Williams pass intercepted Isaiah Oliver return for 41 yds to the COLORADO 17 TEXAS STATE Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20TD
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:2796% → 99%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
96.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
96.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
96.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
96.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
96.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for no gain to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-5
96.8%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Jase Franke) to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+22
96.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 22 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.6%
Anthony Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
98.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
98.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
98.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
98.6%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Thurman Morbley, broken up by Evan WorthingtonSimilar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 3
OWN 43
-5
98.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Marcus Ripley punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Oliver at the Colo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 1:4499% → 100%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
99.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 16 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+10
99.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 10 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+31
99.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 31 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
99.1%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (Quinn Tiggs) to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 11 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
99.9%
COLORADO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Bryce Bobo) to the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:280% → 0%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+24
99.9%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 24 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
99.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-4
99.9%
N/A run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Willie Jones III run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
Marcus Ripley punt for 37 yds , Isaiah Oliver returns for 7 yds to the Colo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 15 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyreSimilar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
99.9%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Gerrad Kough) to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+15
99.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 15 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+13
99.9%
Michael Adkins II run for 13 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.9%
Steven Montez run for 6 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-1
99.9%
Michael Adkins II run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Juwann WinfreeSimilar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
99.9%
James Stefanou 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Jaylin Nelson run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25 Jaylin Nelson fumbled, forced by Akil Jones, recovered by Colo Dante WigleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
99.9%
Michael Adkins II run for 2 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyreSimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+4
99.9%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Michael Adkins II for 4 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
99.9%
James Stefanou 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Anthony Smith run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
99.9%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Dennis Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
100.0%
Willie Jones III sacked by Daniel Talley for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+2
100.0%
Anthony Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+12
100.0%
Willie Jones III run for 12 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Willie Jones III run for no gain to the TexSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Beau Bisharat run for no gain to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+18
100.0%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 18 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
100.0%
Beau Bisharat run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 11
OPP 32
-8
100.0%
N/A run for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+13
100.0%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 13 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+5
100.0%
Sam Noyer pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 5 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
100.0%
Anthony Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Anthony Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+5
100.0%
Willie Jones III run for 5 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+4
100.0%
Marcus Ripley punt for 49 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
100.0%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:26
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)
+2.2
FG · Q3 9:39
James Sherman 32 yd FG GOOD
-1
TD · Q2 9:33
Steven Montez run for 2 yds for a TD TEXAS STATE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (James Stefanou KICK)
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com