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STAN

Stanford 24 at USC 42

USC
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:58 · Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton Irwin, broken up by Uchenna Nwosu
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Home team on offense+31.7Pregame prior+0.6Garbage-time factor+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+17.9Score differential+11.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:02: Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 1 yd for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +6.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:42: Deontay Burnett 22 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +5.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:48: Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 25 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +14.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:42: Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +6.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:41: Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 3 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +7.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:38STAN 4th & 5 at USC 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    38.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 7:53STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:43STAN 4th & 8 at USC 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−5.5
    average punt
  4. Q3 9:11STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  5. Q3 4:50USC 4th & 3 at USC 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 1:03STAN 4th & 15 at STAN 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  7. Q4 2:58STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 43, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:01USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:49STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:31USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:02STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:42USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:48USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:42USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:41STAN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:15USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:0738% → 38%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
61.8%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 15Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+5
61.8%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+9
61.9%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 9 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
61.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Scooter Harrington for no gain to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+20
61.7%
Bryce Love run for 20 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
61.4%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by Uchenna NwosuSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
61.5%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
61.4%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
61.6%
Jake Bailey punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:3262% → 67%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
61.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
61.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
61.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
62.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
62.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 5 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
62.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
62.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+14
62.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 14 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
62.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 16 yds to the Stanf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
63.0%
Stephen Carr run for 7 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+8
63.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 8 yds to the Stanf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
63.1%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Stanf 4Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
66.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
61.5%
Bryce Love run for 75 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
61.3%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1362% → 68%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
61.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 4 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+19
61.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 19 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
62.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 9 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+9
63.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 9 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
63.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+30
63.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 30 yds to the Stanf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
63.9%
Deontay Burnett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 1Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.0%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the Stanf 1Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:1235% → 42%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
65.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 20 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
64.7%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+9
64.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Connor Wedington for 9 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
64.8%
Bryce Love run for 21 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.3%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 1 yd for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1062% → 70%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
62.1%
Stephen Carr run for 52 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
64.5%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Stanf 22Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+22
69.9%
Deontay Burnett 22 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:3432% → 30%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
67.9%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 23Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
68.1%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+12
68.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 12 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
67.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
67.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-3
67.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 39Similar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
70.1%
Jake Bailey punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:4770% → 71%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+14
70.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 14 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
70.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 10 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
70.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
70.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
70.6%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Justin Reid return for no gain to the Stanf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:0330% → 32%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
70.5%
Bryce Love run for 6 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
69.7%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton Irwin, broken up by Rasheem GreenSimilar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+33
68.9%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Kaden Smith for 18 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Roughing Passer (Rasheem Green) to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
67.7%
Chryst, Keller pass complete to Wedington, Connor for 20 yards to the USC1, PENALTY STANFORD illegal formation 5 yards to the USC26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 15
OPP 26
0
69.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the USC 26Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+7
70.9%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Kaden Smith for 7 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
70.3%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton Irwin, broken up by Uchenna NwosuSimilar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
67.8%
Jet Toner 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4968% → 81%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
67.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 10 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
67.7%
Darnold, Sam pass complete to Burnett, Deontay for 16 yards to the STANFORD48, PENALTY USC holding (Edoga, Chuma) 10 yards to the USC26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+49
66.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 49 yds to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
80.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 25 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:3320% → 21%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
79.8%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
79.4%
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 5 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
78.9%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12INT
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:1278% → 81%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
77.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
78.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
79.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
79.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 2 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+12
78.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 12 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
80.0%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+32
80.5%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Alijah Holder return for 32 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:1922% → 20%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
77.7%
Keller Chryst sacked by Josh Fatu for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 25Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+2
78.8%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 15
OWN 27
-5
79.7%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 22Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 20
OWN 22
+15
79.8%
USC Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Porter Gustin) to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
78.1%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
78.1%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
78.9%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
80.4%
Jake Bailey punt for 59 yds, downed at the USC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:1680% → 82%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
80.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+1
80.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 11Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+4
79.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
81.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 9 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+3
81.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
81.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 8 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-5
82.4%
USC Penalty, False Start (Deontay Burnett) to the USC 30Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
82.7%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
82.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+9
82.1%
Reid Budrovich punt for 45 yds , Jay Tyler returns for 9 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:4019% → 14%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
81.4%
Bryce Love run for 14 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
80.5%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 45Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-10
81.9%
Chryst, Keller pass incomplete to Wedington, Connor, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Bright, David) 10 yards to the STANFORD35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 19
OWN 35
+1
84.1%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Connor Wedington for 1 yd to the Stanf 36Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 18
OWN 36
+15
85.0%
Chryst, Keller pass incomplete to Arcega-Whiteside, JJ, PENALTY USC pass interference (Harris, Ajene) 15 yards to the USC49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
81.1%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
81.7%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-5
81.9%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 10
OPP 49
-5
84.5%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 46Similar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
85.8%
Jake Bailey punt for 44 yds, downed at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 6:1685% → 97%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
85.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+18
86.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 18 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
87.0%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the USC 36 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Viane Talamaivao) to the USC 26Similar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+8
86.5%
Stephen Carr run for 8 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+6
87.0%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
87.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
88.2%
Sam Darnold sacked by Kevin Palma for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 42Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+5
88.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+35
87.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 35 yds to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
90.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+5
90.4%
Sam Darnold run for 5 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
97.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:474% → 12%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
95.9%
Keller Chryst run for 8 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+19
95.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Connor Wedington for 19 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
95.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 6 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+39
95.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 39 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
94.0%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 7Similar
Q4 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.1%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
95.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.0%
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 3 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:1592% → 100%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+28
94.1%
Stephen Carr run for 28 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
95.1%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+12
95.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 12 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
95.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+5
96.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+23
99.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 23 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.3%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton Irwin, broken up by Iman MarshallSimilar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
99.3%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 19Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
99.3%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+23
99.4%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 23 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
99.3%
Keller Chryst sacked by Uchenna Nwosu for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 37 STANFORD Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+6
99.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton Irwin, broken up by Uchenna NwosuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
99.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+15
99.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 15 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 21Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:48
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 25 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+14
TD · Q4 6:41
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 3 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)
-7.1
TD · Q4 9:42
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com