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SDSU

San Diego State 30 at Arizona State 20

ASU
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-3.9ASU 46.4%John Baron II 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 7 · Q2 7:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:39 · John Baron II 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Home team on offense−6.8Pregame prior+6.3Score differential−4.0Garbage-time factor−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +4.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:45: Brandon Ruiz kickoff for 64 yds , Rashaad Penny return for 99 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:54: Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +11.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:06: John Baron II 27 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:52: Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 33 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) ARIZONA ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declined — SDSU win probability +22.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 16 at SDSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:26ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:04ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:28SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:45ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:39SDSU 4th & 12 at ASU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:24SDSU 4th & 14 at ASU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:13ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−3.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:06SDSU 4th & 1 at ASU 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.8
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:02SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−2.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:05ASU 4th & 7 at SDSU 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    45.8%−1.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:52ASU 4th & 25 at ASU 10, down 13
    Numbers favored punt by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%−2.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:45SDSU 4th & 15 at ASU 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−3.8
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−11.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:48SDSU 4th & 4 at ASU 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−4.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:09ASU 4th & 9 at SDSU 37, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%
    40% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:04SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:45SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:54ASU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:52SDSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:34ASU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
60.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
60.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 6 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
60.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-1
60.2%
Christian Chapman sacked by Alani Latu for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-7
60.2%
Christian Chapman sacked by Koron Crump for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 31
+3
60.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 34 yds , Chase Lucas returns for 3 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
60.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
60.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+2
60.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
60.3%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 53 yds, downed at the SDSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 99 yds · 1:3040% → 42%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
60.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 2Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
60.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+95
57.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 95 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
57.5%
Manny Wilkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 23 ARIZONA ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
57.5%
[SG], Wilkins, Manny pass complete to Harvey, Jalen for no gain to the ASU23 (LAKALAKA, R.), PENALTY SDSU offside (ISMAEL, Keith) 5 yards to the ASU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
57.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
57.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 11 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
57.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 1 yd to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+7
57.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 7 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
58.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+27
57.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 43 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 27 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
55.8%
Christian Chapman run for 2 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
55.5%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
55.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Quest TruxtonSimilar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
56.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Chase Lucas at the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:5656% → 62%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
55.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
55.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+29
55.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 29 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
56.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 7
50
0
57.1%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 7
50
+7
56.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+42
57.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 42 yds to the SDSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.6%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
53.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
53.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
53.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
52.7%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FG
15 plays · 43 yds · 5:4949% → 54%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
51.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-15
51.0%
CHAPMAN, C. pass complete to TREVILLION, F. for 53 yards to the ASU0, clock 12:42, PENALTY SDSU pass interference (TREVILLION, F.) 15 yards to the SDSU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 23
OWN 32
+15
52.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 15 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+10
51.4%
Christian Chapman run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
50.7%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Quest TruxtonSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+23
50.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 23 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
50.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+5
50.5%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
49.3%
WASHINGTON, J. rush for 9 yards to the ASU0, clock 09:48, PENALTY SDSU holding (ROSALES, A.) 10 yards to the ASU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 19
OPP 0
0
49.4%
PENALTY SDSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY ASU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
-14
49.4%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 18 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 33
+8
49.8%
Juwan Washington run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 25
+13
50.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
46.4%
John Baron II 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:3946% → 60%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+35
46.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 35 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
48.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+5
48.5%
[NHSG], Wilkins, Manny pass complete to Harry, N'Keal for 4 yards to the SDSU37 (KELLY, Kameron), PENALTY SDSU offside (PHILLIPS, S.) 5 yards to the SDSU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+19
48.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 19 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
49.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
49.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+5
48.5%
Nick Ralston run for 5 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 3:3046% → 47%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
53.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 7 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
52.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
52.6%
Christian Chapman run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
52.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
52.2%
Christian Chapman sacked by Koron Crump for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 15
OPP 46
-5
53.2%
[SG], PENALTY SDSU false start (ROEMER, Tyler) 5 yards to the SDSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 20
OWN 49
+6
53.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 6 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 14
OPP 45
0
51.1%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
52.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
51.6%
Nick Ralston run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 11
0
51.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 5
OWN 11
0
50.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 5
OWN 11
-5
50.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 10
OWN 6
0
49.7%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2454% → 57%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
46.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Quest TruxtonSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
46.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 1 yd to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+8
48.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 8 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+27
43.5%
John Baron II 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
47.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
47.8%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Noble Hall for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 16 Manny Wilkins fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+16
47.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 16 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
47.5%
[NHSG], Ralston, Nick rush for 2 yards to the ASU34 (CHEATUM, Myles), PENALTY SDSU offside (PHILLIPS, S.) 5 yards to the ASU37, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
48.6%
N'Keal Harry sacked by Troy Cassidy for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
47.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Nick RalstonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+5
46.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 5 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+5
47.0%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 43 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 5 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
44.2%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 12
OWN 20
0
44.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Rashaad Penny, broken up by Alani LatuSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 12
OWN 20
0
45.5%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
46.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 37 yds, downed at the ArzSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
48.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
47.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 9 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
49.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
49.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
49.5%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+5
46.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Nick Ralston for 5 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
46.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 6:2862% → 84%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
38.1%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
38.7%
Juwan Washington run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
37.4%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
37.5%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+8
38.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
37.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-1
36.8%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+7
37.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 7 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
36.8%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-8
36.8%
Christian Chapman sacked by Tashon Smallwood and Alani Latu for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 16
OPP 28
-5
38.9%
[SG], PENALTY SDSU delay of game (CHAPMAN, C.) 5 yards to the ASU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 21
OPP 33
+33
16.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 33 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) ARIZONA ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
22.3%
Manny Wilkins run for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 32 Manny Wilkins fumbled, forced by Noble Hall, recovered by ArzSt Manny Wilkins , return for 5 yds to the ArzSt 32 Manny Wilkins fumbled, forced by Myles Cheatum, recovered by SDSt Tariq ThompsonSimilar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 25
OWN 10
+5
21.4%
- 29 run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:1085% → 93%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
14.7%
Juwan Washington run for 22 yds to the ArzSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
14.4%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
14.2%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
13.8%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
15.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
11.4%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
7.3%
John Baron II 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1116% → 16%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 5 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
17.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Nick Ralston for 3 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
17.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
17.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Nick Ralston for 7 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+14
18.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 14 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
19.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+8
19.2%
Nick Ralston run for 8 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+6
20.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 6 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-15
20.9%
[SG], Wilkins, Manny rush for 5 yards to the SDSU21 (HENDERSON, Jay), PENALTY ASU personal foul (McCollum, A.J.) 15 yards to the SDSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 25
OPP 41
-4
18.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Chibu Onyeukwu for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 29
OPP 45
-13
18.5%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Ronley Lakalaka for a loss of 13 yards to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 42
OWN 42
+5
17.0%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Harry, N'Keal, PENALTY SDSU offside (MOORE, Damon) 5 yards to the ASU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 37
OWN 47
+53
16.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 53 yds for a TD SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 45 yds · 5:4687% → 95%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
13.3%
PENNY, Rashaad rush for 7 yards to the SDSU32 (Williams, Kobe), PENALTY SDSU holding (ROSALES, A.) 10 yards to the SDSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-1
13.8%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+7
13.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 7 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+27
14.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 27 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
12.2%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+15
11.8%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (DJ Calhoun) to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
11.6%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-9
11.3%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 30 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 16
OPP 40
-2
11.9%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 18
OPP 42
+14
12.4%
Christian Chapman run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 4
OPP 28
-2
5.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:346% → 4%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
6.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
50
+6
7.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
7.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 6 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
7.5%
[NHSG], Wilkins, Manny rush for 7 yards to the SDSU31 (LAKALAKA, R.), PENALTY ASU holding (Jones, Sam) 10 yards to the SDSU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 20
OPP 48
-7
7.0%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Noble Hall and Chibu Onyeukwu for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 27
OWN 45
+9
3.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 9 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 18
OPP 46
+9
3.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 9 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
3.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frank Darby, broken up by Parker BaldwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
3.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:52
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 33 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) ARIZONA ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declined
-22.5
TD · Q2 4:54
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q2 14:45
Brandon Ruiz kickoff for 64 yds , Rashaad Penny return for 99 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com