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HOU

Houston 19 at Arizona 16

ARIZ
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDSAFETYFGFGEnd of GameFG+1.2ARIZ 53.3%Josh Pollack 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 3 · Q1 1:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:08 · Josh Pollack 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense+0.9Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1One-score game−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:00: Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 5 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +8.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:22: Zach Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +12.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:45: Dillon Birden run for 3 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +12.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:48: Josh Pollack 21 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +8.7 pts (now 40%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:32: Josh Pollack 42 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +4.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 9HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:04HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:33HOU 4th & 8 at ARIZ 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:58ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:33HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:08ARIZ 4th & 3 at HOU 28, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.6%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:08HOU 4th & 7 at ARIZ 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:26ARIZ 4th & 8 at HOU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:00HOU 4th & 5 at ARIZ 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:10HOU 4th & 18 at HOU 41, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−4.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:38ARIZ 4th & 6 at HOU 30, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:48ARIZ 4th & 4 at HOU 4, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−13.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:40HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 45, up 6
    Close callPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:45ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:32ARIZ 4th & 6 at HOU 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−11.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:50HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:59HOU 4th & 2 at ARIZ 46, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.3 ptsPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−7.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%−5.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:16ARIZ 4th & 13 at ARIZ 17, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 5:00HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:22ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:45HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3649% → 49%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.8%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
50.8%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
50.9%
Kyle Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
51.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
51.2%
Dane Roy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4851% → 51%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
51.2%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 32Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+8
51.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 8 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
51.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
51.1%
Jake Glatting punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:1749% → 49%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
51.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 19 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
50.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+33
50.9%
Dillon Birden run for 33 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
50.7%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+7
50.7%
Kyle Allen run for 7 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.7%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Ariz 1Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
50.7%
Kyle Allen run for no gain to the Ariz 1, Kyle Allen fumbled, forced by Dane Cruikshank, recovered by Houst Linell Bonner at the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
51.0%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q1 9:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
51.0%
Caden Novikoff 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2251% → 51%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
50.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 6 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
51.1%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
50.8%
Jake Glatting punt for 52 yds, downed at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:1749% → 49%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+22
51.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 22 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
50.5%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Houst 41 HOUSTON Penalty, Assisting the Runner (Na'Ty Rodgers) to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 11
OWN 36
0
50.8%
Kyle Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
51.0%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+4
51.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
51.5%
Dane Roy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:0751% → 53%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
50.7%
Zach Green run for 4 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
50.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+16
50.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 16 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
51.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
51.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
52.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 1 yd to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
52.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+13
51.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 13 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
52.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
52.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Tyrell JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+5
52.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cam Denson for 5 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
53.3%
Josh Pollack 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7MISSED FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 3:4948% → 48%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
51.9%
Dillon Birden run for 8 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
51.1%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
51.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 7 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+4
50.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
50.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Romello Brooker for 12 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
50.3%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
50.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+15
50.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
49.7%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Ellis Jefferson, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Jefferson, Ellis) 15 yards to the ARIZONA38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 25
OPP 38
-1
50.8%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 26
OPP 39
0
51.1%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 26
OPP 39
+19
51.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 19 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
51.6%
Caden Novikoff 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8MISSED FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:2854% → 55%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
53.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 7 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-5
54.0%
Dawkins, Brandon pass incomplete to Ellison, Tony, PENALTY ARIZONA ineligible downfield on pass (Friekh, Layth) 5 yards to the ARIZONA22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-2
53.5%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Emeke Egbule for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
52.6%
Dawkins, Brandon pass incomplete to Poindexter, Shawn, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Williams, Terrell) 15 yards to the ARIZONA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA.Similar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+50
56.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 35 yds to the ARIZONA 30 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
56.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-5
56.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Layth Friekh) to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 13
OPP 18
-2
56.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+7
54.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 7 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
54.9%
Josh Pollack 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:1648% → 61%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
52.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to John Leday for 5 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
50.6%
Dillon Birden run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+11
51.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Dillon Birden for 11 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
50.4%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+49
49.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Keith Corbin for 49 yds to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
47.7%
Duke Catalon run for 6 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+1
47.7%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Ariz 5Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
39.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 5 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3542% → 58%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.9%
Zach Green run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
41.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 4 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
42.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 27 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
44.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 17 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
45.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+15
45.5%
Dawkins, Brandon pass incomplete to Poindexter, Shawn, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Johnson, Isaiah) 15 yards to the HOUSTON4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA.Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
45.5%
Zach Green run for 3 yds to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.3%
Zach Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1054% → 66%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
46.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 21Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+7
47.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 7 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+11
47.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Dillon Birden for 11 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.5%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:3040% → 40%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
39.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:5742% → 43%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
41.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 8 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+11
42.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 11 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
43.0%
Brandon Dawkins run for 12 yds to the Houst 29 Brandon Dawkins fumbled, forced by Ed Oliver, recovered by Houst Alexander MyresSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14INT
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:3063% → 64%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
36.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+6
35.9%
Duke Catalon run for 6 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
34.7%
Duke Catalon run for 8 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Dereck Boles) to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
34.1%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
33.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to John Leday for no gain to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
33.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Dillon Birden for no gain to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+5
35.6%
Kyle Allen pass intercepted Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles return for 5 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15SF
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
34.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for a loss of 8 yards, Dawkins fumbled, recovered by Ariz Gerhard de Beer for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:2066% → 67%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
33.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to John Leday for 3 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+16
32.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for 16 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
31.7%
Allen, Kyle pass incomplete to Corbin, Keith, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Corbin, Keith) 15 yards to the HOUSTON34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 25
OWN 34
+1
33.6%
Kyle Allen run for 1 yd to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 24
OWN 35
+1
32.9%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 23
OWN 36
+5
33.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Duke Catalon for 5 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 18
OWN 41
0
33.0%
Dane Roy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17FG
16 plays · 82 yds · 6:1432% → 40%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
32.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 18 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
32.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 14 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
34.0%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
33.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 8 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+12
34.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 12 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
36.3%
Brandon Dawkins run for 6 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-2
36.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
33.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+13
31.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 13 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
35.3%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+10
35.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 10 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
33.4%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Houst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
35.0%
Zach Green run for 1 yd to the Houst 5Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
34.8%
Brandon Dawkins run for 1 yd to the Houst 4Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
30.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q3 1:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
39.6%
Josh Pollack 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:0868% → 70%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
32.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Linell Bonner) to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
32.8%
Dillon Birden run for 9 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
31.1%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
31.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 7 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
29.3%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-2
29.0%
Kyle Allen pass complete to John Leday for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+5
29.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 5 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
29.9%
Dane Roy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Shun Brown at the Ariz 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4036% → 33%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
36.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 5 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
36.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
34.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+6
33.3%
Jake Glatting punt for 47 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 6 yds to the Houst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
26.5%
Kyle Allen pass intercepted Lorenzo Burns return for no gain to the Ariz 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21FG
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:5340% → 42%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
40.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 4 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
41.0%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+10
39.3%
Khalil Tate run for 10 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
41.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (J.J. Taylor) to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+14
35.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 14 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
38.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
37.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
40.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
40.4%
Khalil Tate run for 3 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
37.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tony EllisonSimilar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
42.4%
Josh Pollack 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3166% → 65%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.6%
Dillon Birden run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
31.5%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
32.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Linell Bonner for no gain to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
32.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
34.7%
Dane Roy punt for 40 yds , Shun Brown returns for 2 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23INT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:5539% → 45%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
39.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 11 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
42.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 3 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+1
43.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+7
39.8%
Khalil Tate run for 7 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
43.0%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+9
43.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 9 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
45.3%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Garrett Davis return for no gain to the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:4274% → 81%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
25.7%
Duke Catalon run for 26 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
21.0%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+4
19.2%
Dillon Birden run for 4 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+2
18.7%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
19.5%
Dane Roy punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3834% → 28%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
34.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
30.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to J.J. Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 17Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
28.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Shawn PoindexterSimilar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+6
27.6%
Brandon Dawkins run for 6 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 2:0090% → 95%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
10.3%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+6
8.2%
Duke Catalon run for 6 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
5.4%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:45
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q2 2:22
Zach Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
+12.8
FG · Q3 1:48
Josh Pollack 21 yd FG GOOD
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com