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CAL

California 35 at North Carolina 30

UNC
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:38 · Tom Sheldon punt for 40 yds, downed at the UNC 24 CALIFORNIA Penalty, illegal procedure (5 Yards) to the Cal 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior+14.7Home team on offense+3.0Garbage-time factor+0.7Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:23: Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 54 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +20.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:02: Chazz Surratt pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 4 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +19.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:58: Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +31.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:56: Vic Enwere run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +18.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Chazz Surratt run for 1 yd for a TD — UNC win probability +13.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:00CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:25UNC 4th & 18 at UNC 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:54CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:40UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:05CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:15CAL 4th & 14 at UNC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:21UNC 4th & 10 at CAL 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:38UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:38CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 26, down 3
    Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:36UNC 4th & 13 at CAL 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−2.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−6.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 1 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.6%−4.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 1 at UNC 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.4%−4.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−4.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:41UNC 4th & 3 at CAL 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%−2.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    41.5%−6.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:56UNC 4th & 10 at CAL 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:57CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:33UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:46UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:08CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:23CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:02UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:58CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:56CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
79.3%
Brandon Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
79.3%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
79.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Jordon Brown for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
79.3%
Tom Sheldon punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
78.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 3 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
78.8%
Ross Bowers run for 3 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+8
78.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 8 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
78.7%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
78.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
78.7%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
78.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
78.4%
Brandon Harris run for 10 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.5%
Brandon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.4%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
78.3%
Brandon Harris sacked by Camryn Bynum and James Looney for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+52
78.2%
Tom Sheldon punt for 42 yds CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Cal 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
77.9%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
77.8%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
78.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Enwere for no gain to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
78.2%
Dylan Klumph punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
77.6%
Chazz Surratt run for 8 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+8
77.8%
Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
77.9%
Chazz Surratt run for 2 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
78.0%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
77.8%
Chazz Surratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
77.5%
Tom Sheldon punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 1:5323% → 27%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
77.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tre Watson for 21 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
76.7%
Tre Watson run for 12 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
76.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
76.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 5 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+11
76.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+26
76.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 26 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
72.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2474% → 77%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
73.6%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 10 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
73.7%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+52
74.4%
Michael Carter run for 47 yds to the UNC 10 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (Devante Downs) to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
74.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive offside (James Looney) to the Cal 2Similar
Q1 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.3%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2324% → 25%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
75.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
75.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tre Watson for 5 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+4
75.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 4 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
75.0%
Dylan Klumph punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
75.6%
Chazz Surratt run for 6 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
76.0%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+15
75.7%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 49 Michael Carter fumbled, forced by Devante Downs, recovered by Cal Tony Mekari CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Jr. Marlo Franklin) to the NCaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 21 yds · 4:4427% → 27%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
73.3%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-1
73.1%
Vic Enwere run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+5
73.0%
Bowers, Ross deep pass incomplete to Robertson, Deme, PENALTY NC offside (Crawford, A) 5 yards to the NC40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
72.8%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
72.8%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
72.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tre Watson for 4 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
72.7%
Vic Enwere run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-9
72.3%
Ross Bowers run for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 33 Ross Bowers fumbled, recovered by Cal Ross BowersSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 33
-2
73.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Demetris Robertson for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 35
+7
73.8%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+45
73.3%
Matt Anderson 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 2:5474% → 75%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
74.0%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+11
74.1%
Jordon Brown run for 11 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
75.1%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
75.3%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+7
74.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 7 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
75.5%
Jordon Brown run for 5 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
75.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
75.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Austin Proehl for 7 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
75.8%
Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+4
75.7%
Brandon Harris run for 4 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
75.7%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
75.7%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Thomas JacksonSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
75.1%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
74.6%
Freeman Jones 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
74.7%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+10
74.7%
Tre Watson run for 10 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
74.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 14 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
73.2%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
73.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Demetris Robertson, broken up by Myles DornSimilar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
73.9%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted Donnie Miles return for no gain to the Cal 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:5477% → 83%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
76.5%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
76.3%
Chazz Surratt run for 8 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+9
76.2%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Carl Tucker for 9 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
77.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (R.J. Prince) to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+1
75.9%
Chazz Surratt run for 1 yd to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 14
OPP 35
+15
76.0%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordon Brown for 15 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
77.0%
Chazz Surratt run for 6 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+1
77.0%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Cal 13Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+4
76.3%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Carl Tucker for 4 yds to the Cal 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
77.0%
Chazz Surratt run for no gain to the Cal 9Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
83.2%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:3318% → 27%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
82.2%
Vic Enwere run for 7 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-5
81.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-4
82.4%
Vic Enwere run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 18Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+15
83.1%
Bowers, Ross sideline pass incomplete, QB hurry by Drennon, D, PENALTY NC roughing passer (Dalton, J) 15 yards to the CAL33, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
72.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 67 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15INT
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:5173% → 77%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
73.1%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Jordon BrownSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+22
72.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Austin Proehl for 22 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
75.0%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Jordon Brown for 5 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
75.4%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 5 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
75.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Austin Proehl for 12 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+39
76.9%
Brandon Harris pass intercepted Devante Downs return for 39 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.7%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
72.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tre Watson for 2 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
72.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Demetris Robertson, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
74.0%
Dylan Klumph punt for 47 yds, downed at the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
73.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordon Brown for 5 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
74.1%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
74.2%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 12
OWN 31
-5
73.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+7
73.5%
Chazz Surratt run for 7 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+3
72.8%
Chazz Surratt run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+45
72.6%
Tom Sheldon punt for 40 yds, downed at the UNC 24 CALIFORNIA Penalty, illegal procedure (5 Yards) to the Cal 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
72.6%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-1
72.2%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 23Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+3
73.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Brandon Singleton for 3 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+17
74.3%
Dylan Klumph punt for 57 yds , Austin Proehl returns for 17 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19MISSED FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:4773% → 71%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
73.2%
Michael Carter run for 14 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
75.2%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 14 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
75.8%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
76.5%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+7
75.4%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 7 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
76.5%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
76.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (R.J. Prince) to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
75.1%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Thomas JacksonSimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+2
73.7%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordon Brown for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+45
71.2%
Freeman Jones 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:1330% → 53%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
70.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+14
70.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 14 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
68.0%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
67.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Demetris Robertson, broken up by K.J. SailsSimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+54
47.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 54 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
52.6%
Brandon Harris run for 2 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
52.5%
Brandon Harris pass intercepted Derron Brown return for 3 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
43.6%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-1
43.6%
Ross Bowers sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+73
45.9%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted Andre Smith return for 73 yds to the Cal 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:1057% → 76%
Q3 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
56.5%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q3 2:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.7%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 4 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0429% → 64%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.2%
Vic Enwere run for 8 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
68.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 8 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
68.8%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
68.6%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 1
50
0
67.2%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
50
+3
68.1%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
65.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
66.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 9 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
65.8%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+18
68.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Malik McMorris for 18 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
36.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25DOWNS
16 plays · 45 yds · 2:1746% → 46%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.3%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
46.9%
Jordon Brown run for 5 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
47.6%
Chazz Surratt run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
47.5%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-10
48.0%
Surratt, C rush up middle for 4 yards to the NC42 (Looney, James), PENALTY NC holding (Sweet, W) 10 yards to the NC28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 18
OWN 28
0
42.6%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 18
OWN 28
+21
40.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 21 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
48.9%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+11
49.6%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordon Brown for 11 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
49.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Roscoe Johnson) to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 15
OPP 42
0
47.2%
Chazz Surratt run for no gain to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 15
OPP 42
-1
46.7%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Cameron Saffle and Luc Bequette for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+13
44.6%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 13 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
45.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Jordan Cunningham, broken up by Quentin TartabullSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:1672% → 97%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
28.1%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Malik McMorris) to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 15
OWN 25
-1
29.6%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 24Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 16
OWN 24
0
30.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic EnwereSimilar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+16
31.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 16 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
25.7%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
24.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+11
25.4%
Ross Bowers run for 11 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
23.4%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+43
23.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 43 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
22.2%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
22.2%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.5%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 1:565% → 20%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
4.8%
Chazz Surratt run for 10 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
5.1%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordon Brown for 9 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
6.1%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordon Brown for 3 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
5.7%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 15 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
6.2%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordon Brown for 1 yd to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+14
6.2%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Austin Proehl for 14 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
7.8%
Chazz Surratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
7.4%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Jordan Cunningham, broken up by Quentin TartabullSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
6.3%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Roscoe JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+11
5.3%
Chazz Surratt run for 11 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
5.6%
Surratt, C sideline pass incomplete to Jackson, T, PENALTY CAL holding (Downs, Devante) 6 yards to the CAL6, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
5.6%
Surratt, C pass incomplete, PENALTY CAL holding (Bynum, Camryn) 3 yards to the CAL3, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
6.1%
Chazz Surratt run for 2 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.5%
Chazz Surratt run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:58
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
-31.9
TD · Q3 4:23
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 54 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
-20
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-19.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com