2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadMTST aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreMTST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:44 · Tyler Hilinski pass complete to Gerard Wicks for 11 yds to the MntSt 21 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:13: Kevin Kassis run for 5 yds to the WshSt 38 — MTST win probability +0.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MTST has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:05: Jamal Morrow run for 27 yds to the MntSt 48 for a 1ST down — WSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Luke Daly kickoff for 60 yds , Robert Taylor return for 23 yds to the WshSt 28 — MTST win probability +0.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MTST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:09: Jamal Morrow run for 29 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:22: Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MTST made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 15:00MTST 4th & 3 at MTST 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.3%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q1 6:12MTST 4th & 16 at MTST 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 9:06MTST 4th & 4 at MTST 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.6%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 8:54WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 12, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.5%average punt
- Q2 6:36MTST 4th & 2 at MTST 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 2:33MTST 4th & 18 at MTST 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q2 2:13MTST 4th & 1 at WSU 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.3%71% to convertField goal3.1%−0.347% to makePunt2.9%−0.4average punt
- Q3 14:55WSU 4th & 5 at WSU 45, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.9%average punt
- Q3 11:31MTST 4th & 4 at MTST 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.4%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q3 7:09MTST 4th & 8 at MTST 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q3 4:42WSU 4th & 6 at MTST 43, up 21Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.8%40% to convertField goal98.7%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call98.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 13:16MTST 4th & 9 at MTST 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:32WSU 4th & 6 at MTST 23, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%70% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 7:26MTST 4th & 6 at MTST 38, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 6:12WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:19WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:09WSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:22WSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMTSTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+14
99.1%
Luke Daly punt for 55 yds , Jamal Morrow returns for 14 yds to the WshSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2TD13 plays · 73 yds · 6:3099% → 99%
Q1 12:42
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+4
99.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 4 yds to the WshSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 11 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 2 yds to the MntSt 36Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-5
99.0%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, false start (Tavares Martin Jr.) to the MntSt 41Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+10
99.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 10 yds to the MntSt 31Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+15
99.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 15 yds to the MntSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Renard Bell for no gain to the MntSt 16Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 5 yds to the MntSt 11Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
98.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 14 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q1 6:12
4TH & 16
OWN 39
+51
98.6%
Luke Daly punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WASHST 19 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, personal foul (9 Yards) to the WshSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4TD15 plays · 90 yds · 6:2198% → 98%
Q1 2:40
2ND & 3
OWN 17
-8
98.2%
Williams, James rush for 1 yard to the WSU18 (WRIGHT, Zach;BIGNELL, Mac), PENALTY WSU holding (Madison, Cole) 8 yards to the WSU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+14
98.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Isaiah Johnson-Mack for 14 yds to the WshSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+11
98.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Isaiah Johnson-Mack for 11 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
98.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
98.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 15 yds to the MntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
98.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gerard Wicks for 8 yds to the MntSt 25Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+15
98.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 15 yds to the MntSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
98.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Renard Bell for 4 yds to the MntSt 6Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.4%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:082% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 8:54
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-12
98.0%
Luke Falk sacked by Mac Bignell for a loss of 12 yards to the WshSt 2Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 20
OWN 2
+10
97.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 10 yds to the WshSt 12Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
97.9%
Kyle Sweet punt for 48 yds , Kevin Kassis returns for no gain to the MntSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 4 yds · 4:032% → 2%
Q2 6:36
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+8
97.8%
Chris Murray pass complete to Mitchell Herbert for 8 yds to the MntSt 47Similar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
97.6%
Chris Murray sacked by Jahad Woods and Hercules Mata'afa for a loss of 4 yards to the MntSt 48Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 14
OWN 48
-4
97.6%
Chris Murray sacked by Hercules Mata'afa for a loss of 4 yards to the MntSt 44Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 18
OWN 44
+10
97.6%
Luke Daly punt for 37 yds , Jamal Morrow returns for 10 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8FUMBLE1 play · 14 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
97.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Isaiah Johnson-Mack for 14 yds Isaiah Johnson-Mack fumbled, forced by Khari Garcia, recovered by MntSt Grant CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 9MISSED FG8 plays · 18 yds · 2:083% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · 27 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+9
97.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Isaiah Johnson-Mack for 9 yds to the WshSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-6
97.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tay Martin for 4 yds to the 50 yard line WASHINGTON ST Penalty, illegal block (Jamire Calvin) to the WshSt 40Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-4
97.5%
Luke Falk sacked by Chase Benson for a loss of 4 yards to the WshSt 36Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+9
97.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 9 yds to the WshSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
WSUDrive 13TD5 plays · 66 yds · 2:0797% → 99%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
97.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 8 yds to the WshSt 42Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+21
97.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 21 yds to the MntSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
97.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 5 yds to the MntSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
WSUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
99.0%
James Williams run for 1 yd to the WshSt 27 James Williams fumbled, forced by Damien Washington,Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+15
99.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 15 yds to the WshSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
99.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 11 yds to the MntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
99.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 4 yds to the MntSt 43Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
98.9%
Mitchell Cox punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kevin Kassis at the MntSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 16INT2 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
WSUDrive 17TD7 plays · 63 yds · 3:0399% → 100%
MTSTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19FG8 plays · 50 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
MTSTDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:26
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+6
100.0%
Chris Murray pass complete to Mitchell Herbert for 6 yds to the MntSt 26Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+8
100.0%
Chris Murray pass complete to Mitchell Herbert for 8 yds to the MntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Chris Murray pass complete to Mitchell Herbert for 6 yds to the MntSt 43Similar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Luke Daly punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jamal Morrow at the WshSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21END OF GAME10 plays · 57 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to Isaiah Johnson-Mack for 3 yds to the WshSt 25Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 6 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
100.0%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 14 yds to the MntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
100.0%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 6 yds to the MntSt 42Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+8
100.0%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to Gerard Wicks for 8 yds to the MntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
100.0%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to Gerard Wicks for 2 yds to the MntSt 32Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+11
100.0%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to Gerard Wicks for 11 yds to the MntSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:09
Jamal Morrow run for 29 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)
+1.8
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:05
Jamal Morrow run for 27 yds to the MntSt 48 for a 1ST down
+0.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Luke Daly kickoff for 60 yds , Robert Taylor return for 23 yds to the WshSt 28
-0.8