Try the model
WMU

Western Michigan 31 at USC 49

USC
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:56 · Derrick Mitchell punt for 54 yds , Ajene Harris returns for 15 yds to the WMich 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+37.3Home team on offense−4.7Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:11: Keishawn Watson pass complete to Jon Wassink for 27 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK) — WMU win probability +15.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:34: Sam Darnold run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +20.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:07: Stephen Carr run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +18.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:54: Michael Brown kickoff for 65 yds , Darius Phillips return for 100 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK) — WMU win probability +24.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:57: Ronald Jones II run for 37 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +26.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 4WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:49WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:39USC 4th & 14 at USC 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:01USC 4th & 4 at USC 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:53USC 4th & 2 at USC 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:36WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:28USC 4th & 4 at USC 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:56WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:37WMU 4th & 2 at USC 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:37WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 25, up 7
    Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:15WMU 4th & 11 at WMU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−4.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:37WMU 4th & 18 at USC 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−2.9
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−5.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:00USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:07WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:53WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:21USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:11WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:34USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:07USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:54WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:57USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−1.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:49USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:13USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4597% → 97%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+29
97.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 29 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
97.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+4
96.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 4 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
96.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 11 yds to the WMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
96.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:043% → 3%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
96.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for 4 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
96.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for 1 yd to the WMich 40Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
96.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
96.7%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 45 yds, downed at the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:1097% → 97%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
96.8%
USC Penalty, False Start (Toa Lobendahn) to the USC 10Similar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+3
96.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+6
96.7%
Sam Darnold run for 6 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-8
96.6%
Sam Darnold sacked by Asantay Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 11Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
96.5%
Reid Budrovich punt for 48 yds , Darius Phillips returns for no gain to the WMich 41 Darius Phillips fumbled, recovered by WMichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:264% → 5%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
96.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
96.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+15
96.3%
Jon Wassink run for 15 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
96.2%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
96.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Anton Curtis for 9 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
96.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
95.9%
Wassink, Jon pass incomplete to Watson, Keishawn (Jones, Jack), PENALTY USC pass interference (Jones, Jack) 15 yards to the USC12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTMICH.Similar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
95.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 8 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
95.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4595% → 95%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
95.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
95.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Jalen Greene, broken up by Sam BealSimilar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
95.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
95.1%
Reid Budrovich punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 5:025% → 8%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
95.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 22 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
94.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for 16 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
94.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
94.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
94.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
93.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+9
93.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 9 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
93.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 1 yd to the USC 22Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+10
93.4%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Anton Curtis for 10 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
93.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
91.6%
Jon Wassink run for 7 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5492% → 91%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
92.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Cary AngelineSimilar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
92.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 8 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
91.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q2 13:53
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
91.4%
Reid Budrovich punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:099% → 10%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
91.4%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for no gain to the WMich 26Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
91.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 11 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.5%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Luke SandersSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
90.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
89.9%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
90.2%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5790% → 89%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
90.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+4
90.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
89.8%
Sam Darnold run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 24 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by USC Ronald Jones IISimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 16
OWN 24
0
89.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+12
88.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 12 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
88.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2411% → 12%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
88.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 8Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 7
OWN 8
0
88.6%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete, broken up by Uchenna NwosuSimilar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 7
OWN 8
-4
88.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Chukwuma Okorafor) to the WMich 4Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+2
88.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 6Similar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 9
OWN 6
+15
87.8%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 54 yds , Ajene Harris returns for 15 yds to the WMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:2788% → 91%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-9
88.3%
Sam Darnold sacked by Eric Assoua for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 19
OWN 46
+12
87.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 12 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+14
87.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 14 yds to the WMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
87.6%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the WMich 24Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-5
87.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (Chuma Edoga) to the WMich 29Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+1
87.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the WMich 28Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+19
86.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 19 yds to the WMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
86.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 8 yds to the WMich 1Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 2:4412% → 15%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.5%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Ykili Ross) to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
87.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+8
87.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 8 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
86.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 7 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+13
86.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 13 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
85.0%
Jon Wassink run for 7 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
84.6%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Donnie Ernsberger, broken up by John Houston Jr.Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+1
84.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 1 yd to the USC 21Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
85.2%
Josh Grant 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:2388% → 88%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
88.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 11 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
88.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 1 yd to the USC 33Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
87.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+20
86.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 20 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
88.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (Chuma Edoga) to the USC 48Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 15
OWN 48
0
87.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+20
87.6%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Darius Phillips return for 20 yds to the WMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0117% → 17%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
83.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 12 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
83.1%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Donnie ErnsbergerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4014% → 34%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
84.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 9 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
84.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 35Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+4
84.3%
Jon Wassink run for 4 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+11
83.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Anton Curtis for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
50
-5
81.7%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Chukwuma Okorafor) to the WMich 45Similar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+17
83.0%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 2 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Uchenna Nwosu) to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
81.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 6 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+1
79.7%
Jon Wassink run for 1 yd to the USC 31Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-10
80.1%
Bogan, Jamauri rush for 11 yards to the USC20, PENALTY WESTMICH holding (Novoselsky, Zach) 10 yards to the USC41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+14
81.4%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Iman Marshall) to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
65.8%
Keishawn Watson pass complete to Jon Wassink for 27 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16INT
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:4071% → 72%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
70.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 12 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
71.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
72.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 8 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+2
72.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
71.5%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Sam Beal return for no gain to the WMich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2835% → 38%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
65.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 9 yds to the WMich 16Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+1
64.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the WMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
63.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 19Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+5
62.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 5 yds to the WMich 24Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+1
61.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the WMich 25Similar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
61.7%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 58 yds, downed at the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:5862% → 80%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
62.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 12 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-15
62.5%
Jones II, Ronald rush for 9 yards to the USC38, PENALTY USC personal foul (Brown, Chris) 15 yards to the USC14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 25
OWN 14
+1
61.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 15Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 24
OWN 15
+7
60.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 7 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+27
57.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 27 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
62.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 7 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+4
63.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
62.6%
Velus Jones Jr. run for a loss of 7 yards to the WMich 47Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+8
59.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 8 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+28
59.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 28 yds to the WMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
80.2%
Sam Darnold run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:4528% → 29%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
70.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 30Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
71.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 5 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
69.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
68.3%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-3
69.3%
Jon Wassink sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 34Similar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
71.1%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:0075% → 92%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
75.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 45Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+5
74.9%
Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Mitchell Jr., Steven, PENALTY WESTMICH offside (Assoua, Eric) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 4
50
+8
75.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Stephen Carr for 8 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
75.7%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
75.5%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler PetiteSimilar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+8
74.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 8 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
76.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+12
75.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 12 yds to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
75.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 7 yds to the WMich 8Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+2
74.8%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the WMich 6Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
72.9%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the WMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
74.1%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the WMich 1Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.2%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 0:4767% → 93%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
66.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+42
65.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 42 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
92.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 37 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:0512% → 23%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+48
87.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 48 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
83.6%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Chukwuma Okorafor) to the USC 23Similar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+1
84.0%
Jon Wassink run for 1 yd to the USC 22Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 14
OPP 22
-5
84.6%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Chukwuma Okorafor) to the USC 27Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 19
OPP 27
0
85.1%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 19
OPP 27
+1
86.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 18
OPP 26
+43
77.5%
Josh Grant 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 0:3487% → 96%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
86.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 11 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
88.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+52
96.1%
Stephen Carr run for 52 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25INT TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:245% → 2%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
95.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Anton CurtisSimilar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+37
98.5%
Jon Wassink pass intercepted for a TD Marvell Tell III return for 37 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:542% → 1%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
98.5%
Davon Tucker run for 1 yd to the WMich 17Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+11
98.5%
Davon Tucker run for 11 yds to the WMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.4%
Davon Tucker run for no gain to the WMich 28Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-4
98.5%
Davon Tucker run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 24Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+4
98.6%
Davon Tucker run for 4 yds to the WMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:57
Ronald Jones II run for 37 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+26.8
TD · Q4 7:54
Michael Brown kickoff for 65 yds , Darius Phillips return for 100 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)
-24
TD · Q3 0:34
Sam Darnold run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+20.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com