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NAU

Northern Arizona 24 at Arizona 62

ARIZ
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadNAU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreNAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:30 · Jake Glatting punt for 40 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Pregame prior+23.8Home team on offense+32.1Score differential+22.6Blowout margin+9.3Garbage-time factor+10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:38: Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 43 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:48: Cory Young run for 7 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler KICK) — NAU win probability +2.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:49: Tyrell Johnson run for 55 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +2.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:21: Brandon Dawkins run for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack PAT MISSED) — ARIZ win probability +3.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:56: Brandon Dawkins run for 66 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NAU 4th & 13 at ARIZ 14, tied
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:37ARIZ 4th & 9 at NAU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:12NAU 4th & 6 at NAU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:20ARIZ 4th & 15 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:27NAU 4th & 16 at NAU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:38NAU 4th & 1 at NAU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:43ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:22NAU 4th & 5 at NAU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:56NAU 4th & 6 at NAU 45, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:20NAU 4th & 6 at ARIZ 6, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:30ARIZ 4th & 3 at NAU 39, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:30ARIZ 4th & 19 at NAU 40, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:17NAU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 15, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:55ARIZ 4th & 1 at NAU 1, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:26NAU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:08ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:38ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:48NAU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:49ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:21ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:56ARIZ Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:20ARIZ Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:25NAU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:16ARIZ Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:55ARIZ Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAUDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 22 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
95.7%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 45 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
95.7%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
95.7%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+11
95.7%
Joe Logan run for 11 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+13
95.7%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 13 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
95.7%
Joe Logan run for 3 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
95.7%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-6
95.7%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-6 Yards) to the Ariz 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 14
0
95.7%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Cory YoungSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 14
-39
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 39 yards to the NoArz 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
95.3%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoArz 46Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
95.3%
Brandon Dawkins run for no gain to the NoArz 46Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
95.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
95.2%
Jake Glatting punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Elijah Marks at the NoArz 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 3PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:285% → 5%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
95.1%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 4 yds to the NoArz 16Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
95.0%
Joe Logan run for no gain to the NoArz 16Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
95.1%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+66
95.1%
Luis Aguilar punt for 50 yds , Shun Brown returns for 66 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:465% → 6%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.1%
Case Cookus pass complete to Jonathan Baldwin for 11 yds to the NoArz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
95.0%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 6 yds to the NoArz 42Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+58
94.4%
Cory Young run for 58 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
94.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 5 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+5
94.6%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
94.6%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST down NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
94.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 7 yds to the NoArz 49Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
94.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the NoArz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
94.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+5
94.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 15
50
0
94.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete, broken up by Jake CasteelSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 15
50
0
94.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 15
50
0
94.5%
Jake Glatting punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Elijah Marks at the NoArz 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+18
93.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 18 yds to the NoArz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.9%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Elijah MarksSimilar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
93.9%
Joe Logan run for 3 yds to the NoArz 34Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+16
94.0%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
50
0
93.7%
Case Cookus pass incomplete, broken up by Jacob ColacionSimilar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
50
+21
93.8%
Joe Logan run for 21 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
93.7%
Joe Logan run for 1 yd to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-14
93.7%
Case Cookus sacked by Kylan Wilborn for a loss of 14 yards to the Ariz 42 Case Cookus fumbled, recovered by Ariz Finton Connolly , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:4794% → 94%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
93.6%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
93.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 7 yds to the NoArz 49Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
93.6%
Brandon Dawkins run for 3 yds to the NoArz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
94.3%
Nick Wilson run for 46 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 8INT
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:086% → 7%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.0%
Joe Logan run for 3 yds to the NoArz 28Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
93.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 5 yds to the NoArz 33Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+20
93.9%
Cory Young run for 5 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.7%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+26
93.7%
Case Cookus pass complete to Jonathan Baldwin for 26 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
93.5%
Joe Logan run for 1 yd to the Ariz 20Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+6
93.5%
Joe Logan run for 6 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+5
92.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
92.6%
Case Cookus pass intercepted Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles return for no gain to the Ariz 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
93.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 2Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
93.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+4
93.2%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+56
93.0%
Jake Glatting punt for 46 yds , Elijah Marks returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 5 NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, IB (10 Yards) to the NoArz 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
92.8%
Joe Logan run for 5 yds to the NoArz 42Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-11
92.6%
Case Cookus sacked by Justin Belknap for a loss of 11 yards to the NoArz 31Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 16
OWN 31
0
93.2%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Emmanuel ButlerSimilar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
93.2%
Luis Aguilar punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:2493% → 95%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
93.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 10 yds to the NoArz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
95.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 43 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 12TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:506% → 9%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Emmanuel ButlerSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.3%
Case Cookus pass complete to Cory Young for 6 yds to the NoArz 31Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
94.3%
Case Cookus run for 3 yds to the NoArz 34Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
94.3%
Cory Young run for 4 yds to the NoArz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
94.2%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 9 yds to the NoArz 47Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
93.9%
Cory Young run for 4 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
94.0%
Case Cookus pass complete to Joe Logan for 10 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
94.0%
Cory Young run for 1 yd to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+7
94.0%
Case Cookus pass complete to Hunter Burton for 7 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+15
93.9%
COOKUS, Case pass incomplete to BUTLER, E., PENALTY ARIZ pass interference 15 yards to the ARIZ16, 1ST DOWN NAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
93.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 5 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
93.8%
Case Cookus run for 4 yds to the Ariz 7Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
90.8%
Cory Young run for 7 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
92.0%
Brandon Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
92.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Cedric Peterson, broken up by Khalil DorseySimilar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+4
91.8%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+2
91.6%
Jake Glatting punt for 48 yds , Elijah Marks returns for 2 yds to the NoArz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
91.3%
Joe Logan run for 2 yds to the NoArz 22Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
91.4%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Elijah MarksSimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+3
91.7%
Case Cookus pass complete to Cory Young for 3 yds to the NoArz 25Similar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Luis Aguilar punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
94.3%
Tyrell Johnson run for 55 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 16INT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:096% → 6%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
93.8%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, IB (-12 Yards) to the NoArz 13Similar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+6
93.8%
Case Cookus run for 6 yds to the NoArz 19Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+7
93.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Cory Young for 7 yds to the NoArz 26Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
93.6%
Case Cookus pass intercepted Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles return for no gain to the Ariz 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:1295% → 98%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
94.6%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the NoArz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
94.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+2
94.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 18
50
+7
94.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 7 yds to the NoArz 43Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+15
94.3%
Brandon Dawkins run for 5 yds to the NoArz 38 for a 1ST down NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the NoArz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
94.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 15 yds to the NoArz 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
94.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the NoArz 10Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
98.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 0:5898% → 100%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
98.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
98.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 8 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
99.5%
Brandon Dawkins run for 66 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 7 yds to the NoArz 32Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
98.2%
Case Cookus pass complete to Joe Logan for 2 yds to the NoArz 34Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
98.2%
Joe Logan run for 7 yds to the NoArz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
98.4%
Joe Logan run for 4 yds to the NoArz 45Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
98.2%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
98.2%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Cory YoungSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+5
98.3%
Luis Aguilar punt for 49 yds , Shun Brown returns for 5 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21TD
5 plays · 89 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
99.6%
Brandon Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+24
99.6%
Nick Wilson run for 24 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
99.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 15 yds to the NoArz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
99.6%
Zach Green run for 9 yds to the NoArz 37Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+37
99.7%
Zach Green run for 37 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 73 yds · 0:000% → 1%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.6%
Cory Young run for 5 yds to the NoArz 30Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
99.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 12 yds to the NoArz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+50
99.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 50 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.6%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Emmanuel ButlerSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
99.6%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 13Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
99.6%
Cory Young run for 7 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.5%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.2%
Case Cookus run for 4 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
15 plays · 58 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
99.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-1 Yards) to the Ariz 1Similar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
99.7%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 4Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+3
99.7%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 7Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+7
99.7%
Khalil Tate run for 7 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+40
99.7%
Khalil Tate run for 40 yds to the NoArz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Zach Green run for no gain to the NoArz 46Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete, broken up by Cole SternsSimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.7%
Zach Green run for 7 yds to the NoArz 39Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+8
99.7%
Khalil Tate run for 8 yds to the NoArz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.7%
Zach Green run for 4 yds to the NoArz 27Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-7
99.8%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 7 yards to the NoArz 34Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 13
OPP 34
-5
99.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, IR (-5 Yards) to the NoArz 39Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 18
OPP 39
+4
99.7%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the NoArz 35Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 14
OPP 35
-5
99.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoArz 40Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 19
OPP 40
0
99.7%
Jake Glatting punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Joe Logan run for 1 yd to the NoArz 21Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+44
99.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 44 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.8%
Joe Logan run for 3 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
99.8%
Cory Young run for 4 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+6
99.8%
Joe Logan run for 6 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.8%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Emmanuel ButlerSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.9%
Joe Logan run for 22 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.9%
Branden Leon run for 7 yds to the NoArz 33Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+6
99.8%
Branden Leon run for 6 yds to the NoArz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.9%
Branden Leon run for 7 yds to the NoArz 20Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Branden Leon run for no gain to the NoArz 20Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+10
99.8%
Khalil Tate run for 10 yds to the NoArz 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Branden Leon run for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 26FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 3:590% → 0%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Hunter Correll pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Hunter Correll pass complete to Chance Brewington for 9 yds to the NoArz 34Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
99.9%
Cory Young run for 10 yds to the NoArz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Hunter Correll pass complete to Chance Brewington for 4 yds to the NoArz 48Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+10
99.9%
Cory Young run for 10 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Joe Logan run for 2 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+15
99.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Hunter Correll pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Hunter Correll pass incomplete to Joe LoganSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+10
99.9%
Hunter Correll pass complete to Matthew Kempton for 10 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Hunter Correll pass incomplete to Emmanuel Butler, broken up by Lorenzo BurnsSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Hunter Correll pass incomplete to Emmanuel ButlerSimilar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Hunter Correll pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
99.9%
Griffin Roehler 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:17100% → 100%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
Nathan Tilford run for 4 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+65
99.9%
Nathan Tilford run for 65 yds to the NoArz 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
99.9%
Nathan Tilford run for 7 yds to the NoArz 3Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.9%
Rhett Rodriguez run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 4Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.9%
Nathan Tilford run for 3 yds to the NoArz 1Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Rhett Rodriguez run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:490% → 0%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
100.0%
Gerrit Groenewold pass complete to Chance Brewington for 9 yds to the NoArz 34Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
100.0%
Aramis Aldredge run for 9 yds to the NoArz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
100.0%
Gerrit Groenewold pass complete to Matthew Kempton for 6 yds to the NoArz 49Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-2
100.0%
Aramis Aldredge run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 47Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+33
100.0%
Gerrit Groenewold pass complete to Justis Stokes for 33 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
100.0%
Aramis Aldredge run for 1 yd to the Ariz 19Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
100.0%
Aramis Aldredge run for 5 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+5
100.0%
Cook Jalen run for 5 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:21
Brandon Dawkins run for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack PAT MISSED)
+3.5
TD · Q2 6:48
Cory Young run for 7 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q2 3:49
Tyrell Johnson run for 55 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com