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CSU

Colorado State 3 at Colorado 17

COLO
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2017 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:42 · Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Home team on offense+8.0Score differential+3.1Pregame prior+5.2Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:11: Phillip Lindsay run for 45 yds for a TD, (Chris Graham KICK) — COLO win probability +3.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:36: Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 31 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +10.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:44: Timeout COLORADO ST, clock 00:44 — COLO win probability +4.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:14: Timeout COLORADO ST, clock 03:14 — COLO win probability +5.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:09: Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 47 — COLO win probability +3.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 7CSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:05COLO 4th & 12 at COLO 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:12CSU 4th & 19 at COLO 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:11CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:38COLO 4th & 3 at CSU 22, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:38CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:56CSU 4th & 10 at COLO 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−8.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:42CSU 4th & 2 at COLO 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%−1.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:37COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 48, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:04CSU 4th & 23 at COLO 46, down 14
    Numbers favored punt by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−1.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    19.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00COLO 4th & 13 at COLO 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−2.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:05COLO 4th & 2 at CSU 36, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−2.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:14CSU 4th & 21 at CSU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−2.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:35CSU 4th & 5 at COLO 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%−1.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:03COLO 4th & 16 at CSU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−2.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:05COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:11COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:36COLO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
58.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 10Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
58.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
58.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
58.6%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
58.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 4 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-1
58.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 13Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-5
58.6%
Steven Montez sacked by Jakob Buys for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 8Similar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
58.6%
Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds, downed at the ColSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
58.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 7
50
+5
58.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+13
58.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 13 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
58.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
58.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-15
58.3%
STEVENS, N. pass complete to JOHNSON, O. for 17 yards to the COLO9 (Udoffia, Trey), PENALTY CSU pass interference (JOHNSON, O.) 15 yards to the COLO41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 19
OPP 41
0
58.6%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 19
OPP 41
0
58.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 35 yds, downed at the Colo 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD
6 plays · 94 yds · 1:3059% → 62%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
58.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 10 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
58.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 7 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, roughing passer (Jakob Buys) to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
58.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 5 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+12
59.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 12 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
62.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 45 yds for a TD, (Chris Graham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Detrich Clark run for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
61.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
61.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
61.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
61.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
61.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 5
OWN 41
-5
61.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+31
61.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Oliver at the COLORADO 18 COLORADO ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Colo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:5463% → 65%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
62.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 5 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
63.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 4 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+14
63.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 14 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
63.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 15 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
63.8%
Michael Adkins II run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
63.8%
Michael Adkins II run for 5 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
63.4%
Michael Adkins II run for no gain to the ColSt 22Similar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
65.2%
James Stefanou 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
65.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
65.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup, broken up by Ryan MoellerSimilar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
65.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
65.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:4867% → 77%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
66.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 6 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+18
66.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 18 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-7
67.1%
Steven Montez run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28 COLORADO Penalty, Offensive holding (Gerrad Kough) to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 17
OPP 38
+7
66.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
77.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 31 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:4026% → 27%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
74.4%
Rashaad Boddie run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
74.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Cameron Butler for 3 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
74.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 19 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
73.8%
Rashaad Boddie run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 4
50
+24
73.3%
Rashaad Boddie run for 24 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
72.7%
Rashaad Boddie run for no gain to the Colo 26 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Javier Edwards) to the Colo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
72.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton FackrellSimilar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
72.7%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the Colo 13Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
73.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
73.4%
Wyatt Bryan 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.0%
Steven Montez run for 7 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
74.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 5 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
75.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 2 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
75.8%
Steven Montez pass intercepted Kevin Nutt Jr. return for no gain to the Colo 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3226% → 26%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
73.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup, broken up by Isaiah OliverSimilar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
74.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 9 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-1
73.3%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 39Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
74.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
76.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
76.2%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+6
75.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Chris Bounds for 6 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
74.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13DOWNS
17 plays · 34 yds · 5:1424% → 18%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
76.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 14 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
76.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
76.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+9
76.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 9 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
75.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+5
76.3%
Nick Stevens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+10
75.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 10 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
75.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-5
74.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 48Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+19
75.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 19 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
73.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Cameron Butler) to the Colo 38Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 15
OPP 38
0
78.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 15
OPP 38
0
78.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup, broken up by Isaiah OliverSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 15
OPP 38
-8
79.1%
Nick Stevens sacked by Jacob Callier for a loss of 8 yards to the Colo 46Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 23
OPP 46
-10
81.8%
Nick Stevens sacked by Rick Gamboa for a loss of 10 yards to the ColSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.9%
Steven Montez run for no gain to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
80.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 12 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
81.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-8
80.8%
Steven Montez sacked by Ellison Hubbard for a loss of 8 yards to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+7
80.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 7 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+33
79.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 48 yds, downed at the COLORADO 18 COLORADO Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the ColSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15INT
10 plays · 12 yds · 4:0619% → 16%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
80.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 5 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
80.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+5
79.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
80.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 14 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
79.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the Colo 38Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+11
79.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 11 yds to the Colo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
79.9%
STEVENS, N. pass complete to CLARK, D. for 27 yards to the COLO0, clock 09:03, PENALTY CSU pass interference (CLARK, D.) 15 yards to the COLO42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 25
OPP 42
+2
82.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 23
OPP 40
-15
82.7%
STEVENS, N. pass complete to JOHNSON, O. for 40 yards to the COLO0, clock 08:13, PENALTY CSU personal foul (TAYLOR, J.) 15 yards to the CSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 38
OWN 45
0
83.7%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Evan Worthington return for no gain to the Colo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 46 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
85.7%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Aaron Haigler) to the Colo 13Similar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 15
OWN 13
-5
85.6%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Aaron Haigler) to the Colo 8Similar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 20
OWN 8
+3
85.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 17
OWN 11
+5
85.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 5 yds to the Colo 16Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+28
84.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 28 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
86.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 12 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
86.4%
Steven Montez run for 8 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
86.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
85.8%
Steven Montez run for no gain to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
85.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 26 yds, downed at the ColSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 1:4814% → 11%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+31
85.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 31 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
84.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 6 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
83.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
83.4%
STEVENS, N. pass complete to GALLUP, M. for 33 yards to the COLO15, out-of-bounds, PENALTY CSU pass interference (GALLUP, M.) 15 yards to the CSU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 25
OWN 37
+4
88.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 4 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 21
OWN 41
0
89.0%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 21
OWN 41
0
89.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Trey UdoffiaSimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 21
OWN 41
0
89.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18INT
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:1792% → 94%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
91.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
91.8%
Steven Montez sacked by Richard King for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 17 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Richard King) to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
92.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
92.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
91.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 7 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
92.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 8 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
92.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
93.7%
Steven Montez run for 6 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
93.8%
Michael Adkins II run for 3 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
93.7%
Beau Bisharat run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
93.8%
Steven Montez pass intercepted, touchback. Kevin Nutt Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
92.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 16 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
91.9%
Nick Stevens run for no gain to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+14
92.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
50
+5
91.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
91.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Detrich ClarkSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
91.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton FackrellSimilar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
91.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20MISSED FG
13 plays · 34 yds · 5:0695% → 96%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
95.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+11
95.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 11 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
95.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+4
95.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+13
95.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 13 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
95.4%
Steven Montez run for 6 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
95.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+5
95.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, (5 Yards) to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
95.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-6
95.4%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Josh Kaiser) to the ColSt 19Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 14
OPP 19
-16
95.2%
Steven Montez sacked by Tre Thomas for a loss of 16 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 30
OPP 35
+14
95.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 14 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 16
OPP 21
+38
96.4%
James Stefanou 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
95.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 9 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+4
95.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+38
95.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 38 yds Warren Jackson fumbled, forced by Trey Udoffia, recovered by Colo Afolabi Laguda , return for 11 yds to the Colo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0497% → 98%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
97.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-3
97.3%
Steven Montez sacked by Toby McBride for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+5
97.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
98.2%
Alex Kinney punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23INT
9 plays · 68 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
97.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Cameron Butler for 2 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+11
97.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 11 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
97.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 13 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.2%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
97.2%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+15
97.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 15 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
96.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 16 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.5%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted, touchback. Trey Udoffia return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
98.7%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 19Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
98.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:36
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 31 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)
+10.6
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:14
Timeout COLORADO ST, clock 03:14
+5.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:44
Timeout COLORADO ST, clock 00:44
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com