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NMSU

New Mexico State 31 at Arizona State 37

ASU
2017 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2017 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:21 · Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Gregory Hogan at the NMxSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+30.1Home team on offense+6.7Score differential+1.8Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:32: Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:50: M. Wilkins pass,to J. Humphrey for 60 yds for a TD, (B. Ruiz PAT MISSED) — ASU win probability +5.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:50: Kalen Ballage 20 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick) — ASU win probability +5.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:04: Jason Huntley 23 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — NMSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Jaleel Scott 29 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers — NMSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:37NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:39ASU 4th & 8 at NMSU 35, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:01NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ASU 4th & 11 at ASU 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:17ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 34, up 8
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:06NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:21ASU 4th & 15 at NMSU 45, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    88.6%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00ASU 4th & 2 at NMSU 38, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%−1.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ASU 4th & 2 at NMSU 37, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−1.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:50ASU 4th & 10 at NMSU 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    79.1%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:50NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:50NMSU 4th & 4 at ASU 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−0.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:52NMSU 4th & 9 at midfield, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:36ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 16, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:27ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:58ASU 4th & 14 at NMSU 47, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:37ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:26ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:52NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:32NMSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:50ASU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:50ASU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:52ASU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:27NMSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:04NMSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
94.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+12
94.3%
Larry Rose III run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
94.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
94.3%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Joey Bryant return for no gain to the ArzSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:0294% → 94%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
94.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 9 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+11
94.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
94.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to John Humphrey for 10 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
94.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+9
94.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Nick Ralston for 9 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
94.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+9
94.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.0%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.6%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
93.6%
[NHSG], PENALTY NMSU false start (Doxtater, Sage) 5 yards to the NMSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
93.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
93.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 7 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+6
93.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 47 yds , Jacom Brimhall returns for 6 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:2493% → 94%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
93.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 18 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
94.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 53 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · -3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.9%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
93.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 2 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
93.8%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
93.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-15
93.8%
[NHSG], Rogers, Tyler pass complete to Muse, Anthony for 7 yards to the 50 yardline (Calhoun, DJ), PENALTY NMSU personal foul 15 yards to the NMSU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 25
OWN 28
0
93.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Dasmond TautalatasiSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 25
OWN 28
-6
93.9%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Koron Crump for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 31
OWN 22
0
93.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacom Brimhall at the ArzSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
94.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
94.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 6 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+19
94.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 19 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
94.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to John Humphrey for 9 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 1
OPP 28
-7
94.2%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Stody Bradley for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
94.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Nick RalstonSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
94.0%
Manny Wilkins punt for 16 yds, downed at the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
93.7%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Koron Crump for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+5
93.7%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-5
93.7%
[NHSG], PENALTY NMSU false start (Doxtater, Sage) 5 yards to the NMSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 15
OWN 14
0
93.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 15
OWN 14
0
93.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 36 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2394% → 94%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
50
-4
94.0%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+8
93.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-5
93.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by D Harrington for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
93.6%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 4:007% → 9%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
93.3%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+23
93.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 23 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
93.2%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
93.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
93.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+9
92.9%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
93.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 4 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+8
92.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 8 yds to the ArzSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
92.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 9 yds to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+2
92.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 2 yds to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
92.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
92.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
91.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 15 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:3591% → 90%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-8
91.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 30 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
91.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+14
90.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
90.4%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
91.2%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
91.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 7 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+7
91.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 7 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
91.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
91.2%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+13
91.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
90.7%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
90.5%
Sy Slater pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
90.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
91.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 30 yds , Jacom Brimhall returns for no gain to the ArzSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:1390% → 90%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
90.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 8 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+11
90.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
91.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+7
90.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+8
90.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
91.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-7
91.1%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Malik Demby for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
90.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
89.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Gregory Hogan at the NMxSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 2:3610% → 19%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
90.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 12
OWN 9
0
90.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 12
OWN 9
+12
91.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 12 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
90.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+38
89.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 38 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
88.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
88.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+12
89.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 12 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
88.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+8
88.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 8 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:2387% → 85%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
87.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Nick Ralston for 8 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
86.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to John HumphreySimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
86.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+56
85.4%
Brandon Ruiz 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15FG
15 plays · 41 yds · 6:1085% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
84.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by D Harrington for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
84.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
84.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 15 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
86.1%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+16
85.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to John Humphrey for 16 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
86.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
86.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
86.1%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+5
84.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+3
85.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
86.8%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Jassavia Reese for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 37
0
85.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Nick Ralston for no gain to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+3
85.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
84.3%
Brandon Ruiz 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.9%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
84.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
84.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
1 play · 60 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
90.8%
M. Wilkins pass,to J. Humphrey for 60 yds for a TD, (B. Ruiz PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
89.8%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
89.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 7 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
88.9%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
88.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 5 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+8
88.6%
Jason Huntley run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
88.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 1 yd to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-4
88.6%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Alani Latu for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+9
89.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 9 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
89.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Joey BryantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:2390% → 97%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
90.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 6 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-1
91.0%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Malik Demby for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+9
90.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 9 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
91.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 1 yd to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+15
91.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to John Humphrey for 15 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
91.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 16 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
91.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to John Humphrey for 1 yd to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+20
96.8%
Kalen Ballage 20 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20INT TD
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:584% → 1%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
96.3%
Tyler Rogers sacked by JoJo Wicker for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 21 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+12
96.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
96.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
96.2%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Tashon Smallwood for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 40 Tyler Rogers fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Tyler Rogers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+49
99.0%
Kobe Williams 49 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Sy Slater for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-17
99.0%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 29 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Gregory Hogan) to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+34
99.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 34 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
99.0%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Tashon Smallwood for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+6
99.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 6 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+2
99.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:52
4TH & 9
50
0
99.0%
Peyton Theisler punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jacom Brimhall at the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-5
99.1%
Manny Wilkins sacked by TEAM for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 14 Manny Wilkins fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Manny Wilkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
99.0%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 43 yds , OJ Clark returns for no gain to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+2
99.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 1:061% → 3%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
99.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 1
50
+50
97.3%
Jason Huntley 50 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-3
98.1%
Blake Barnett run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
98.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
98.0%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:033% → 7%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.5%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+12
97.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 12 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
97.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for 3 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
97.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+14
97.5%
Jason Huntley run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
97.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Sy Slater for 5 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+23
93.2%
Jason Huntley 23 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26PUNT
14 plays · 28 yds · 4:0696% → 98%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
95.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
96.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to John Humphrey for 12 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
97.1%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
97.0%
Mark Cosgrove run for no gain to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+15
97.6%
Barnett, Blake pass incomplete to Harvey, Jalen, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Perkins, Austin) 15 yards to the NMSU43, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.7%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-2
97.8%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-6
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
97.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 32 yds, downed at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 0:482% → 19%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
97.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Drew Dan for 13 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+28
97.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for 28 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
97.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for 10 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
96.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Drew Dan for 5 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
96.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+29
81.2%
Jaleel Scott 29 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.8
TD · Q4 0:00
Jaleel Scott 29 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers
-15.4
TD · Q2 0:32
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
-6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com