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PITT

Pittsburgh 14 at Penn State 33

PSU
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:11 · Ben Dinucci sacked by Robert Windsor for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 17 Ben Dinucci fumbled, forced by Robert Windsor, recovered by PnSt Robert Windsor , return for 0 yards
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Pregame prior+0.2Home team on offense+31.4Score differential+12.3Garbage-time factor+5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+20.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:20: Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:32: Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 46 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:03: Alex Kessman 24 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +2.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:54: Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:09: Ben Dinucci run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Dinucci pass to Qadree Ollison for Two-Point Conversion) — PITT win probability +3.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7PITT made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:34PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:50PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03PITT 4th & 18 at PITT 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:17PITT 4th & 1 at PSU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−1.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:18PITT 4th & 22 at PSU 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:45PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:42PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:12PITT 4th & 10 at PSU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:23PSU 4th & 11 at PITT 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:41PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 13, down 11
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:03PITT 4th & 6 at PSU 6, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−4.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:25PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 30, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:26PITT 4th & 19 at PITT 25, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:04PSU 4th & 1 at PITT 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:34PSU 4th & 4 at PITT 6, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:36PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 31, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:01PITT 4th & 1 at PSU 34, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:11PITT 4th & 8 at PSU 8, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:53PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:20PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:32PSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:54PSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:09PITT Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:536% → 7%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
93.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+5
93.7%
Max Browne pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 5 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+2
93.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+42
93.3%
Max Browne pass intercepted Grant Haley return for 42 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:037% → 7%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
93.5%
Avonte Maddox run for 1 yd to the Pitt 18Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
93.4%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the Pitt 18Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
93.4%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Ruben Flowers IIISimilar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
93.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 40 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4493% → 93%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
93.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
93.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
93.3%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+46
93.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the PENNST 19 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Pitt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:477% → 7%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
93.2%
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+22
93.1%
Max Browne pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 22 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
93.0%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
92.9%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-9
92.9%
Max Browne sacked by Grant Haley for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 18
OWN 30
+16
93.0%
Ryan Winslow punt for 48 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 16 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:4393% → 94%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
93.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
93.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for no gain to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+36
92.9%
Trace McSorley run for 36 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
92.9%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
92.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+5
92.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Pitt 10Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
94.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
18 plays · 31 yds · 8:026% → 7%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
93.6%
Quadree Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
93.6%
Max Browne run for 4 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
93.5%
Max Browne pass complete to Jester Weah for 8 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
93.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
93.3%
Max Browne pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 5 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
93.2%
Max Browne pass complete to Matt Flanagan for 6 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
93.1%
Chawntez Moss run for 1 yd to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+3
93.1%
Chawntez Moss run for 3 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
93.0%
Max Browne pass complete to Jester Weah for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
92.9%
Chawntez Moss run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
92.9%
Chawntez Moss run for no gain to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+4
92.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-7
92.7%
Max Browne sacked by Shareef Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 17
OPP 39
-5
93.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Alex Officer) to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 22
OPP 44
0
93.2%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 22
OPP 44
0
93.3%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Chris ClarkSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 22
OPP 44
0
93.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 33 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:3394% → 93%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
93.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 6 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+16
93.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 16 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
93.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
93.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Jonathan Holland PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
93.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 10
OWN 33
-7
93.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 44 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:107% → 7%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
93.1%
Max Browne pass complete to Matt Flanagan for 5 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+12
93.1%
Max Browne pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 12 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
93.1%
Chawntez Moss run for 3 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
93.0%
Max Browne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+1
93.1%
Max Browne pass intercepted Troy Apke return for 1 yd to the PnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5394% → 93%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
93.8%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+5
93.4%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-7
93.3%
Trace McSorley sacked by Dewayne Hendrix for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 15
OWN 36
-6
92.9%
Blake Gillikin punt for 45 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11FG
18 plays · 77 yds · 5:307% → 8%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
93.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 17 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
92.9%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
93.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 12 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
92.8%
Max Browne pass complete to Quadree Henderson for no gain to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
92.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 4 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+7
92.7%
Chawntez Moss run for 7 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
92.4%
Max Browne pass complete to Jester Weah for 12 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
92.0%
Max Browne pass complete to Chawntez Moss for no gain to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
92.5%
Max Browne pass complete to Chawntez Moss for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Cam Brown) to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
92.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 7 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+7
91.7%
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
91.7%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the PnSt 10Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
91.3%
Max Browne pass complete to Qadree Ollison for no gain to the PnSt 10Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
91.8%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
91.7%
Alex Kessman 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:1292% → 92%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
92.1%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
92.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 4 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
92.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+2
91.9%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Dane Jackson return for 2 yds to the Pitt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:3291% → 91%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
91.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 17 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
91.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
91.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
91.8%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-5
91.4%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
90.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:429% → 9%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
90.9%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Pitt 5Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+8
90.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 8 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 2
OWN 13
0
91.0%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Matt FlanaganSimilar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 2
OWN 13
+14
91.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 47 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 14 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
1 play · 46 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
96.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 46 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:296% → 7%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
94.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+11
95.4%
Max Browne pass complete to Jester Weah for 11 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+32
95.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 32 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
94.7%
Maurice Ffrench run for 8 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+8
94.7%
Chawntez Moss run for 8 yds to the PnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
94.9%
Chawntez Moss run for 2 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
95.1%
Quadree Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 6Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.6%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Matt FlanaganSimilar
Q3 6:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
93.4%
Alex Kessman 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3895% → 96%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
94.9%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 22 Miles Sanders fumbled, forced by Oluwaseun Idowu, recovered by PnSt Miles SandersSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
95.0%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
95.6%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+13
95.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 49 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 13 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:596% → 5%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
93.9%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
94.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-5
94.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 33Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-8
94.6%
Max Browne sacked by Shareef Miller and Ryan Buchholz for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 19
OWN 25
+1
95.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 54 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:1997% → 99%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+37
96.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 22 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
96.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
96.6%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+18
96.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 18 yds to the Pitt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
96.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:271% → 5%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.9%
Chawntez Moss run for 11 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.0%
Chawntez Moss run for 1 yd to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+30
99.0%
Max Browne pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 30 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
98.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Darrin Hall for 13 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
98.9%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+8
98.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Matt Flanagan for 8 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.0%
Max Browne run for 2 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.5%
Ben Dinucci run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Dinucci pass to Qadree Ollison for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:5997% → 97%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
96.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 3 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-4
96.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+23
96.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 23 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
97.1%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+12
97.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 12 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
97.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 2 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
97.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 42 yds, downed at the Pitt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22SF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:113% → 3%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
97.0%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Darrin HallSimilar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 4
-4
97.2%
Max Browne pass complete for a SAFETY to Darrin Hall for a loss of 4 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:0998% → 99%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.9%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
97.9%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+19
98.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 19 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
98.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tommy Stevens for 1 yd to the Pitt 11Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+5
98.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
98.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
99.2%
Tyler Davis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24FUMBLE
18 plays · 58 yds · 3:231% → 1%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.6%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
98.6%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 8 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Matt FlanaganSimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
98.6%
Ben Dinucci run for 15 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
98.6%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 11 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
98.5%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 1 yd to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
98.4%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+8
98.5%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jester Weah for 8 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+6
98.2%
Chawntez Moss run for 6 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
98.0%
Ben Dinucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+21
98.1%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jester Weah for 21 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.0%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Chris ClarkSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
98.0%
Ben Dinucci run for 3 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
98.2%
Ben Dinucci sacked by Koa Farmer for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
-9
99.3%
Ben Dinucci sacked by Robert Windsor for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 17 Ben Dinucci fumbled, forced by Robert Windsor, recovered by PnSt Robert Windsor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:32
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 46 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q4 10:09
Ben Dinucci run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Dinucci pass to Qadree Ollison for Two-Point Conversion)
-3.4
FG · Q3 6:03
Alex Kessman 24 yd FG GOOD
-2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com