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WMU

Western Michigan 14 at Michigan State 28

MSU
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFUMBLETDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:57 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Pregame prior+17.7Home team on offense+3.4Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:04: Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q3 8:43: Hunter Rison run for a loss of 2 yards Hunter Rison fumbled, forced by Darius Phillips, recovered by WMich Darius Phillips , return for 67 yds, (Josh Grant KICK) — WMU win probability +7.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:43: Derrick Mitchell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — WMU win probability +5.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:07: Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:48: LJ Scott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WMU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 11:56MSU 4th & 8 at WMU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:33WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:37WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00WMU 4th & 2 at MSU 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:57MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 35, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:08WMU 4th & 22 at WMU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:52WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:27MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:08WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:53MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:54WMU 4th & 1 at MSU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−2.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:01WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:04MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:35WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:49MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.4%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:30MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:03WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:03WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:10WMU 4th & 3 at MSU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−1.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:10WMU 4th & 1 at MSU 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:43MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:04MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:07MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:48MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:37WMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1INT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.4%
Jon Wassink pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 6 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
74.4%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 8 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
74.4%
Jon Wassink run for 3 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
74.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 9 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
74.4%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
74.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
74.4%
Jon Wassink pass intercepted Josiah Scott return for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
73.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+16
73.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 16 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
74.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 13 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
74.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
74.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trishton Jackson, broken up by Darius PhillipsSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
74.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trishton JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
73.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
73.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 6Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+9
73.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 9 yds to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
73.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the WMich 20Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+3
73.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 2
OWN 23
-2
73.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 21Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
73.5%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 48 yds , Darrell Stewart Jr. returns for no gain to the MchSt 21 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the MchSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:3772% → 76%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
72.4%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
72.5%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+5
72.3%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
72.5%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Jackson, T., PENALTY WMU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the MSU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 5
OWN 39
+61
75.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 61 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
75.1%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 5 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-5
74.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WMich 24Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
75.2%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Anton CurtisSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+5
75.4%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 5 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
75.6%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 50 yds, downed at the MchSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
75.4%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 6 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
75.6%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
75.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
75.5%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Darius Phillips return for no gain to the WMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:4525% → 26%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
74.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 5 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+15
74.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 15 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
74.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the WMich 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
74.3%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+7
74.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 7 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
74.5%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+17
75.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 17 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
75.6%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Stewart, D., PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the MSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+17
75.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 17 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+1
76.1%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
75.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
74.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
75.1%
Jon Wassink sacked by Josh Butler and Chris Frey for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 16Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 14
OWN 16
-11
75.4%
Jon Wassink sacked by Andrew Dowell for a loss of 11 yards to the WMich 5Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 25
OWN 5
+3
76.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the WMich 8Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 22
OWN 8
+5
76.4%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 48 yds , Darrell Stewart Jr. returns for 5 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:5777% → 84%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
77.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 12 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
77.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Madre London for 3 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+5
77.3%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
76.8%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the WMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
77.4%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
77.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis III, broken up by Darius PhillipsSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+11
76.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 11 yds to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
77.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Madre LondonSimilar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
83.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
81.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-7
81.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 7 yards to the WMich 47Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 15
OWN 47
0
82.1%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni RicciSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
82.4%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 45 yds, downed at the MchSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
82.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+6
82.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
83.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+10
83.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 10 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
83.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
83.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for no gain to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
82.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Gerald HolmesSimilar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
82.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:5516% → 15%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
83.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 13 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
83.5%
Jon Wassink run for no gain to the WMich 42Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-4
84.7%
Jon Wassink sacked by Brandon Randle for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 38Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+10
85.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 10 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
85.0%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
87.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
85.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+5
85.8%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 20
-3
85.3%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Nick Matich for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 17Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
84.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds, downed at the WMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
85.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
84.4%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni Ricci, broken up by Josiah ScottSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+9
85.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
50
+3
84.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
84.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+3
84.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
84.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the MchSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 1:1789% → 82%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
88.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 25 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
88.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+67
81.7%
Hunter Rison run for a loss of 2 yards Hunter Rison fumbled, forced by Darius Phillips, recovered by WMich Darius Phillips , return for 67 yds, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3679% → 91%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
79.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 16 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
80.9%
Madre London run for 8 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
81.2%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 1
50
+3
80.5%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+46
81.3%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 46 yds to the WMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
87.9%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Anton CurtisSimilar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+12
88.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 12 yds to the WMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-8
87.8%
Jon Wassink sacked by Raequan Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 15Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 18
OWN 15
0
88.1%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni RicciSimilar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+10
88.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 10 yds to the WMich 25Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+15
88.3%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 44 yds , Laress Nelson returns for 15 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
91.4%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+6
91.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
90.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trishton Jackson, broken up by Darius PhillipsSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
90.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 yds, downed at the WMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
90.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 7 yds to the WMich 16Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+16
89.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for 16 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
89.0%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to D'Wayne Eskridge, broken up by Matt MorrisseySimilar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-3
89.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jamauri Bogan for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 29Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
90.2%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Anton CurtisSimilar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 13
OWN 29
+3
90.4%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 50 yds , Laress Nelson returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 4:5993% → 99%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
93.3%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+13
93.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 13 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MchSt Brian LewerkeSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+6
93.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+4
93.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 45 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+44
93.7%
LJ Scott run for 44 yds to the WMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
94.6%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the WMich 9Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+7
94.6%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the WMich 2Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
99.2%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
95.0%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+14
95.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 14 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
95.4%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
50
-1
95.4%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-7
95.2%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Asantay Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 42 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by MchSt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
94.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25DOWNS
18 plays · 53 yds · 3:077% → 4%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
92.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
92.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
92.6%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keishawn Watson, broken up by Khari WillisSimilar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+7
93.6%
Jon Wassink run for 7 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
93.1%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
93.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
93.1%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 8
OWN 46
+15
93.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 15 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
92.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
92.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 9 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 1
OPP 30
-2
92.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+8
96.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 8 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
96.3%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
96.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 8 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
96.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
96.4%
Jamauri Bogan pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for no gain to the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0899% → 99%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
98.7%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+2
98.9%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+18
99.1%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 18 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.1%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.1%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+1
99.1%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:07
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+9.2
FUMBLE · Q3 8:43
Hunter Rison run for a loss of 2 yards Hunter Rison fumbled, forced by Darius Phillips, recovered by WMich Darius Phillips , return for 67 yds, (Josh Grant KICK)
-7
TD · Q2 6:04
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com