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CIN

Cincinnati 14 at Michigan 36

MICH
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:19 · James Smith punt for 37 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the Mich 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Cincy Tyrell Gilbert
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior+44.3Home team on offense+3.7Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:13: Mike Boone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +0.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:15: Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +6.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 3:01: Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 33 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +6.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:02: Quinn Nordin 24 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +5.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:21: Hayden Moore pass intercepted for a TD Lavert Hill return for 24 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 10CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:43CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:39MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:19CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:03MICH 4th & 10 at CIN 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:59CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:40CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 39, down 10
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:02MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:17CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:23MICH 4th & 5 at CIN 47, up 10
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:15MICH 4th & 18 at MICH 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−2.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:42CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:35MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:09CIN 4th & 10 at MICH 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:53CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:21MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:15CIN 4th & 12 at MICH 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:30MICH 4th & 8 at CIN 32, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    91.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:02MICH 4th & 4 at CIN 6, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−4.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:35MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 40, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:54CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 41, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:54MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:50MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:13CIN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:15CIN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:01MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:21MICH Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:5398% → 98%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.7%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
97.7%
Ty Isaac run for 4 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+13
97.6%
Ty Isaac run for 13 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
97.6%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
97.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for no gain to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+14
97.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 14 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
97.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 43 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:063% → 3%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tyler CogswellSimilar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 6 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
97.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.4%
James Smith punt for 29 yds, downed at the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5697% → 97%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
97.4%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 41Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
97.3%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+1
97.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+1
97.1%
Will Hart punt for 45 yds , Devin Gray returns for 1 yd to the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4INT TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:283% → 3%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
97.1%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 14Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+3
97.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 3 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 6
OWN 17
-5
97.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 12Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+28
97.4%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted for a TD Tyree Kinnel return for 28 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:183% → 3%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-8
97.2%
Hayden Moore sacked by Devin Bush for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
James Smith punt for 37 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the Mich 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Cincy Tyrell GilbertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:033% → 4%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
97.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to JJ PinckneySimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+11
97.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 11 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
97.0%
Mike Boone run for 16 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
97.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Jerron RollinsSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
97.0%
Hayden Moore run for 6 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+3
97.0%
Moore, Hayden pass incomplete to Lewis, Kahlil, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Hill, Lavert) 3 yards to the MICHIGAN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.Similar
Q1 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.9%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the Mich 1Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.9%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Mich 1Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-15
96.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mike Boone) to the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 2:5896% → 96%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
96.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the Mich 25Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+18
96.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 18 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
96.4%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+44
96.2%
Donovan Peoples-Jones run for 44 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
96.3%
Chris Evans run for 10 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
96.2%
Wilton Speight run for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 10 Wilton Speight fumbled, recovered by Mich Wilton SpeightSimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
96.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
96.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
96.0%
Quinn Nordin 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:594% → 4%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 15 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
95.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-8
95.8%
Hayden Moore sacked by Tyree Kinnel for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
96.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+11
96.0%
James Smith punt for 33 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 11 yds to the Mich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:1896% → 96%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
95.9%
Ty Isaac run for 11 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.9%
Wilton Speight run for no gain to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
95.8%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+13
95.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 13 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
95.8%
Wilton Speight run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 33 Wilton Speight fumbled, recovered by Cincy Cortez BroughtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:475% → 5%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
95.4%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
95.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
95.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+9
95.4%
James Smith punt for 40 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 9 yds to the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2795% → 95%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
95.3%
Wilton Speight sacked by Cortez Broughton for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 22Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+6
95.3%
Ty Isaac run for 6 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+11
95.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for 11 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
95.2%
Will Hart punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:395% → 5%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
95.2%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
95.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-6
95.2%
Hayden Moore sacked by Khaleke Hudson for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+48
95.2%
James Smith punt for 48 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4795% → 95%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
95.1%
Ty Isaac run for 4 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
95.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Zach Gentry for 5 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
94.9%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
95.0%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+7
95.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Sean McKeon for 7 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
95.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
94.7%
Will Hart punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Devin Gray at the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14DOWNS
16 plays · 53 yds · 2:155% → 6%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
94.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the Cincy 13Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
94.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+20
94.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 20 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
94.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 25 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
93.7%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
93.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-1
94.0%
Hayden Moore sacked by Khaleke Hudson for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 11
OPP 39
+10
94.5%
Moore, Hayden pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (McCray, Mike) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.Similar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
93.1%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
93.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 15
OPP 34
0
93.8%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+51
94.3%
Josh Pasley 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:386% → 14%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
93.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
93.8%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+15
93.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 15 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
93.8%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+7
93.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 7 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
93.2%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+46
93.3%
Hayden Moore run for 46 yds to the Mich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
92.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 2 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
85.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:4589% → 87%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
88.5%
Ty Isaac run for 8 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+8
88.8%
Ty Isaac run for 8 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
88.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Tyrone Wheatley for 7 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
89.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
88.6%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 3
OWN 43
-15
88.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nolan Ulizio) to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+5
86.7%
Will Hart punt for 45 yds , Devin Gray returns for 5 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2314% → 14%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
86.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 4 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
85.6%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
84.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
86.2%
James Smith punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Grant Perry at the Mich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0587% → 84%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-9
87.0%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 27 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nate Schoenle) to the Mich 17Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 19
OWN 17
+3
86.4%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 16
OWN 20
+6
86.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 6 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-1
85.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 25Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
84.3%
Will Hart punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1918% → 15%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
82.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
82.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
83.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
84.6%
James Smith punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Grant Perry at the Mich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:0385% → 93%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
85.4%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+36
84.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Zach Gentry for 36 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
86.6%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
86.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Sean McKeon for 6 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+5
85.8%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
86.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
92.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 33 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:598% → 7%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
91.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 7 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
90.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
92.7%
James Smith punt for 49 yds, downed at the Mich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2493% → 92%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
92.7%
Ty Isaac run for 9 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+3
93.0%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
92.9%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
92.6%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:28
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
92.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Zach GentrySimilar
Q4 14:21
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
91.9%
Will Hart punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:008% → 7%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
92.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Rashan Gary) to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
91.4%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
91.6%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
92.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
93.1%
James Smith punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Grant Perry at the Mich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24FG
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:0492% → 97%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+53
92.3%
Ty Isaac run for 53 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
93.6%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Khalid HillSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
93.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+2
93.1%
Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+20
92.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 20 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
93.3%
Wilton Speight run for 5 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
93.4%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-2
92.8%
Ty Isaac run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
97.1%
Quinn Nordin 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25SF
6 plays · -25 yds · 1:514% → 3%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
96.5%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
96.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 6 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
96.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Will Steur) to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
96.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 9 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-33
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 33 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5199% → 99%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
98.5%
Ty Isaac run for 4 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-2
98.6%
Ty Isaac run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+2
98.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 2 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
98.5%
Will Hart punt for 47 yds , Devin Gray returns for no gain to the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+24
99.5%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted for a TD Lavert Hill return for 24 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:191% → 1%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.5%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.5%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.5%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 35Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+3
99.5%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+3
99.5%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
99.5%
James Smith punt for 47 yds, downed at the Mich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
99.8%
O'Maury Samuels run for 3 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:15
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)
-6.5
TD · Q3 3:01
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 33 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)
+6.4
FG · Q4 9:02
Quinn Nordin 24 yd FG GOOD
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com