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NU

Northwestern 17 at Duke 41

DUKE
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:18: Chris Taylor 52 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick) — DUKE win probability +7.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:15: Daniel Jones 4 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick) — DUKE win probability +7.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:33: Justin Jackson 5 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick) — NU win probability +8.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:54: Austin Parker 31 Yd Field Goal — DUKE win probability +4.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:08: Davis Koppenhaver 1 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick) — DUKE win probability +8.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:13NU 4th & 20 at NU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:56DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:28NU 4th & 9 at DUKE 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:20NU 4th & 19 at NU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00NU 4th & 9 at NU 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:34NU 4th & 16 at NU 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:44DUKE 4th & 25 at NU 33, up 18
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:14NU 4th & 8 at NU 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:18DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:54DUKE 4th & 4 at NU 13, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.6%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−7.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:18NU 4th & 9 at NU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:52NU 4th & 11 at NU 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:07DUKE 4th & 6 at NU 6, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:52DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:18DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:15DUKE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:33NU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:08DUKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:07DUKE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:05NU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3752% → 51%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
48.5%
Jelani Roberts run for 15 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
48.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
48.6%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-10
48.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Ben Humphreys for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
49.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1149% → 49%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
48.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-2
49.1%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
48.9%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
48.9%
Austin Parker punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:1751% → 51%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
48.9%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+9
48.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 9 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
48.7%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
48.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+11
48.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 11 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
48.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 11 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
48.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 1 yd to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
48.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
49.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
49.0%
Charlie Kuhbander 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4INT
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:1049% → 50%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+32
49.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 32 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
49.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 11 yds Daniel Helm fumbled, forced by Godwin Igwebuike, recovered by Duke Daniel Helm for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
49.7%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
49.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
49.8%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Montre Hartage return for no gain to the Nwest 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:3051% → 50%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+24
49.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 24 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
48.8%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
48.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-10
49.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Alonzo Saxton II for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 19
OWN 28
0
49.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 52 yds, downed at the Duke 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:2249% → 55%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
49.0%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
49.5%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
48.7%
Quentin Harris run for 7 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
49.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 15 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
50.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
50.3%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+2
50.2%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
50.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 1 yd to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+16
50.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 16 yds to the Nwest 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
51.0%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+10
51.0%
Daniel Jones run for 10 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
51.2%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST down. NORTHWESTERN Jared McGee disqualified for TargetingSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
51.2%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 11Similar
Q1 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
51.2%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
54.6%
Daniel Jones 11 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4147% → 46%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
53.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
53.1%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 16Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
53.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
54.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 58 yds, downed at the Duke 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:3753% → 62%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
53.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+7
53.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 7 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
54.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 4 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+6
54.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 6 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
62.3%
Chris Taylor 52 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:1640% → 39%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
60.2%
Riley Lees run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+8
60.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 8 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
61.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 8 yds Cameron Green fumbled, forced by Alonzo Saxton II, recovered by Duke Alonzo Saxton II at Nwest 37, Alonzo Saxton II for no gain to the Nwest 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:3464% → 75%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
63.5%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
63.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Brittain Brown for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+12
63.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 12 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
64.3%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
64.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+11
64.7%
Daniel Jones run for 11 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
65.3%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Nwest 4Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
65.6%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.3%
Daniel Jones 4 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2827% → 25%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
73.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
73.7%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-14
73.3%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Mike Ramsay for a loss of 14 yards to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 16
OWN 24
+7
74.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 48 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 7 yds to the Duke 31 DUKE Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · 42 yds · 3:4176% → 77%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
76.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 16 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
76.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 2 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
77.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 5 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+6
77.1%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
77.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 11 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
78.4%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+11
78.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 11 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
79.2%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
79.5%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 20
OPP 28
0
78.5%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 20
OPP 28
-5
78.1%
DUKE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 25
OPP 33
0
78.2%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 25
OPP 33
0
77.2%
Austin Parker punt for 33 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2623% → 22%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
77.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 2 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
77.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
78.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
78.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Shaun Wilson at the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3379% → 81%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
78.8%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
78.8%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+16
78.3%
Daniel Jones run for 16 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
80.2%
Brittain Brown run for 5 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-2
80.6%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 46 Brittain Brown fumbled, forced by Kyle Queiro, recovered by Nwest Paddy FisherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 0:5021% → 32%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
78.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 7 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+15
77.4%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
76.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
76.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+13
76.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jalen Brown for 13 yds to the Duke 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
68.2%
Justin Jackson 5 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0473% → 74%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
72.6%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-2
74.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3873% → 71%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
72.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-6
71.9%
Daniel Jones sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 22 Daniel Jones fumbled, recovered by Duke Shaun Wilson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
71.4%
Austin Parker punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:0229% → 29%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
70.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 9 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
70.4%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
71.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
71.3%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Mark Gilbert return for no gain to the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:0375% → 82%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
74.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 7 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+16
76.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 16 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
76.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 12 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
77.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 14 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
77.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 3
OPP 12
-1
77.2%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 13Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
76.8%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
81.6%
Austin Parker 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:2219% → 18%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
80.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Nwest 14Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+12
81.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jalen Brown for 12 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
81.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 1 yd to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
81.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
81.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
82.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Shaun Wilson at the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:0484% → 97%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.6%
Brittain Brown run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
84.6%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
84.4%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
85.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 10 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
86.0%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
86.1%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+13
85.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 13 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
86.9%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
86.9%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+16
87.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 16 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
88.0%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
88.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+9
87.9%
Quentin Harris run for 9 yds to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.5%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Nwest 1Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.6%
Davis Koppenhaver 1 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:074% → 3%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
95.8%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Drew Jordan for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 18Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+5
96.4%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
96.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
96.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
96.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 59 yds, downed at the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 6:3797% → 100%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
97.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+11
97.4%
Daniel Jones run for 11 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
97.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+1
97.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+17
97.8%
Daniel Jones run for 17 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
98.1%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+2
98.1%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+15
98.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
98.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+7
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
98.5%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+2
98.6%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+6
98.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Shaun Wilson 8 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Mark Gilbert return for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 4:47100% → 100%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.8%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
99.9%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
99.9%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
99.9%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 22Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+7
99.9%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+10
99.9%
Brittain Brown run for 10 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Nwest 5Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
99.9%
Quentin Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 6Similar
Q4 5:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
99.9%
Austin Parker 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:550% → 1%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
99.9%
Matt Alviti pass complete to Cody Link for 15 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
99.9%
Matt Alviti pass complete to Cody Link for 14 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Matt Alviti pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.3%
Riley Lees 20 Yd pass from Matt Alviti (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27END OF GAME
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:43100% → 100%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.5%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
99.5%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+3
99.6%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+5
99.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.7%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
99.7%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:33
Justin Jackson 5 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)
-8.5
TD · Q3 3:08
Davis Koppenhaver 1 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)
+8.1
TD · Q2 9:15
Daniel Jones 4 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com