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LOU

Louisville 35 at Purdue 28

PUR
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Lucas Oil Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:04 · Mason King punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Pregame prior−16.1Home team on offense−9.7Garbage-time factor−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.4Score differential−3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:39: David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 2 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK) — PUR win probability +15.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:29: Reggie Bonnafon 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — LOU win probability +15.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:18: David Blough pass intercepted for a TD Stacy Thomas return for 61 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — LOU win probability +16.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 10:48: Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK) — PUR win probability +29.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:01: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 20 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +28.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 9LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 9:45PUR 4th & 13 at PUR 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:42PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:19LOU 4th & 1 at PUR 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:48PUR 4th & 6 at LOU 36, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.6%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:17LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:36PUR 4th & 11 at PUR 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:31LOU 4th & 3 at PUR 15, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%−0.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:04PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 34, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:04LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 29, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:34PUR 4th & 19 at PUR 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−4.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:18LOU 4th & 13 at PUR 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−4.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−15.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:30PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.8%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:33PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.8%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:14LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:38PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 7:27PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:39LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:51PUR Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:39PUR Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:29LOU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:18LOU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:48PUR Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:01LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1FUMBLE
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:2694% → 93%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
5.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
6.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+18
6.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 18 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
6.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-5
6.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Jaylen Smith) to the Prdue 30Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+26
6.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 22 yds to the Prdue 8 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Roughing Passer (Eddy Wilson) to the Prdue 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
6.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Lukayus McNeil) to the Prdue 9Similar
Q1 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
6.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Prdue 8Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
6.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Prdue 2Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+32
6.9%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 37 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Prdue Danny Ezechukwu , return for 32 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:377% → 8%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
7.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
7.1%
Tario Fuller run for 1 yd to the Prdue 38Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-4
7.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Tario Fuller for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 34Similar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+6
7.5%
Joe Schopper punt for 56 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 6 yds to the Lvile 40 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Lvile 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3692% → 92%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
7.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 11
-1
7.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 10Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 6
OWN 10
-1
7.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 9Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 7
OWN 9
0
8.5%
Mason King punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:269% → 10%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
8.6%
Sindelar, Elijah pass incomplete, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Alexander, Jaire) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
8.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Anthony MahoungouSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
8.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Isaac ZicoSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+26
9.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 26 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:4691% → 91%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
9.3%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+21
9.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 21 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
9.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 15 yds to the Prdue 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
9.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 33Similar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+12
9.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Malik Williams for 12 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+8
9.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Prdue 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
10.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 8 yds to the Prdue 5Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+2
10.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Prdue 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
9.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jordan Davis for 3 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5310% → 10%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
10.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
10.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 7 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
10.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
10.2%
Joe Schopper punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7FUMBLE
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:2190% → 89%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
10.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+14
10.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 14 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
10.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+33
10.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Micky Crum for 18 yds to the PURDUE 45 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
10.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
10.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Prdue 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
10.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
10.6%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the Prdue 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
11.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Prdue 6Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+23
11.0%
Blanton Creque 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8FUMBLE
10 plays · 14 yds · 3:2889% → 88%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
10.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Geron Christian) to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+7
10.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Prdue 13Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+4
11.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Prdue 9Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+8
11.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 8 yds to the Prdue 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
11.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Charles Standberry) to the Prdue 6Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
11.7%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Prdue 6Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
11.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the Prdue 1Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
12.4%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Prdue 20 Jeremy Smith fumbled, recovered by Prdue Markus Bailey , return for 19 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:5214% → 15%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
13.6%
Blough, David pass incomplete to Mahoungou, Anthony, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference 15 yards to the PURDUE35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
14.0%
David Blough pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 7 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
15.0%
Tario Fuller run for 6 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
15.4%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 4 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
15.7%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 8 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
15.9%
D.J. Knox run for 6 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-2
15.9%
Tario Fuller run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
15.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Brycen HopkinsSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+7
15.0%
J.D. Dellinger 53 yd FG BLOCKED , Jaire Alexander return for 7 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:2386% → 84%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
14.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 11 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
14.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
14.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 6 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
14.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+3
15.6%
Mason King punt for 47 yds , Jackson Anthrop returns for 3 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:1915% → 29%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
15.1%
David Blough sacked by Trevon Young for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 21Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+9
15.3%
David Blough pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 9 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+5
15.4%
David Blough run for 5 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
16.1%
David Blough pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 9 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+9
18.0%
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 9 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
18.2%
D.J. Knox run for 13 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
19.0%
David Blough pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 15 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
19.5%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 11 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
19.7%
D.J. Knox run for 4 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
20.4%
Richie Worship run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 8Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
28.6%
David Blough pass complete to Richie Worship for 8 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 61 yds · 0:2973% → 75%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
27.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 29 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
23.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 11 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
22.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
22.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+21
24.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 21 yds to the Prdue 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5927% → 27%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
27.4%
Tario Fuller run for 5 yds to the Prdue 17Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
27.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Isaac ZicoSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-6
27.0%
David Blough sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 6 yards to the Prdue 11Similar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+33
26.7%
Joe Schopper punt for 44 yds , Reggie Bonnafon returns for 33 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5976% → 74%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
24.2%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Prdue 22Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
24.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Prdue 15Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
25.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
26.0%
Blanton Creque 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1729% → 29%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
28.5%
Brian Lankford-Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 24Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
28.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
27.4%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 10 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
28.7%
Joe Schopper punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Reggie Bonnafon at the Lvile 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:3171% → 70%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
29.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 2 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+14
29.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 14 yds Jaylen Smith fumbled, recovered by PrdueSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:4434% → 52%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
33.9%
D.J. Knox run for 2 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+19
34.3%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 19 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
35.9%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 13 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
36.8%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for 4 yds to the Lvile 2Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.0%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 2 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:0654% → 71%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
46.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 13 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
45.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 7 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-5
44.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
46.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+16
46.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 16 yds to the Prdue 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
43.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
46.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 9 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
46.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
45.0%
Jackson, Lamar pass incomplete to Smith, Jaylen, PENALTY PURDUE Targeting (Lorenzo Neal EJECTED) 15 yards to the PURDUE18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE. Similar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
44.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Micky Crum) to the Prdue 23Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+10
45.4%
Jackson, Lamar pass incomplete to Samuel, Traveon, PENALTY PURDUE pass interference (Bailey, Markus) 10 yards to the PURDUE13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
44.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 3 yds to the Prdue 10Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
28.9%
Reggie Bonnafon 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19INT TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:4737% → 26%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
36.5%
David Blough run for 8 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
38.5%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 6 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
39.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to Anthony MahoungouSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+16
38.6%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 16 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
42.4%
David Blough pass complete to Isaac Zico for 3 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+61
25.6%
David Blough pass intercepted for a TD Stacy Thomas return for 61 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20INT
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:3623% → 26%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
22.5%
Tario Fuller run for 9 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
25.2%
Tario Fuller run for 2 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
25.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Jarrett Burgess, broken up by Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
24.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Tario FullerSimilar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+22
23.0%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 22 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
28.3%
Fuller, Tario rush for 6 yards to the LOUISVILLE26, PENALTY PURDUE holding (Hermanns, Grant) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 20
OPP 42
0
25.4%
David Blough sacked by Trevon Young and Drew Bailey for 0 yards to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 20
OPP 42
+5
25.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 15
OPP 37
0
25.8%
David Blough pass intercepted, touchback. TreSean Smith return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2679% → 78%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
21.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
20.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Malik Williams for 5 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-5
20.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Mekhi Becton) to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
22.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 5 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
22.3%
Mason King punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Prdue 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:0225% → 64%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
25.4%
Tario Fuller run for 8 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
28.5%
Tario Fuller run for no gain to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
27.7%
Jackson Anthrop run for 4 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
29.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 13 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
31.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 5 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+8
31.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 8 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
33.9%
Sindelar, Elijah pass incomplete to Anthrop, Jackson, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Washington, Trumaine) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
33.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Brycen Hopkins, broken up by Stacy ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
63.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4148% → 83%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+39
54.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 39 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
45.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
45.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
17.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 20 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:1628% → 25%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
27.7%
Elijah Sindelar sacked by Trumaine Washington for a loss of 8 yards to the Prdue 12Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 18
OWN 12
-1
27.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to D.J. Knox for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 11Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 19
OWN 11
0
26.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Cole Herdman, broken up by Dorian EtheridgeSimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
25.2%
Joe Schopper punt for 48 yds , Reggie Bonnafon returns for no gain to the Lvile 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:1582% → 89%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
17.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+4
19.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+3
18.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+21
18.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 21 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
16.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Prdue 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
14.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 13 yds to the Prdue 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
14.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Reggie Bonnafon) to the Prdue 13Similar
Q4 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
0
14.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, broken up by Danny EzechukwuSimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
14.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
15.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
11.4%
Blanton Creque 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26INT
14 plays · 48 yds · 1:5317% → 22%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+13
16.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 13 yds to the Prdue 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
17.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 12 yds to the Prdue 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
18.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Anthony MahoungouSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
17.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+5
16.1%
Sindelar, Elijah pass incomplete to Hopkins, Brycen (Cannon, Zykiesis), PENALTY LOUISVILLE offside (Robinson, G.G.) 5 yards to the PURDUE34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
17.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Darius Pittman, broken up by Trevon YoungSimilar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 5
OWN 34
+7
16.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 7 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
20.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
19.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 3 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
19.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Tario FullerSimilar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+8
16.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 8 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
21.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Tario FullerSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
21.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass intercepted Chucky Williams return for no gain to the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 1:0391% → 95%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
8.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
8.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
6.3%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+6
5.1%
Mason King punt for 47 yds , Jackson Anthrop returns for 6 yds to the Prdue 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3310% → 7%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
9.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Brycen HopkinsSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
9.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Tario Fuller for 6 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
8.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jackson Anthrop, broken up by Zykiesis CannonSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+1
7.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Tario Fuller for 1 yd to the Prdue 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
3.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:48
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK)
+29.8
TD · Q4 9:01
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 20 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-28.2
TD · Q3 3:18
David Blough pass intercepted for a TD Stacy Thomas return for 61 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com