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NEV

Nevada 20 at Northwestern 31

NU
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:36 · Ty Gangi punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior+25.6Home team on offense−9.4Garbage-time factor−3.5Score differential−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:48: Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 41 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +4.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:16: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 19 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +14.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:13: Spencer Pettit 33 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +13.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:28: Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +39.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:52: Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00NU 4th & 20 at NU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:01NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:10NU 4th & 13 at NU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:25NU 4th & 3 at NEV 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56NU 4th & 4 at NEV 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:56NEV 4th & 3 at NU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:08NU 4th & 7 at NU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:41NU 4th & 3 at NEV 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%−1.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    81.8%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:41NU 4th & 2 at NEV 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:36NEV 4th & 8 at NU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:53NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:36NU 4th & 6 at NEV 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−7.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:36NEV 4th & 6 at NU 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:09NEV 4th & 4 at NU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−3.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00NU 4th & 7 at NEV 27, tied
    Close callWent for it · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−8.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:13NEV 4th & 9 at NU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−2.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−19.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:28NU 4th & 1 at NEV 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−5.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−28.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:21NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.5%−7.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:45NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:13NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:31NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:48NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:16NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:28NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:52NU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
94.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
94.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 1 yd to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-15
94.5%
Thorson, C. pass complete to Dickerson, G. for 13 yards to the NU41 (SAWYER, Jaden), PENALTY NU pass interference (Dickerson, G.) 15 yards to the NU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 13
+1
94.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 1 yd to the Nwest 14Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 14
+13
94.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 54 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for 13 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
94.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+1
94.1%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+5
94.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 5 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
94.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 35 yds, downed at the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
93.6%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
93.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 5 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-9
93.6%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Gabriel Sewell and Austin Paulhus for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 17Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+5
93.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 45 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for 5 yds to the Nevad 43 Kaleb Fossum fumbled, forced by Warren Long, recovered by Nwest Auston AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:0693% → 94%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
93.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
93.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 8 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-5
93.4%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+8
93.3%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
93.4%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 33Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+33
93.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 33 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:427% → 8%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
93.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.3%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+20
93.3%
Ty Gangi run for 5 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, late hit (Godwin Igwebuike) to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
93.2%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+31
93.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 31 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
91.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 11 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6MISSED FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 5:2992% → 91%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
92.1%
Justin Jackson run for 13 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
92.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 7 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+9
92.3%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
92.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 7 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
92.3%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+15
92.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 15 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
92.4%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
92.4%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+6
92.3%
Jeremy Larkin run for 6 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
92.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
91.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 6Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
91.4%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
90.8%
Charlie Kuhbander 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.1%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
90.1%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
90.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 8 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
90.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 9 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
89.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
89.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
89.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+7
89.9%
Kelton Moore run for 7 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
89.8%
Ty Gangi punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
89.5%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 3Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+4
89.5%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
89.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
89.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 44 yds, downed at the Nevad 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 0:5513% → 17%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
87.5%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
87.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+3
87.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
83.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 41 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10FUMBLE
15 plays · 70 yds · 0:0084% → 85%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
84.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 5 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+6
84.5%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
84.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+10
84.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 10 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
85.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 4
50
+4
85.5%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+6
85.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 6 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
86.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 6 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-1
86.1%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+3
85.5%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+15
85.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 15 yds Bennett Skowronek fumbled, forced by Asauni Rufus, recovered by Nevad Vosean CrumbieSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
85.5%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 47Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+4
85.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+4
85.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 2:2523% → 31%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
76.8%
Ty Gangi run for 3 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
76.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+19
77.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brandon Scott for 19 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
75.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 12 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
74.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jaxson KincaideSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
74.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+35
75.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 35 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
74.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 7 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
69.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 3
OPP 9
-5
69.4%
NEVADA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
69.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
69.0%
Spencer Pettit 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin Jackson, broken up by Austin PaulhusSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
69.0%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
69.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
69.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Kyle QueiroSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
70.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
70.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:3169% → 70%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
68.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
68.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 10 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
69.5%
Jelani Roberts run for 11 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
70.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+3
70.6%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
70.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 16 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.6%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 6Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Asauni RufusSimilar
Q3 14:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
69.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 11:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
69.7%
Charlie Kuhbander 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
66.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 24 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
64.2%
McLane Mannix run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 9
50
+3
64.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 3 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
64.4%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
65.8%
Ty Gangi punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:2866% → 81%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
66.0%
Jelani Roberts run for 5 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
67.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 1 yd to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
66.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 5 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
67.9%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 1
50
+5
69.2%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Wilson, Macan, PENALTY NEV 12 men on the field 5 yards to the NEV45, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
69.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+2
67.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+28
66.7%
Clayton Thorson run for 13 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, late hit (Elijah Moody) to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
81.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 19 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0025% → 27%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
74.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+7
74.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 7 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
74.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+10
74.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 10 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
73.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 12 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
71.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 8
50
+4
71.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 4 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
71.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brandon Scott, broken up by Alex MillerSimilar
Q3 6:09
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
73.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 42 yds, downed at the Nwest 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:4574% → 73%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
73.6%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 4Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+3
73.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+63
72.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 48 yds to the NORTHWSTRN 45 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
78.7%
Jackson, Justin rush for 5 yards to the NEV25 (RUFUS, Asauni), PENALTY NU holding (Vogel, Gunnar) 10 yards to the NEV40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+4
76.6%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+2
76.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+7
73.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 7 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 27
0
73.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19INT
5 plays · 52 yds · 0:0032% → 38%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
67.6%
Kelton Moore run for 13 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
65.3%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt (McShepard, M.), PENALTY NU pass interference (McShepard, M.) 15 yards to the NU45, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
63.5%
Kelton Moore run for 13 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
62.1%
Ty Gangi run for 11 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
61.7%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Kyle Queiro return for no gain to the Nwest 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
69.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 3Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+3
69.2%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+3
67.5%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Elijah Moody return for 3 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1842% → 53%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
57.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
57.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Brian BullockSimilar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-3
59.7%
Ty Gangi run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
46.7%
Spencer Pettit 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4552% → 84%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
51.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, illegal block (Riley Lees) to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
55.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+12
55.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 12 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
57.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 15 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
59.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 26 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
59.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
59.8%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 4Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
57.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 3 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q4 5:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
71.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
69.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+3
69.5%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 1
OWN 48
-1
70.7%
Griffin Dahn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:3789% → 98%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
89.0%
Jackson, Justin rush for 4 yards to the NEV43 (SEWELL, Gabe), PENALTY NU holding (Doles, Tommy) 10 yards to the NU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+3
87.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+10
88.2%
Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+41
90.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 41 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
92.7%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 2Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 1Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
97.7%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
97.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kelton MooreSimilar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
97.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:28
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+39.4
TD · Q3 6:16
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 19 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+14.2
FG · Q4 10:13
Spencer Pettit 33 yd FG GOOD
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com