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BGSU

Bowling Green 10 at Michigan State 35

MSU
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:21 · Joseph Davidson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior+5.1Home team on offense+33.1Score differential+15.8Garbage-time factor+11.3Blowout margin+13.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:19: Madre London run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:10: LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 49 — MSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:04: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:46: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6BGSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 9:29BGSU 4th & 5 at MSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:59MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:09BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:38BGSU 4th & 2 at MSU 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:42BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:02MSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:35BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:39BGSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:22BGSU 4th & 21 at BGSU 1, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:30BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:46MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 29, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:14BGSU 4th & 3 at MSU 37, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:31MSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 39, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:21BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 43, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:36MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 30, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:19BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:22MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 38, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 11:19MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:09MSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:04MSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:46MSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:24MSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:0486% → 85%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
85.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+22
85.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 22 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
85.5%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+28
85.4%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 28 yds to the BwGrn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
85.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
85.2%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 0
OPP 1
+30
85.2%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the BwGrn 1 LJ Scott fumbled, forced by Brandon Harris, recovered by BwGrn Brandon Harris , return for 30 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2FG
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:0615% → 16%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
84.7%
Donovan Wilson run for no gain to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+45
84.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 45 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
84.1%
Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
84.0%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
83.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
83.8%
Jake Suder 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2184% → 83%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
83.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
83.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
83.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
83.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Marcus Milton at the BwGrn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4117% → 17%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
83.3%
Josh Cleveland run for no gain to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
83.1%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Josh ClevelandSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+14
83.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 14 yds to the BwGrn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
82.8%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
82.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
82.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
82.9%
Joseph Davidson punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1782% → 82%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
82.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
82.6%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
82.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+8
81.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 8 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-15
81.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 15 yards to the MchSt 41 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BwGrn David KonowalskiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5719% → 19%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
80.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
80.7%
Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+5
80.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
80.3%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Leonard SkatteboSimilar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
80.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 6:1381% → 82%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
81.0%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+7
81.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 7 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
80.6%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+10
80.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
80.3%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
80.3%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+5
80.0%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
80.3%
Brian Lewerke sacked by David Konowalski for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 24 Brian Lewerke fumbled, forced by David Konowalski, recovered by MchSt Madre London , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+1
80.0%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+10
79.1%
Madre London run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
79.5%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
82.4%
Madre London run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:2718% → 18%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
81.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+12
81.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Matthew Wilcox Jr. for 12 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
81.5%
Josh Cleveland run for no gain to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
81.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
82.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 64 yds, downed at the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 44 yds · 5:3381% → 80%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
80.8%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 12Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+5
80.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 5 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+5
79.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 5 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
80.9%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
80.7%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+10
80.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 10 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
81.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 12 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
81.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
81.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 9 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-3
81.2%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
80.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:2120% → 20%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
79.8%
Andrew Clair run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
79.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Andrew Clair for 3 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
78.7%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
79.1%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+10
80.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 46 yds , Darrell Stewart Jr. returns for 10 yds to the MchSt 25 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 1:1679% → 88%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
79.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 5 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+15
79.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 15 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
79.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 8 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+15
80.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 15 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
81.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+40
81.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 40 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
81.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Luke Campbell) to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+4
82.3%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Targeting (Fred Garth) to the BwGrn 3 for a 1ST down. F. Garth ejected.Similar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
86.8%
Josh Cleveland run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0614% → 13%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
86.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 7 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-1
86.2%
Josh Cleveland run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
86.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
87.3%
Joseph Davidson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Darrell Stewart Jr. at the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:2687% → 95%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
87.1%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 16
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+21
86.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 21 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
88.0%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+29
87.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 29 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
88.1%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+12
88.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 12 yds to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
88.2%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
88.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q3 9:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 2:286% → 5%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
93.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Donovan Wilson for 4 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
94.0%
Andrew Clair run for no gain to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-5
94.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 11
OWN 11
-10
94.4%
James Morgan sacked by Chris Frey for a loss of 10 yards to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 21
OWN 1
+4
94.7%
Joseph Davidson punt for 48 yds , Darrell Stewart Jr. returns for 4 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:3096% → 99%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
95.7%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+12
95.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
95.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 8 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+8
96.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
96.1%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+5
96.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
99.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:091% → 0%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+38
99.7%
James Morgan pass intercepted for a TD Tyson Smith return for 38 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Josh Cleveland run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Hunter FolkertsmaSimilar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.8%
Joseph Davidson punt for 44 yds , Darrell Stewart Jr. returns for 1 yd to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:36100% → 99%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.7%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+11
99.7%
Madre London run for 11 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
99.8%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+46
99.4%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds LJ Scott fumbled, forced by Armani Posey, recovered by BwGrn Cameron Jefferies , return for 46 yds, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5899% → 99%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Kevin Jarvis) to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
99.4%
Madre London run for 9 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Matt SeybertSimilar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Hunter RisonSimilar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Marcus Milton at the BwGrn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:261% → 1%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.1%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
99.1%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+31
99.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 31 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.1%
Josh Cleveland run for 1 yd to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
99.2%
Josh Cleveland run for 6 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
99.2%
Donovan Wilson run for no gain to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-5
99.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Datrin Guyton for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
99.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 14 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 5 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
99.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Hunter Folkertsma for 19 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.7%
Matt Domer run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
99.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
99.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Leonard SkatteboSimilar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
99.6%
Joseph Davidson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
99.7%
Madre London run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 12
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+10
99.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 10 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Marcus Milton at the BwGrn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
99.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 15 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.8%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
99.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Janarvis PoughSimilar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
99.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Joseph Davidson punt for 51 yds, downed at the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
99.8%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+16
99.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 16 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Damion Terry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+10
99.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 57 yds , Marcus Milton returns for 10 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
99.8%
Matt Domer run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.8%
Matt Domer run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
99.8%
Terence Stephens Jr. run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.8%
Matt Domer run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:04
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q2 0:09
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q3 2:46
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com