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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:07 · Tim Zaleski punt for 40 yds , Matt VandeBerg returns for 7 yds to the Iowa 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- SACK · Q2 0:50: Josh Allen sacked by Josey Jewell for a loss of 19 yards to the IOWA 38 WYOMING Penalty, intentional grounding (Josh Allen) to the Wyom 38 — WYO win probability +5.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:50: Josh Allen run for 2 yds to the Wyom 40 — IOWA win probability +3.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:22: Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 27 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +8.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 7:14: Timeout WYOMING, clock 07:14 — IOWA win probability +2.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:34: Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 45 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK) — IOWA win probability +8.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WYO made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snapGo for it79.4%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.4%average punt
- Q1 13:21WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snapGo for it21.0%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.0%average punt
- Q1 10:57WYO 4th & 1 at IOWA 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.8%71% to convertField goal21.6%−0.247% to makePunt21.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 7:56IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snapGo for it77.4%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.4%average punt
- Q1 6:28WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 36, tiedClose callPunted · 22.9% before the snapGo for it22.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00WYO 4th & 1 at IOWA 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.1%71% to convertField goal25.4%−0.756% to makePunt24.9%−1.2average punt
- Q2 11:21WYO 4th & 15 at IOWA 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snapGo for it25.5%−0.617% to convertField goalTheir call26.1%51% to makePunt25.6%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:21IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt71.4%−1.1average punt
- Q2 5:07IOWA 4th & 2 at WYO 2, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.3%48% to convertField goal66.9%−1.594% to makePunt61.0%−7.4average punt
- Q2 5:07WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 43, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snapGo for it25.0%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.1%average punt
- Q2 0:38WYO 4th & 30 at WYO 37, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snapGo for it23.0%−1.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.4%average punt
- Q3 15:00WYO 4th & 2 at IOWA 38, down 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.8%57% to convertField goal15.4%−1.438% to makePuntTheir call15.8%−1.1average punt
- Q3 11:20IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 27, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snapGo for it84.4%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.8%average punt
- Q3 7:10WYO 4th & 3 at IOWA 49, down 11Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it16.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.7%−0.6average punt
- Q3 5:34WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 17, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q3 2:17WYO 4th & 4 at IOWA 30, down 18Close callKicked a field goal · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.7%48% to convertField goalTheir call5.3%−0.556% to makePunt4.4%−1.4average punt
- Q4 15:00IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 31, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snapGo for it96.0%−0.831% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%average punt
- Q4 7:52IOWA 4th & 9 at WYO 26, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.4%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call97.6%64% to makePunt96.1%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 5:07IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.5%97% to makeGo for two75.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:22IOWA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.7%97% to makeGo for two82.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:34IOWA Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIOWADrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
78.7%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 1 yd to the Wyom 31Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
78.7%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 3 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+23
78.8%
Tim Zaleski punt for 36 yds , Matt VandeBerg returns for 23 yds to the Wyom 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
WYODrive 4DOWNS7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+9
77.9%
Avante' Cox run for 9 yds to the Wyom 45 Avante' Cox fumbled, forced by Ben Niemann, recovered by Wyom Avante' Cox for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
77.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 12 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+6
77.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 6 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
77.5%
Nathan Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. Hockenson, broken up by Marcus EppsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
76.7%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 11 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
76.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 2 yds to the Wyom 32Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
76.9%
Tim Zaleski punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Matt VandeBerg at the Iowa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7FUMBLE6 plays · 38 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q1 4:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+14
76.9%
Nathan Stanley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, Defensive holding (Logan Wilson) to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+4
76.8%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 4 yds to the Wyom 33 Ihmir Smith-Marsette fumbled, forced by Marcus Epps,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8FG12 plays · 35 yds · 4:4526% → 28%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
74.4%
Josh Allen pass complete to Josh Harshman for 5 yds to the Wyom 38Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+22
74.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 7 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Miles Taylor) to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+6
73.2%
Josh Allen pass complete to Kellen Overstreet for 6 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
-10
72.7%
ALLEN, Josh pass incomplete to HARSHMAN, Josh, PENALTY WY holding (CUMMINGS, Ryan) 10 yards to the IOWA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-5
73.2%
Josh Allen sacked by Josey Jewell for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9TD12 plays · 65 yds · 6:1472% → 76%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
73.1%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 19 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
74.0%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 2 yds to the Wyom 8Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.5%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 2 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
IOWADrive 11FUMBLE4 plays · 19 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
76.3%
Nathan Stanley sacked by Carl Granderson for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 43 Nathan Stanley fumbled, recovered by Wyom Sidney Malauulu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT6 plays · -20 yds · 0:1229% → 23%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-19
70.7%
Josh Allen sacked by Josey Jewell for a loss of 19 yards to the IOWA 38 WYOMING Penalty, intentional grounding (Josh Allen) to the Wyom 38Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 27
OWN 40
-3
75.5%
Josh Allen sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13TD2 plays · 32 yds · 0:0577% → 86%
WYODrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
83.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 14 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+9
82.4%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 9 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
81.8%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Joshua JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
84.5%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 14 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
84.6%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 5 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
83.5%
Colten Rastetter punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 2:0116% → 13%
IOWADrive 18TD5 plays · 76 yds · 1:2687% → 96%
Q3 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+26
87.4%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 11 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (Tyler Hall) to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
95.7%
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 45 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
IOWADrive 20FUMBLE1 play · -12 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-12
96.1%
Nathan Stanley run for a loss of 12 yards to the Iowa 36 Nathan Stanley fumbled, forced by Kevin Prosser, recovered by Wyom Kevin ProsserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21MISSED FG4 plays · 6 yds · 1:286% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1796% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23INT8 plays · 44 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q4 14:49
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+14
96.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Avante' Cox for 14 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to John Okwoli for no gain to the Wyom 47Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+23
95.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to John Okwoli for 23 yds to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+41
95.1%
Josh Allen pass intercepted Joshua Jackson return for 41 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24FG8 plays · 13 yds · 3:4098% → 100%
Q4 11:32
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-12
98.0%
Nathan Stanley sacked by Jalen Ortiz for a loss of 12 yards to the 50 yard line Nathan Stanley fumbled, recovered by Iowa Nathan Stanley , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 25INT11 plays · 42 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
99.2%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 1 yd to the Wyom 18Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+12
99.2%
Josh Allen pass complete to John Okwoli for 12 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
99.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 14 yds to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tyree Mayfield, broken up by Josey JewellSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Rico Gafford for 4 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
99.1%
Josh Allen pass intercepted Brady Reiff return for 5 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26END OF GAME7 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:34
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 45 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q2 0:22
Nathan Stanley pass complete to Noah Fant for 27 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)
+8.2
SACK · Q2 0:50
Josh Allen sacked by Josey Jewell for a loss of 19 yards to the IOWA 38 WYOMING Penalty, intentional grounding (Josh Allen) to the Wyom 38
-5.6