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BALL

Ball State 21 at Illinois 24

ILL
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:59 · Chase McLaughlin 44 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior+2.1Home team on offense−3.8Garbage-time factor−5.2Score differential−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:52: Mike Epstein run for 6 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +7.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:41: Malik Dunner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +11.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:24: James Gilbert run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +20.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:18: Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the BalSt 45 — BALL win probability +16.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:06: Mike Epstein run for 1 yd for a TD BALL ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (C. Crouch Run For Two-point Conversion) — ILL win probability +51.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:58BALL 4th & 7 at ILL 30, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:28ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 36, up 1
    Close callPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:38ILL 4th & 5 at BALL 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:52BALL 4th & 5 at ILL 49, down 6
    Close callPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:21ILL 4th & 12 at BALL 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−2.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:41ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 38, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:24ILL 4th & 21 at ILL 13, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−7.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:07ILL 4th & 14 at BALL 37, down 5
    Close callPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:09BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 23, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−2.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:59ILL 4th & 3 at BALL 26, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%−1.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−16.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:55BALL 4th & 3 at ILL 35, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−3.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−6.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:18BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 49, up 5
    Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00BALL 4th & 16 at ILL 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−10.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−13.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:58ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    65.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:28BALL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:52ILL Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:41BALL Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:24BALL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:06ILL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    69.9%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
64.6%
Chayce Crouch sacked by Jacob White for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+14
64.6%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Nathan Echard for 14 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
64.6%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-2
64.6%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-8
64.6%
Mike Epstein run for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
64.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 39 yds, downed at the BalSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:4636% → 36%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
64.3%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
64.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 2 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+34
64.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Antwan Davis for 10 yds Antwan Davis fumbled, forced by Patrick Nelson, recovered by Illin Tre Watson , return for 34 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
66.5%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Mike Dudek for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 6:3034% → 38%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
65.8%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Cameron Watkins) to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
65.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 7 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
65.4%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
65.4%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
65.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
65.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 5 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+10
65.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 10 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
65.1%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+2
65.1%
Justin Hall run for 2 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
65.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+11
65.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 11 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
65.1%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+7
65.1%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
65.3%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
61.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Nolan Givan for 8 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 3:28
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
62.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 54 yds, downed at the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.9%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Kendrick FosterSimilar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.8%
Kendrick Foster run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
62.4%
Chayce Crouch pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2338% → 38%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
62.5%
Malik Dunner run for no gain to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-1
62.5%
Riley Neal sacked by Kenyon Jackson and Del'Shawn Phillips for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 18Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+11
63.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 11 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
62.4%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+1
61.3%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+1
61.6%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
62.1%
Nathan Snyder punt for 33 yds , Mike Dudek returns for no gain to the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:4663% → 72%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
62.7%
Chayce Crouch run for 2 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+6
62.7%
Mike Epstein run for 6 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+5
63.5%
Mike Epstein run for 5 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
63.9%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Mike Epstein for 15 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
64.3%
Mike Epstein run for 8 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
65.1%
Chayce Crouch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 2
OPP 33
-3
64.2%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+11
63.5%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Malik Turner for 11 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
65.1%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Malik Turner for 10 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
65.1%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 4 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
65.1%
Mike Epstein run for 5 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
72.3%
Mike Epstein run for 6 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
69.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
69.9%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
69.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Nolan Givan for 5 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
68.6%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+3
68.8%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
68.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Malik DunnerSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
69.2%
Malik Dunner run for 2 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+3
69.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Keidren Davis for 3 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
70.0%
Nathan Snyder punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 2:3672% → 74%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
72.4%
Crouch,Chayce pass incomplete to Turner,Malik, PENALTY BALL pass interference (COSBY, Bryce) 15 yards to the ILL35, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
72.7%
Kendrick Foster run for 2 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+31
73.1%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Mike Dudek for 31 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
74.1%
Chayce Crouch run for 12 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
74.1%
Chayce Crouch run for 3 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
74.1%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-5
73.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 22Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 12
OPP 22
0
72.7%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Louis Dorsey, broken up by Marc WaltonSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+40
73.7%
Chase McLaughlin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.0%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:1926% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.2%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
73.0%
James Gilbert run for 15 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
72.5%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
72.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+11
72.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 11 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
72.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Antwan Davis, broken up by Bobby RoundtreeSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
72.1%
Malik Dunner run for 1 yd to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+12
72.5%
Riley Neal run for 12 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
70.6%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+1
70.6%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the Illin 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+1
71.7%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
70.6%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+6
70.6%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the Illin 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
70.7%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the Illin 3Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
58.8%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0064% → 65%
Q3 9:41
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+8
63.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 8 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.2%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Nathan Echard, broken up by Josh MillerSimilar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
64.9%
Kendrick Foster run for 3 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
64.7%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Mike Dudek, broken up by Romero WadeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:2636% → 62%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
63.9%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 20Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+18
64.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 18 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
62.2%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
62.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+15
63.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 15 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
60.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Malik DunnerSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
60.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+12
62.1%
Riley Neal run for 12 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
59.0%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+27
59.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 27 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
58.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Danny Pinter, broken up by Patrick NelsonSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
58.6%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
38.0%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
43.8%
Chayce Crouch run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 21Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 13
OWN 21
0
43.2%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 13
OWN 21
-8
41.7%
Chayce Crouch sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 13Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 21
OWN 13
+1
40.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 44 , Corey Lacanaria returns for 1 yd to the BalSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
37.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
37.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Nolan GivanSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
39.3%
Riley Neal pass intercepted Tre Watson return for no gain to the BalSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0050% → 41%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
49.5%
Kendrick Foster run for 9 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 1
OPP 24
-6
49.5%
Chayce Crouch sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-7
47.1%
Chayce Crouch sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 14
OPP 37
0
40.8%
Chase McLaughlin punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5163% → 60%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
37.1%
Malik Dunner run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-1
37.4%
Malik Dunner run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 20Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+3
39.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 3 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+3
39.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 41 yds , Mike Dudek returns for 3 yds to the Illin 26 ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal block (Nate Hobbs) to the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 4:1442% → 43%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
42.1%
Mike Epstein run for 14 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
44.8%
Chayce Crouch run for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 40 Chayce Crouch fumbled, forced by Chris Crumb,Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+17
42.0%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Mike Epstein for 17 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
46.8%
Chayce Crouch run for 10 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
49.5%
Chayce Crouch run for 5 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
49.5%
Kendrick Foster run for no gain to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+2
46.9%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Malik Turner for 2 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
42.7%
Chase McLaughlin 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:0470% → 76%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
30.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+28
29.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 28 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
26.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-5
26.4%
Riley Neal sacked by Bobby Roundtree for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+9
27.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 9 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
24.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by Chris JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0034% → 37%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
33.6%
Mike Epstein run for 8 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
37.1%
Chayce Crouch pass intercepted Bryce Cosby return for no gain to the BalSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
20.5%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
20.7%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
20.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Antwan Davis, broken up by Bobby RoundtreeSimilar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+52
22.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 38 yds , Mike Dudek returns for 52 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:3439% → 91%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
38.7%
Mike Epstein run for 4 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+25
38.9%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Malik Turner for 25 yds to the BalSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
38.9%
Mike Epstein run for 5 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.7%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd for a TD BALL ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (C. Crouch Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23MISSED FG
14 plays · 39 yds · 2:0620% → 12%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
79.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 16 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
76.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 7 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+10
75.3%
Riley Neal run for 10 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
73.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 9 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+3
71.1%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-13
71.9%
Riley Neal sacked by Isaiah Gay for a loss of 13 yards to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 23
OPP 43
+9
76.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Nolan Givan for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 14
OPP 34
-10
77.7%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to DUNNER, Malik for 12 yards to the ILL22, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BALL holding (SLAVEN, Kaleb) 10 yards to the ILL44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 24
OPP 44
+8
81.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Malik Dunner for 8 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 36
+54
88.0%
Morgan Hagee 54 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jamal MilanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:06
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd for a TD BALL ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (C. Crouch Run For Two-point Conversion)
+51.8
TD · Q3 4:24
James Gilbert run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-20.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:18
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the BalSt 45
-16.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com