Try the model
USU

Utah State 10 at Wisconsin 59

WIS
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2017 · Camp Randall Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:41 · Anthony Lotti punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Zach Van Leeuwen at the UthSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior+37.4Home team on offense−4.6Score differential−2.2Blowout margin−0.7Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:12: Bradrick Shaw run for 3 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +9.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Rafael Gaglianone 29 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +3.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:00: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 23 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +4.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:20: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Zander Neuville for 28 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +3.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:50: Jonathan Taylor run for 13 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +3.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 12:06USU 4th & 6 at USU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26WIS 4th & 23 at WIS 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:56USU 4th & 8 at WIS 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:33WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:57USU 4th & 2 at WIS 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:41WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:37USU 4th & 6 at USU 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00WIS 4th & 3 at USU 11, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%−0.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:56USU 4th & 17 at USU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:53USU 4th & 3 at USU 45, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:58USU 4th & 5 at WIS 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:13USU 4th & 10 at USU 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:47USU 4th & 7 at WIS 20, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:23USU 4th & 7 at WIS 30, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 8USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:47USU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:12WIS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:00WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:20WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:50WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:51WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:26WIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:02WIS Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:52WIS Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:495% → 5%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 18Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+15
95.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 15 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
95.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
95.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Damion Hobbs for 5 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-1
95.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
94.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for no gain to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+3
94.8%
Aaron Dalton punt for 55 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 43 WISCONSIN Penalty, Illegal Block (Lubern Figaro) to the Wisc 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 3:2995% → 94%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
94.7%
Bradrick Shaw run for 5 yds to the Wisc 9Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+2
94.7%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the Wisc 11Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+10
94.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Bradrick Shaw for 10 yds to the Wisc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
94.4%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Jalen Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 15Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+4
94.2%
Chris James run for 4 yds to the Wisc 19Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 12
OWN 19
-11
94.0%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Maika Magalei for a loss of 11 yards to the Wisc 8Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 23
OWN 8
0
93.8%
Anthony Lotti punt for 54 yds , Zach Van Leeuwen returns for no gain to the UthSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:216% → 7%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
93.8%
Tonny Lindsey Jr. run for 7 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+10
93.6%
Myers, Kent pass incomplete to Tarver, Ron'quavion, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Nelson, Nick) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST.Similar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
93.6%
Tonny Lindsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+12
93.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey Jr. for 12 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
93.1%
Jordan Nathan run for 19 yds to the Wisc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
93.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 2 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
92.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Quin Ficklin) to the Wisc 8Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
92.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the Wisc 3Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
92.6%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
92.6%
Dominik Eberle 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:3093% → 92%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.5%
Jazz Peavy run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
92.4%
Alex Hornibrook run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 16 Alex Hornibrook fumbled, recovered by UthSt Suli Tamaivena , return for 13 yds to the Wisc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:078% → 9%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
91.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
90.7%
LaJuan Hunt run for 12 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:5991% → 90%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
90.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-4
90.7%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Troy Fumagalli) to the Wisc 5Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 14
OWN 5
+3
90.6%
Chris James run for 3 yds to the Wisc 8Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 11
OWN 8
0
90.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to A.J. TaylorSimilar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 11
OWN 8
0
89.6%
Anthony Lotti punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2610% → 11%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
90.1%
Savon Scarver run for 4 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+4
89.7%
Tonny Lindsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
89.4%
Kent Myers run for no gain to the Wisc 39Similar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
89.3%
Kent Myers punt for 36 yds, downed at the Wisc 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:0889% → 86%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
89.0%
Bradrick Shaw run for 4 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+11
88.6%
Bradrick Shaw run for 11 yds to the Wisc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
88.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jonathan TaylorSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
88.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 4 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+15
87.7%
Hornibrook, Alex pass incomplete to Cephus, Quintez (Davis, Jalen), PENALTY UTAHST personal foul (Davis, Jalen) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN. Jalen Davis ejected for TargetingSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
87.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 38Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
87.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Troy Fumagalli, broken up by Dallin LeavittSimilar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-2
86.9%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Louy Compton for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
86.4%
Anthony Lotti punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Zach Van Leeuwen at the UthSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:5913% → 15%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
87.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 3 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-4
86.6%
Eltoro Allen run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+5
86.9%
Myers, Kent pass incomplete to Colston-Green, Jaren, PENALTY WISCONSIN offside (Orr, Chris) 5 yards to the UTAHST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+7
86.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 7 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
85.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for no gain to the UthSt 39Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
85.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Damion Hobbs for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+5
85.0%
Kent Myers run for 5 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
84.7%
Aaron Dalton punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nick Nelson at the Wisc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10TD
19 plays · 79 yds · 8:1684% → 85%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
83.8%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
83.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for 3 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+15
82.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 15 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
82.4%
Chris James run for 7 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
82.5%
Chris James run for no gain to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+5
81.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 5 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
81.3%
Bradrick Shaw run for 4 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-1
81.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 44Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-5
80.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (David Edwards) to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+15
79.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 15 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
81.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 7 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-1
80.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 28Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+14
78.8%
Hornibrook, Alex pass incomplete to Fumagalli, Troy, PENALTY UTAHST roughing passer (Togiai, Ian) 14 yards to the UTAHST14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
79.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
78.9%
Austin Ramesh run for 5 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
75.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the UthSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for 3 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
80.6%
Kent Myers pass intercepted T.J. Edwards return for 7 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5685% → 86%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
84.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
84.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+7
83.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 7 yds to the UthSt 11Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+29
85.9%
Rafael Gaglianone 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:4785% → 90%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+41
84.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 41 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
86.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+2
85.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+23
90.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 23 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:1911% → 11%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
89.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 5 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-1
88.9%
Kent Myers pass intercepted D'Cota Dixon return for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 1:0390% → 95%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
90.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 19 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
90.6%
Bradrick Shaw run for 6 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+28
94.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Zander Neuville for 28 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:196% → 6%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.7%
Kent Myers run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-14
93.4%
Myers, Kent pass incomplete to Nathan, Jordan, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference 14 yards to the UTAHST14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
93.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Tonny Lindsey Jr.Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+4
93.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey Jr. for 4 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
94.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nick Nelson at the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:0195% → 98%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
94.6%
Jazz Peavy run for 2 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+26
94.6%
Bradrick Shaw run for 26 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
94.7%
Bradrick Shaw run for 4 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
94.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to A.J. TaylorSimilar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+15
94.5%
Hornibrook, Alex pass incomplete to Davis III, Danny (Bailey, Wesley), PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Bailey, Wesley) 15 yards to the UTAHST13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
98.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 13 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:522% → 2%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Carson Terrell for 13 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for no gain to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
97.8%
Kent Myers sacked by Isaiahh Loudermilk for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+12
98.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 12 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+14
97.9%
Aaron Dalton punt for 40 yds , Nick Nelson returns for 14 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:3898% → 98%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
98.2%
Hornibrook, Alex pass incomplete to Davis III, Danny, PENALTY UTAHST holding (Leavitt, Dallin) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
98.3%
Derrick Tindal run for 13 yds to the WISCONSIN 48 WISCONSIN Penalty, Illegal Block (Chris James) to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 13
OWN 36
+2
98.2%
Chris James run for 2 yds to the Wisc 38 Chris James fumbled, forced by Mohelika Uasike, recovered by UthSt Louy ComptonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
98.1%
Jordan Nathan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 39Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 12
OPP 39
0
98.1%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Jordan Nathan, broken up by T.J. EdwardsSimilar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+7
98.2%
Tonny Lindsey Jr. run for 7 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
98.2%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:0198% → 100%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
97.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 11 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
98.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+19
98.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 19 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
98.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Alec Ingold for 11 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
98.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 4 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 21 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 6 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Olive Sagapolu) to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Carson Terrell for 11 yds Carson Terrell fumbled, recovered by UthSt Robert Castaneda for a 1ST down , return for 6 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-3
99.9%
Jordan Nathan run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 43Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Aaron Dalton punt for 45 yds, downed at the Wisc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 3:40100% → 100%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+16
99.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 16 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+44
99.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 44 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
99.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 5
OPP 16
+1
99.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 1 yd to the UthSt 15Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+8
99.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 8 yds to the UthSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 1 yd to the UthSt 6Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Austin Ramesh run for 6 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24INT TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Tonny Lindsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+13
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Gerold Bright for 13 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+40
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jaren Colston-Green for 40 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.9%
Tonny Lindsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-2
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Alex Byers for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 22Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+2
99.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+7
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 7 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.9%
Kent Myers run for 5 yds to the Wisc 8Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+99
99.9%
Kent Myers pass intercepted for a TD Joe Ferguson return for 99 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
99.9%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+7
99.9%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+6
99.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 6 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
100.0%
Garrett Groshek run for 23 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26END OF GAME
15 plays · 66 yds · 3:350% → 0%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Justen Hervey run for 7 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
100.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
100.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Gerold Bright for 8 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
100.0%
Justen Hervey run for 6 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+26
100.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Savon Scarver for 36 yds to the WISCONSIN 23 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
100.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Gerold Bright for 2 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+1
100.0%
Eltoro Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+10
100.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Alex Byers for 10 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
100.0%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
100.0%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+11
100.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Eltoro Allen for 11 yds to the Wisc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
100.0%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:12
Bradrick Shaw run for 3 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q3 13:00
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 23 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+4.3
FG · Q2 0:00
Rafael Gaglianone 29 yd FG GOOD
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com