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BUF

Buffalo 7 at Minnesota 17

MINN
2017 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2017 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:16 · Kyle DeWeen punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+26.9Home team on offense+5.2Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Score differential+1.3Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:37: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +2.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:12: Conor Rhoda pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 6 yds to the Minn 46 — MINN win probability +3.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:34: Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 18 — BUF win probability +2.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:29: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 14 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST down — BUF win probability +3.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:22: Demry Croft pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Cameron Lewis — MINN win probability +3.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 10BUF made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:43MINN 4th & 3 at BUF 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:45BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:59BUF 4th & 7 at MINN 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:59MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:00MINN 4th & 4 at BUF 32, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:18BUF 4th & 8 at MINN 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:16BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.4
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:14BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:18MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:58MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.6%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:58MINN 4th & 2 at BUF 43, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.4%−1.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:09BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:34MINN 4th & 8 at BUF 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−7.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:34BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:04MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:29BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:05MINN 4th & 1 at BUF 25, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%−1.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−4.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:05BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:35MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:37BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:43MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
93.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 4 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-10
93.4%
JACKSON, Tyree rush for 12 yards to the UB43 (Celestin, J;Ayinde,Adekunle), PENALTY UB holding (O'HAGAN, James) 10 yards to the UB21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
93.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
93.4%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
93.1%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 13 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
93.1%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
93.1%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-1
93.1%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
93.1%
Ryan Santoso punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
92.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+3
92.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+1
92.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 1 yd to the Buff 19Similar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
92.6%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4TD
2 plays · 61 yds · 0:1592% → 93%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.1%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+61
92.7%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 61 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5MISSED FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 2:368% → 8%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
92.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 9 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
92.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 6 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+15
92.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 15 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
92.4%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
92.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Johnathan Hawkins, broken up by Adekunle AyindeSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+10
92.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds to the Minn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
92.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
92.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
92.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
92.1%
Adam Mitcheson 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
92.2%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+3
92.2%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
92.1%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Demetrius Douglas, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+14
92.0%
Ryan Santoso punt for 54 yds , Jacob Martinez returns for 14 yds to the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:578% → 10%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
91.8%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+50
91.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 50 yds to the Minn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
89.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:5491% → 92%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
90.6%
Demry Croft run for 5 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+23
90.8%
Demry Croft pass complete to Eric Carter for 23 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
90.9%
Demry Croft pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 6 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+3
90.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
90.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
90.9%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+6
90.9%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
90.9%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+8
90.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 8 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:439% → 9%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
90.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
90.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 4 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
90.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-5
90.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
90.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+12
91.0%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 48 yds , Antonio Shenault returns for 12 yds to the Minn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:5891% → 90%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
90.7%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Eric CarterSimilar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
90.7%
Demry Croft run for 4 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+8
90.6%
Demry Croft pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 8 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
91.1%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Khalil Hodge) to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
91.2%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+1
91.2%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+3
91.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+50
90.2%
Emmit Carpenter 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:4210% → 11%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
89.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Winston DeLattiboudereSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
89.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+15
89.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
89.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 8 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
89.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Gary MooreSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+7
89.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 7 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
88.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+15
88.8%
JOHNSON, Anthon pass incomplete, PENALTY MINN personal foul (Martin, Kamal) 15 yards to the MINN18, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
88.7%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
-3
88.7%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Antoine Winfield Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
89.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
89.0%
Adam Mitcheson 33 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Antoine Winfield Jr. Winston DeLattiboudere return for no gain to the Minn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12INT
14 plays · 79 yds · 5:3990% → 89%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
89.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 11Similar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+1
89.7%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 1 yd to the Minn 12Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 14
OWN 12
+17
89.6%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 17 yds to the Minn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
89.8%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 22 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
90.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
90.4%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+14
90.2%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 14 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
90.5%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
90.5%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+19
90.2%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 19 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
90.5%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
90.5%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
89.0%
Conor Rhoda pass intercepted, touchback. Cameron Lewis return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1812% → 12%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
87.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-1
87.6%
Tyree Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
88.4%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
87.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
88.2%
Smith, Rodney rush for 2 yards to the MINN21 (FORD, Chris), PENALTY MINN holding (Greene, Donnell) 9 yards to the MINN10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 19
OWN 10
0
88.1%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Tatum SlackSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 10
-4
88.0%
Demry Croft run for 2 yds to the Minn 12 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive holding (Rashad Still) to the Minn 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 6
+6
87.9%
Demry Croft pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 6 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+10
87.5%
Demry Croft pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 10 yds to the Minn 22 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
87.1%
Ryan Santoso punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
86.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Anthony Johnson) to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+1
87.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 1 yd to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
87.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Antonio ShenaultSimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
87.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
88.1%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 48 yds , Antonio Shenault returns for no gain to the Minn 21 Antonio Shenault fumbled, recovered by Minn Antonio ShenaultSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
87.4%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Demetrius DouglasSimilar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+16
87.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 16 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
87.9%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
87.4%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+7
86.8%
Demry Croft run for 7 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
86.8%
Ryan Santoso punt for 47 yds, downed at the Buff 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18INT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:3813% → 13%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
86.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+13
87.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 13 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
87.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 9 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
86.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for no gain to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
86.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 4 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
86.4%
Johnathan Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+4
86.9%
Tyree Jackson run for 4 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
86.9%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Jacob Huff return for no gain to the Minn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
89.4%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
90.0%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
89.5%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+3
89.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
90.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
90.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+1
89.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
89.2%
Ryan Santoso punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cameron Lewis at the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
86.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 17 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.0%
Anthony Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
85.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Johnathan Hawkins, broken up by Antoine Winfield Jr.Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
87.4%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:3891% → 90%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
90.9%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 6 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+4
91.0%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
91.6%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+14
91.6%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 14 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
92.1%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
92.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 7 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+5
91.5%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 5 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
92.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
92.1%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Rashad Still, broken up by Tatum SlackSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
91.5%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
90.4%
Emmit Carpenter 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
87.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+3
88.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 3 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
88.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
89.1%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
91.7%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+5
91.4%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 5 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
91.2%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Nate WozniakSimilar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
90.6%
Ryan Santoso punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
87.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 14 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
86.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Antonio ShenaultSimilar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
86.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
87.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler MabrySimilar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
88.2%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 44 yds, downed at the Minn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 5:1792% → 96%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
91.6%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
91.4%
Rodney Smith run for 10 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
91.8%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
91.7%
Demry Croft pass complete to Rodney Smith for 2 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+9
91.3%
Demry Croft run for 9 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
92.5%
Demry Croft pass complete to Phillip Howard for 8 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+4
92.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
92.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 8 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+3
92.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
93.1%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+5
93.2%
Demry Croft run for 5 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
95.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+43
95.9%
Emmit Carpenter 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
97.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 7 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-2
97.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
97.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 14
OPP 31
-2
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:12
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 6 yds to the Minn 46
+3.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+3.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:29
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 14 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST down
-3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com