Try the model
ND

Notre Dame 8 at Miami 41

MIA
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:29 · Zach Feagles punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Home team on offense+11.6Score differential+6.2Garbage-time factor+4.1Blowout margin−0.3Pregame prior−6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:01: Braxton Berrios 7 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +4.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:33: Malik Rosier 16 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +5.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 13:27: Michael Badgley 23 Yd Field Goal — MIA win probability +4.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 5:56: Michael Badgley 30 Yd Field Goal — MIA win probability +7.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:22: Trajan Bandy 65 Yd Interception Return (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:48ND 4th & 10 at MIA 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    56.7%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:49MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:05ND 4th & 4 at ND 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:04ND 4th & 5 at ND 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:27MIA 4th & 6 at ND 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−6.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:27ND 4th & 1 at ND 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.5%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:11ND 4th & 6 at ND 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:29MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:56MIA 4th & 13 at ND 13, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−10.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:31ND 4th & 7 at ND 28, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:47MIA 4th & 1 at ND 40, up 20
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.0%−2.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:18MIA 4th & 9 at ND 36, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:13ND 4th & 15 at ND 20, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:59MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 47, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:42MIA 4th & 2 at ND 32, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:05MIA 4th & 5 at ND 25, up 26
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:00MIA 4th & 4 at ND 4, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:49ND 4th & 2 at ND 38, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ND made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 4:01MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:33MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:22MIA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:30MIA Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:12ND Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:00MIA Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:5860% → 59%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
40.2%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
40.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. Brown, broken up by Shaquille QuartermanSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+21
40.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 21 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
40.4%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
40.5%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+9
40.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 9 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
40.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
40.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
40.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase Claypool, broken up by Trajan BandySimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
41.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:4441% → 42%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
41.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 8 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+10
41.5%
Travis Homer run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
41.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 6 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-1
42.2%
Malik Rosier run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
41.9%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 5
OWN 34
-3
41.7%
Zach Feagles punt for 38 yds , Chris Finke returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3758% → 57%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.9%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
42.0%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
42.2%
Chase Claypool run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+17
42.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 44 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 17 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:5543% → 49%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
43.2%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
43.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon Richards, broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+25
43.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 25 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
44.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 10 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
44.5%
Malik Rosier run for 5 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+8
44.7%
Malik Rosier run for 8 yds to the NDame 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
45.0%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
49.1%
Braxton Berrios 7 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4752% → 52%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Kevin StephersonSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.9%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
48.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass intercepted Jaquan Johnson return for 7 yds to the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:3050% → 56%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
49.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 16 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
55.6%
Malik Rosier 16 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1747% → 45%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
53.4%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Trent Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 12Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 13
OWN 12
0
54.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Josh AdamsSimilar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+8
54.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 8 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+34
55.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MIAMI 36 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Holding (Drue Tranquill) to the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:2858% → 64%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
57.5%
DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+25
58.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 25 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
58.5%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
58.8%
Malik Rosier run for 7 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+10
58.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 10 yds to the NDame 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
59.7%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the NDame 6Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
60.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 13:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
60.0%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IV, broken up by Nyles MorganSimilar
Q2 13:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
64.1%
Michael Badgley 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 4:0937% → 32%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.8%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
62.8%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 29Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
64.2%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
65.4%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
65.5%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+9
66.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 9 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
66.1%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
67.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Robert Hainsey) to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+11
68.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 35 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 11 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3472% → 72%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
72.4%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
73.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dayall Harris for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
72.7%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Dayall HarrisSimilar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
72.0%
Zach Feagles punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+13
70.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass intercepted Malek Young return for 13 yds to the NDame 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1474% → 82%
Q2 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
74.2%
Malik Rosier run for 1 yd to the NDame 8Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
75.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NDame 13Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
75.4%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
75.0%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Darrell Langham, broken up by Nick ColemanSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
82.3%
Michael Badgley 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1619% → 18%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.6%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the NDame 26Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
81.5%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
82.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kevin StephersonSimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
82.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:3585% → 86%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
84.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 17 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
86.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 3 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
86.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 4 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
86.6%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
86.0%
Zach Feagles punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15INT TD
11 plays · 54 yds · 2:1515% → 3%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
85.2%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+6
85.5%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+6
85.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 6 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
85.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 23 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
85.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+9
89.9%
Ian Book run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
89.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 4 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
89.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kevin Stepherson, broken up by Malek YoungSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+65
96.9%
Trajan Bandy 65 Yd Interception Return (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
97.4%
Josh Adams run for 12 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:1597% → 99%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
96.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+14
96.9%
Travis Homer run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+40
97.3%
Travis Homer run for 40 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
97.6%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+2
97.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+1
98.0%
Malik Rosier run for 1 yd to the NDame 36Similar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+28
98.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 28 yds to the NDame 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
98.3%
Homer, Travis rush for loss of 7 yards to the NOTREDAME15, PENALTY NOTREDAME face mask (Hayes, Jay) 4 yards to the NOTREDAME4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q3 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Darrell Langham, broken up by Drue TranquillSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.5%
DeeJay Dallas 4 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:072% → 1%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.3%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
98.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-2
98.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
98.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 4:0199% → 99%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
98.6%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+12
98.8%
Travis Homer run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dayall Harris for 3 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-4
99.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dayall Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+8
99.1%
Travis Homer run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
99.2%
Zach Feagles punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:421% → 1%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.3%
Brandon Wimbush run for 6 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+23
99.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 23 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
99.4%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Zach McCloud for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+16
99.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Durham Smythe for 16 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
99.4%
Dexter Williams run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 4
OPP 32
-4
99.3%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+16
99.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 16 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
99.5%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Trent Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 14
OPP 24
+10
99.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q3 0:12
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
99.1%
Alize Mack 14 Yd pass from Brandon Wimbush (Brandon Wimbush Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:5699% → 100%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+38
99.2%
Travis Homer run for 38 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+7
99.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for 7 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+2
99.5%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.5%
Malik Rosier run for 5 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
99.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-1
99.6%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
99.6%
Michael Badgley 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Kevin Stepherson, broken up by Sheldrick RedwineSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.7%
Dexter Williams run for 9 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
99.7%
Dexter Williams run for 8 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-12
99.7%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Jonathan Garvin for a loss of 12 yards to the NDame 30 Brandon Wimbush fumbled, forced by Jonathan Garvin, recovered by MiaFl Jonathan Garvin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:43100% → 100%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
99.7%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+8
99.7%
Travis Homer run for 8 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.7%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the NDame 19Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+9
99.8%
Travis Homer run for 9 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
99.8%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the NDame 9Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.8%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the NDame 6Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the NDame 4Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
DeeJay Dallas 4 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
99.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 13 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (Kevin Stepherson) to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd to the NDame 36Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Alize MackSimilar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-5
99.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+7
99.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 7 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+1
99.9%
Deon McIntosh run for 1 yd to the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 42Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 13
OPP 42
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 14
OPP 43
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 5:56
Michael Badgley 30 Yd Field Goal
+7.3
TD · Q2 0:22
Trajan Bandy 65 Yd Interception Return (Michael Badgley Kick)
+7.1
TD · Q1 2:33
Malik Rosier 16 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com