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USC

USC 14 at Notre Dame 49

ND
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:11 · Tyler Newsome punt for 44 yds , Jack Jones returns for 10 yds to the USC 38 USC Penalty, Illegal Block (Tayler Katoa) to the USC 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Home team on offense+4.6Score differential+2.3Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Pregame prior+5.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:43: Josh Adams 3 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +11.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:54: Brandon Wimbush 4 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +4.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:00: Steven Mitchell Jr. 5 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +6.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:06: Brandon Wimbush 7 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:26: Deontay Burnett 16 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +4.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:59ND 4th & 11 at ND 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:18USC 4th & 6 at USC 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:29USC 4th & 6 at USC 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:11ND 4th & 26 at ND 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:05USC 4th & 7 at ND 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:19ND 4th & 14 at USC 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    75.9%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:01USC 4th & 23 at USC 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -2.2%−4.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:19ND 4th & 10 at USC 40, up 28
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:55USC 4th & 6 at ND 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:54USC 4th & 7 at ND 48, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:58USC 4th & 11 at USC 44, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:13ND 4th & 9 at ND 27, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:10USC 4th & 3 at ND 41, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:48ND 4th & 10 at ND 20, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:33USC 4th & 3 at USC 45, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:45ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:59ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:43ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:54ND Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:00USC Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:06ND Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:26USC Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:07ND Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:17ND Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4757% → 57%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
56.6%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 9Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
56.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 11
OWN 9
0
56.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Josh AdamsSimilar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 11
OWN 9
+16
56.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 50 yds , Jack Jones returns for 16 yds to the NDame 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
56.6%
Sam Darnold sacked by Te'von Coney for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 49 Sam Darnold fumbled, forced by Te'von Coney, recovered by NDame Te'von Coney , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:5857% → 58%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
56.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 12 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
57.0%
Kevin Stepherson run for 13 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
57.9%
Equanimeous St. Brown 26 Yd pass from Brandon Wimbush (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1042% → 41%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
57.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 8 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+5
57.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 5 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
57.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+1
57.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 1 yd to the USC 46Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
58.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay Burnett, broken up by Shaun CrawfordSimilar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+14
58.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 47 yds , Chris Finke returns for 14 yds to the NDame 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:0659% → 64%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
58.9%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+10
59.2%
Josh Adams run for 10 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
59.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 6 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-3
59.8%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the NOTREDAME 49 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Quenton Nelson) to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+13
59.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 13 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
60.3%
Kevin Stepherson run for 11 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
60.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
60.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 10 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
60.7%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
64.4%
Kevin Stepherson 23 Yd pass from Brandon Wimbush (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1637% → 36%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
63.3%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 14Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
63.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+4
63.8%
Sam Darnold run for 4 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+2
64.4%
Reid Budrovich punt for 53 yds , Chris Finke returns for 2 yds to the NDame 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:1365% → 66%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
65.3%
Josh Adams run for 13 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
66.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Alize MackSimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-1
66.2%
Brandon Wimbush run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 11
OWN 43
-10
66.2%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Chris Hawkins for a loss of 10 yards to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 21
OWN 33
-5
65.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Jamir Jones) to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 26
OWN 28
+10
66.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 44 yds , Jack Jones returns for 10 yds to the USC 38 USC Penalty, Illegal Block (Tayler Katoa) to the USC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 4:5834% → 31%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
65.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
66.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+9
65.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
66.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 9 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
65.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
66.0%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+34
66.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 34 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
65.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the NDame 7Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+1
65.8%
Sam Darnold run for 1 yd to the NDame 6Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+3
66.7%
Darnold, Sam pass sacked for loss of 10 yards to the NOTREDAME16 (Okwara, Julian), PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Elliott, Jalen) 3 yards to the NOTREDAME3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 1
OPP 3
-1
68.0%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 4Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 2
OPP 4
-5
68.9%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NDame 9Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
69.5%
Chase McGrath 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9FUMBLE
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:3672% → 75%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.8%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the NDame 20Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
72.1%
Josh Adams run for 15 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
72.6%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
73.7%
Brandon Wimbush run for 8 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
74.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
74.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for no gain to the USC 45Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+8
74.7%
Brandon Wimbush run for 8 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
75.2%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 39Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 12
OPP 39
0
75.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 12
OPP 39
-2
75.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 41Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 14
OPP 41
+1
74.7%
Tyler Newsome punt for 33 yds , Jack Jones returns for 1 yd to the USC 9 Jack Jones fumbled, recovered by NDame Drue TranquillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:3075% → 87%
Q2 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
75.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q2 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
75.5%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.6%
Josh Adams 3 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:2816% → 16%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
83.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 17 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
83.6%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Nick Watkins return for 14 yds to the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:0188% → 96%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
87.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
88.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 5 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+20
88.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Durham Smythe for 20 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
89.0%
Brandon Wimbush run for 24 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
89.3%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
89.9%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.6%
Brandon Wimbush 4 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 2:442% → 2%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-3
96.4%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 31Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
97.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
97.4%
Sam Darnold sacked by Khalid Kareem for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 29Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+1
97.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 18
OWN 30
0
97.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 18
OWN 30
-5
97.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (Bubba Bolden) to the USC 25Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 23
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Reid Budrovich punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:3398% → 97%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
97.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
97.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
97.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Alize MackSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
97.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+39
97.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 1 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jack Jones) to the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
97.6%
Sam Darnold run for 1 yd to the USC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:4614% → 8%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
86.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 18 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
95.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+12
97.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 12 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
97.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
98.0%
Sam Darnold run for 3 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-1
98.0%
Sam Darnold sacked by Daelin Hayes for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+7
98.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 7 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.1%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+28
98.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 28 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.3%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the NDame 5Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay Burnett, broken up by Nick WatkinsSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.3%
Steven Mitchell Jr. 5 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:4094% → 99%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
94.3%
Josh Adams run for 21 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
94.7%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the USC 43Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-5
94.9%
Wimbush, Brandon pass complete to St. Brown, Equanimeous for 17 yards to the USC26, PENALTY NOTREDAME ineligible downfield on pass (Bars, Alex) 5 yards to the USC48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+4
94.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+13
94.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 13 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
95.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 6 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
95.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
95.5%
Stepherson, Kevin rush for no gain to the USC20, PENALTY NOTREDAME illegal block (Wimbush, Brandon) 10 yards to the USC30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+23
95.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 23 yds to the USC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Brandon Wimbush 7 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:261% → 5%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
99.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+14
99.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 14 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
99.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 24 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
99.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (Steven Mitchell Jr.) to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+18
99.4%
Sam Darnold run for 18 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.3%
Deontay Burnett 16 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD
2 plays · 84 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+84
99.6%
Josh Adams 84 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
99.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
99.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 10 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-4
99.7%
Sam Darnold sacked by Jay Hayes for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 47Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+5
99.8%
Matt Fink pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+23
99.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 23 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
99.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 12 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
99.8%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
Josh Adams 14 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:070% → 0%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.8%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+18
99.9%
Matt Fink run for 18 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 7 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-3
99.9%
Matt Fink pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 34Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-5
99.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (Austin Jackson) to the USC 29Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+16
99.9%
Matt Fink pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 16 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.9%
Matt Fink run for 7 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-8
99.9%
Matt Fink sacked by Khalid Kareem for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 11
OWN 44
+18
99.9%
Reid Budrovich punt for 48 yds , Chris Finke returns for 18 yds to the NDame 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Deon McIntosh run for no gain to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+21
99.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 42 yds , Jack Jones returns for 21 yds to the NDame 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+5
99.9%
Matt Fink pass complete to Randal Grimes for 5 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Reid Budrovich punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
99.9%
Deon McIntosh run for 5 yds to the NDame 25 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (Hunter Bivin) to the NDame 12Similar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 18
OWN 12
+10
99.9%
Ian Book run for 10 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Deon McIntosh run for 3 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Cole Kmet, broken up by Matt LopesSimilar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 5
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Jamir Jones) to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
100.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 37Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+8
100.0%
Matt Fink pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Reid Budrovich punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
100.0%
Deon McIntosh run for 3 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-3
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:43
Josh Adams 3 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)
+11.1
TD · Q3 10:00
Steven Mitchell Jr. 5 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)
-6
TD · Q2 3:54
Brandon Wimbush 4 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com