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ND

Notre Dame 33 at North Carolina 10

UNC
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDSAFETYFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:25 · Hunter Lent punt for 40 yds , Chris Finke returns for 5 yds to the NDame 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior−16.8Home team on offense−14.1Score differential−5.1Garbage-time factor−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: Ian Book pass complete to Cameron Smith for 6 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +3.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:38: Josh Adams run for 73 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +4.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:50: Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 25 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +7.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:41: Deon McIntosh run for 35 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +8.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 14:11: Freeman Jones 34 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +3.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ND made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:03ND 4th & 8 at ND 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:01UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:16ND 4th & 2 at ND 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:12UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:08ND 4th & 1 at UNC 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:51UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:41ND 4th & 1 at UNC 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.6%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:55UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:28UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:29ND 4th & 8 at ND 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:58ND 4th & 9 at ND 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:17UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:38ND 4th & 10 at UNC 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    76.6%
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:15ND 4th & 11 at UNC 11, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−5.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:25UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 32, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:09UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 15, down 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:26UNC 4th & 30 at UNC 5, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−3.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:42ND 4th & 19 at ND 28, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−2.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:00ND 4th & 2 at UNC 29, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−3.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:10UNC 4th & 4 at midfield, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:56ND 4th & 2 at UNC 13, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 14:54ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:38ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:50UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:41ND Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:05ND Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:3884% → 83%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
16.0%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+10
16.2%
Josh Adams run for 10 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
16.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 4 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-5
16.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-7
16.8%
Cameron Smith run for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 22 Cameron Smith fumbled, recovered by NDame Cameron SmithSimilar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 18
OWN 22
-5
16.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the NDame 17Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 23
OWN 17
+15
17.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Josh Adams for 15 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 12:03
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+11
17.4%
Tyler Newsome punt for 55 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for 11 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4917% → 18%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
17.4%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
17.6%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 6 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
17.7%
Chazz Surratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
17.7%
Tom Sheldon punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3482% → 81%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
17.8%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
18.0%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+2
18.4%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+20
18.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 57 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for 20 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5019% → 19%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
19.0%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+4
18.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 4 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
19.1%
Chazz Surratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+4
19.0%
Tom Sheldon punt for 55 yds , Chris Finke returns for 4 yds to the NDame 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:5381% → 80%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
19.3%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 11Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+9
19.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 9 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
19.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 23 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
19.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
19.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 9 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
19.6%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-1
20.0%
Ian Book run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0021% → 21%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-8
21.0%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Shaun Crawford for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+5
20.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Michael Carter for 5 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 13
OWN 46
0
20.8%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
20.7%
Tom Sheldon punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 4:4879% → 81%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
21.0%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
21.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 7 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
21.3%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
21.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 8 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
21.1%
Ian Book run for 8 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-1
21.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 3
50
+2
21.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+13
21.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 13 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
21.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
21.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 9 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+6
21.7%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
21.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Alize MackSimilar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
21.7%
Ian Book run for 9 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+5
22.1%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
18.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Cameron Smith for 6 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
19.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3121% → 21%
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
20.8%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
21.0%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Jordan CunninghamSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-10
20.4%
Surratt, Chazz pass complete to Cunningham, Jordan for 10 yards to the NOTREDAME46, PENALTY UNC holding 10 yards to the UNC34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 19
OWN 34
+14
20.1%
Chazz Surratt run for 14 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
21.0%
Hunter Lent punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:1280% → 84%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
20.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+73
15.8%
Josh Adams run for 73 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4716% → 16%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
16.4%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 21 Chazz Surratt fumbled, recovered by NCaro Nick PolinoSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+9
15.8%
Chazz Surratt run for 9 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
15.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Jordan CunninghamSimilar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
15.8%
Hunter Lent punt for 47 yds, downed at the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4685% → 85%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
15.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+4
15.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
15.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 3 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
15.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 29Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+5
15.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
15.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 2 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
15.2%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
15.4%
Tyler Newsome punt for 48 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for no gain to the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:3716% → 17%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
15.8%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 19 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
15.9%
Michael Carter run for 13 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
16.6%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 8
50
+17
16.6%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 17 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
17.1%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Juval MolletteSimilar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+14
17.0%
Chazz Surratt run for 14 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+21
17.1%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 11 yards to the NDame 46 Chazz Surratt fumbled, recovered by NDame Khalid Kareem , return for 21 yds to the NDame 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3885% → 85%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
14.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
14.6%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
14.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
15.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:2516% → 16%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
15.5%
Chazz Surratt run for 3 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
15.5%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+5
15.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+16
15.7%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 16 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
16.6%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 4 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
16.7%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Josh CabreraSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
16.5%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Juval MolletteSimilar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
16.4%
Hunter Lent punt for 51 yds, downed at the NDame 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:1285% → 85%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
15.4%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 3Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
15.5%
Ian Book pass intercepted Myles Dorn return for no gain to the NDame 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:3617% → 22%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
16.8%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+1
16.7%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+16
16.4%
Chazz Surratt run for 16 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
16.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
16.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
24.8%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 25 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-15
21.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:5179% → 79%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
20.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 9 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
19.8%
Ian Book run for 9 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+7
19.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 7 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
19.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
19.2%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Alize MackSimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
19.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Alize MackSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
20.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 43 yds, downed at the NCaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0423% → 21%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
22.6%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
20.5%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
20.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3920% → 20%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
20.4%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
20.4%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 8 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
20.3%
Chazz Surratt pass intercepted Julian Okwara return for 5 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21FG
9 plays · 5 yds · 2:4182% → 85%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
18.1%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+7
18.0%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+3
18.6%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
17.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 9Similar
Q3 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
18.2%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NCaro 9Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
18.2%
Ian Book sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
18.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
15.5%
Justin Yoon 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3916% → 16%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.2%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
16.1%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 5 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
16.0%
Chazz Surratt run for 1 yd to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
16.1%
Hunter Lent punt for 40 yds , Chris Finke returns for 5 yds to the NDame 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23INT
5 plays · 49 yds · 0:5786% → 87%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
14.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
13.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Durham Smythe for 14 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
13.2%
Deon McIntosh run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+15
13.2%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to St. Brown, Equanimeous, PENALTY UNC personal foul 15 yards to the UNC18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
13.1%
Ian Book pass intercepted Myles Dorn return for 2 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5215% → 15%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
15.3%
Chazz Surratt run for 8 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+1
15.8%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 1 yd to the NCaro 15Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 1
OWN 15
0
15.3%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+23
15.3%
Hunter Lent punt for 54 yds , Chris Finke returns for 23 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:1787% → 95%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
13.1%
Ian Book run for 11 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
4.8%
Deon McIntosh run for 35 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · -20 yds · 1:099% → 9%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.1%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
9.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
8.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-11
8.8%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Daelin Hayes for a loss of 11 yards to the NCaro 9Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 26
OWN 9
-4
8.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the NCaro 5Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 30
OWN 5
+12
8.5%
Hunter Lent punt for 60 yds , Chris Finke returns for 12 yds to the NDame 17 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the NDame 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:3095% → 96%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
4.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+2
5.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 2 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 23
OWN 24
0
4.3%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 23
OWN 24
+4
4.3%
Deon McIntosh run for 4 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 19
OWN 28
+14
4.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 44 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for 14 yds to the NCaro 42 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the NCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28FG
19 plays · 56 yds · 4:208% → 10%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
7.5%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Juval Mollette for 7 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 3
OWN 34
0
7.7%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
7.6%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
7.1%
Chazz Surratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+16
7.0%
Jordon Brown run for 16 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
7.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 15
50
0
7.1%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 15
50
+10
6.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 10 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+6
7.4%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 6 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
7.7%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jake Bargas for 3 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+8
7.9%
Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
7.8%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
7.6%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+15
6.8%
Surratt, Chazz pass incomplete to Ratliff-Williams, Anthony, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 15 yards to the NOTREDAME8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
7.3%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NDame 8Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
7.3%
Chazz Surratt run for 1 yd to the NDame 7Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
6.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Josh CabreraSimilar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 0
OPP 7
-10
7.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NDame 17Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+34
10.4%
Freeman Jones 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 29TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0193% → 99%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
6.6%
Deon McIntosh run for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
6.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Durham Smythe for 8 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
6.1%
Deon McIntosh run for 11 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
5.3%
Deon McIntosh run for 9 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+6
5.0%
Deon McIntosh run for 6 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
4.8%
Deon McIntosh run for 2 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
4.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+2
4.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+3
4.9%
Deon McIntosh run for 3 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
4.2%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
1.1%
Deon McIntosh run for 24 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 30FUMBLE
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:382% → 1%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
1.6%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+2
1.6%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+24
1.6%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 24 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
1.5%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 4
50
0
1.6%
Chazz Surratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 4
50
0
1.2%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Josh CabreraSimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 4
50
+12
1.2%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Beau Corrales for 12 yds Beau Corrales fumbled, forced by Drue Tranquill, recovered by NDame Drue TranquillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 31END OF GAME
12 plays · 55 yds · 6:4699% → 100%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
0.9%
Deon McIntosh run for 17 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
0.7%
C.J. Holmes run for 2 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+10
0.7%
C.J. Holmes run for 10 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
0.7%
C.J. Holmes run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
0.5%
C.J. Holmes run for no gain to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+9
0.5%
C.J. Holmes run for 9 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
0.4%
C.J. Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+7
0.4%
C.J. Holmes run for 7 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+2
0.3%
C.J. Holmes run for 2 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+7
0.3%
Deon McIntosh run for 7 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:41
Deon McIntosh run for 35 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q2 1:50
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 25 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q2 12:38
Josh Adams run for 73 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com