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Notre Dame 38 at Michigan State 18

MSU
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:32 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds , Chris Finke returns for no gain to the NDame 13 NOTRE DAME Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NDame 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense−2.4Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−1.0Pregame prior−10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:33: Brian Lewerke pass intercepted for a TD Julian Love return for 59 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +1.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 6:33: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:32: Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Dexter Williams for 8 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +8.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:47: Dexter Williams run for 14 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +10.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:46: Deon McIntosh run for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +9.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 6:26ND 4th & 12 at ND 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:32MSU 4th & 28 at MSU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ND 4th & 11 at MSU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:47MSU 4th & 8 at ND 43, down 21
    Close callPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:13MSU 4th & 8 at ND 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:38MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 43, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:29ND 4th & 7 at MSU 49, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:51MSU 4th & 6 at ND 6, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:51ND 4th & 11 at MSU 28, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:35ND 4th & 3 at MSU 41, up 20
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:24MSU 4th & 2 at ND 30, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:05ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:33ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:33MSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:32ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:47ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:46ND Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:09MSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:5562% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
37.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 10 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
37.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Josh AdamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
37.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 10 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
37.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 2 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+40
37.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 40 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
37.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for no gain to the MchSt 16Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
37.7%
Brandon Wimbush run for 16 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2INT TD
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3238% → 37%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
38.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
38.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+9
38.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 9 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
38.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 4 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
38.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Jay HayesSimilar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+59
36.7%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted for a TD Julian Love return for 59 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:0036% → 39%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
36.3%
LJ Scott run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
36.5%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+52
36.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 52 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
36.9%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
36.9%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the NDame 7Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+3
36.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
39.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
37.3%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-2
37.0%
Chase Claypool run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+12
37.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 12 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
36.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
36.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-5
36.9%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Chris Frey for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
37.7%
Tyler Newsome punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
37.5%
LJ Scott run for 8 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
38.1%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
37.7%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Drue Tranquill for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 20
OWN 21
+4
37.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 4 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 16
OWN 25
0
37.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Gerald HolmesSimilar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 16
OWN 25
-12
36.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (-12 Yards) to the MchSt 13Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 28
OWN 13
0
36.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds , Chris Finke returns for no gain to the NDame 13 NOTRE DAME Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:3164% → 63%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
36.5%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
36.1%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
35.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
35.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete, broken up by Josh Butler for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
35.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for no gain to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
35.4%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-5
35.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
35.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
36.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Quenton Nelson at the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
36.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trishton JacksonSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
36.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+1
36.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 24 Brian Lewerke fumbled, forced by Greer Martini, recovered by NDame Daelin HayesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2365% → 73%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
34.7%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+1
34.7%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+7
35.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 7 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
34.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+9
34.8%
Dexter Williams run for 9 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
34.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
26.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Dexter Williams for 8 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FUMBLE
10 plays · 74 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
28.6%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
29.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
29.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+8
29.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
30.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
30.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+22
29.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 22 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
30.5%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 4 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+14
30.5%
LJ Scott run for 14 yds LJ Scott fumbled, forced by Shaun Crawford, recovered by NDame Shaun CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:3474% → 85%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+45
26.4%
Josh Adams run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
25.2%
Brandon Wimbush run for no gain to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
25.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+21
25.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Durham Smythe for 21 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
14.9%
Dexter Williams run for 14 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
17.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
18.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
17.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SokolSimilar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
17.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 14 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
18.9%
Trishton Jackson pass complete to Brian Lewerke for 5 yds to the MchSt 45 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+20
17.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 20 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
19.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+6
19.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 6 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-5
19.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the NDame 33 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
19.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
19.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5587% → 87%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
12.6%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
12.6%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+4
13.2%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:3815% → 17%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.0%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
15.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 18 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
16.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to LJ ScottSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+20
16.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 20 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
17.1%
LJ Scott run for 10 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
17.3%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
17.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete MICHIGAN ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 6
OPP 20
-2
17.0%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Julian Okwara and Jerry Tillery for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
16.5%
Matt Coghlin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:1987% → 98%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
12.9%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
13.0%
Dexter Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
13.1%
WILLIAMS, D. rush for loss of 1 yard to the ND46 (Jones, Naquan), PENALTY MSU offside defense 5 yards to the MSU48, 1ST DOWN ND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
12.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 9 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 1
OPP 39
-1
12.3%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+5
12.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
12.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 27 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
12.2%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 9Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
2.4%
Deon McIntosh run for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
2.1%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Jackson, T., PENALTY ND pass interference 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
50
+3
2.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-10
2.2%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to White, Cody (ELLIOTT), PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the MSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 17
OWN 43
0
1.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trishton JacksonSimilar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 17
OWN 43
0
1.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
1.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
2.1%
Deon McIntosh run for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+14
2.2%
Deon McIntosh run for 14 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
2.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Miles Boykin for 12 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
2.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to C.J. Sanders for no gain to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
2.0%
C.J. Sanders run for no gain to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+3
2.0%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
2.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Quenton Nelson at the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17DOWNS
20 plays · 81 yds · 6:342% → 1%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
1.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 17 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
1.5%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+7
1.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 7 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+8
1.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
1.5%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
1.5%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+5
1.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 5 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
1.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Madre London for 7 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+3
1.0%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
1.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
1.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+17
1.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 17 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
1.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the NDame 7 NOTRE DAME Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+1
1.1%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the NDame 6Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
0.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Madre London for no gain to the NDame 4Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
0.6%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 6Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Drue TranquillSimilar
Q4 11:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:01100% → 100%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
0.3%
Deon McIntosh run for 6 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 4
OWN 12
-4
0.3%
Deon McIntosh run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 8Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+15
0.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 15 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
0.4%
Deon McIntosh run for 3 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
0.4%
Deon McIntosh run for no gain to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+47
0.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 32 yds to the MICHIGANST 42 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
0.3%
Deon McIntosh run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+4
0.3%
Deon McIntosh run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-4
0.3%
Deon McIntosh run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+46
0.2%
Justin Yoon 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 1:350% → 1%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
0.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Felton Davis III for 12 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+23
0.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 23 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
0.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 6 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
0.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+5
0.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 5 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
1.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 25 yds for a TD, (Brian Lewerke pass to Cody White for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3399% → 100%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
0.6%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+2
0.6%
Deon McIntosh run for 2 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+4
0.6%
Deon McIntosh run for 4 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
0.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 34 yds, downed at the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21END OF GAME
10 plays · 82 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
0.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 9 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+15
0.3%
Lewerke, Brian sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MSU10 (OGUNDEJI), PENALTY ND personal foul 15 yards to the MSU31, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
0.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 7 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+24
0.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Hunter Rison for 24 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
0.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
0.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 8 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
0.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cam ChambersSimilar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+12
0.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 12 yds to the NDame 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
0.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cam Chambers for 7 yds to the NDame 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:47
Dexter Williams run for 14 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q3 7:46
Deon McIntosh run for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q2 9:32
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Dexter Williams for 8 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com