Try the model
ND

Notre Dame 49 at Boston College 20

BC
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:23 · Davon Jones run for 3 yds to the BC 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:57: Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +8.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:04: Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +12.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:38: Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +8.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:41: Brandon Wimbush run for 65 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +4.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:02: Anthony Brown pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 14 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +4.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 12ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:35BC 4th & 1 at BC 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:08ND 4th & 5 at ND 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:52BC 4th & 10 at ND 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:12BC 4th & 5 at ND 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:09ND 4th & 6 at ND 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:36BC 4th & 13 at BC 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:00ND 4th & 16 at ND 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:02ND 4th & 5 at BC 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:51BC 4th & 9 at ND 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:11ND 4th & 3 at ND 30, down 3
    Close callPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:52BC 4th & 5 at midfield, up 3
    Close callPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:03BC 4th & 6 at ND 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:25BC 4th & 13 at ND 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−6.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:35ND 4th & 6 at ND 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:40BC 4th & 1 at ND 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−3.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−6.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:40BC 4th & 5 at ND 49, down 15
    Close callPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:02BC 4th & 14 at ND 14, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−2.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:25ND 4th & 1 at ND 34, up 15
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:43BC 4th & 1 at BC 34, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:31ND 4th & 3 at ND 40, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 6:28ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:59BC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:57ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:04ND Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:38ND Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:41ND Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:02BC Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:23ND Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:57ND Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1316% → 16%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
15.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-5
15.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (John Phillips) to the BC 28Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+3
16.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jon Hilliman for 3 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+8
16.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 8 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+4
16.3%
Mike Knoll punt for 51 yds , Chris Finke returns for 4 yds to the NDame 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1484% → 83%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
16.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 2 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+3
16.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
17.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Durham Smythe, broken up by Kamrin MooreSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
17.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the BC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3FG
12 plays · 32 yds · 4:1017% → 20%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
17.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 10 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
17.5%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+6
17.6%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
17.8%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-5
18.1%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (Tommy Sweeney) to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+1
18.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+10
18.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 10 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
18.9%
Thadd Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 12
OPP 22
-2
19.1%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 24 AJ Dillon fumbled, forced by Nyles Morgan, recovered by BC Ben PetrulaSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+4
19.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jon Hilliman for 4 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
19.7%
Colton Lichtenberg 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1780% → 82%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.8%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
19.8%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+65
20.2%
Josh Adams run for 65 yds to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.1%
Brandon Wimbush run for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:1019% → 20%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
18.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Chris Garrison for 20 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
19.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
19.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
19.9%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
19.6%
Mike Knoll punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5681% → 79%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
19.5%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the NDame 11Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+1
19.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd to the NDame 12Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+3
20.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 3 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
20.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the BC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2120% → 20%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
20.3%
Thadd Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 33Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+3
20.2%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-5
20.4%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (Tommy Sweeney) to the BC 31Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 13
OWN 31
0
20.1%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 13
OWN 31
-2
20.1%
Mike Knoll punt for 32 yds , Chris Finke returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3680% → 78%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
20.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Quenton Nelson) to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
20.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-2
20.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+1
21.5%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+6
22.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 52 yds , Michael Walker returns for 6 yds to the BC 35 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:5621% → 28%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
21.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 29 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
23.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 9 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+1
23.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
23.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+8
24.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 8 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
23.7%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
24.6%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+22
28.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 22 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:5073% → 73%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
26.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 16 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
25.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for 8 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+11
25.4%
Josh Adams run for 11 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
25.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
25.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
26.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. Brown, broken up by Kamrin MooreSimilar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+4
27.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 4 yds to the BC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:0328% → 30%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
28.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+11
28.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 11 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
30.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 11 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
30.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 15
50
+4
30.0%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+2
30.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 2 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
31.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
29.9%
Mike Knoll punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3370% → 67%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
30.1%
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd to the NDame 12Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+3
30.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 3 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+8
32.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Josh Adams for 8 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
31.1%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+1
30.5%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
31.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Michael YoungSimilar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
33.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the BC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:1333% → 34%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
32.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 13 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
34.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
35.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 5
50
0
35.1%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 5
50
0
33.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 1:4866% → 78%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
33.6%
Josh Adams run for 11 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
33.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+64
33.9%
Josh Adams run for 64 yds to the BC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
29.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for 11 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
29.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Alex Bars) to the BC 11Similar
Q2 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
30.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:4228% → 27%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
27.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 11 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
28.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
28.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
28.3%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Michael WalkerSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
26.8%
Mike Knoll punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16INT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:3675% → 75%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
24.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 7 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+15
25.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 15 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
25.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 6 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
24.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+18
24.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass intercepted Lukas Denis return for 18 yds to the NDame 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0831% → 31%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
30.8%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
30.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the NDame 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0874% → 74%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.0%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
25.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
26.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 4 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
25.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 32 Brandon Wimbush fumbled, recovered by BC Kevin BletzerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1033% → 32%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
32.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 12 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
32.6%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 12
OPP 22
-5
32.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (Charlie Callinan) to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 17
OPP 27
+5
31.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 5 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 12
OPP 22
-1
30.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jon Hilliman for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 23Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+41
31.8%
Colton Lichtenberg 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4169% → 66%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Josh Adams for 1 yd to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
31.6%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 21Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+8
33.5%
Josh Adams run for 8 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+13
34.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 38 yds , Michael Walker returns for 13 yds to the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:4737% → 37%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
37.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 15 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
38.3%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
38.6%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
38.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
37.4%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:2567% → 82%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
33.3%
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
33.1%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+6
31.9%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
31.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
32.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chris Finke, broken up by Lukas DenisSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+46
33.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for 46 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
29.9%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
30.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 5 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4019% → 19%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
18.9%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay White, broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
18.8%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+35
19.2%
Anthony Brown pass intercepted Shaun Crawford return for no gain to the NDame 27 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (35 Yards) to the NDame 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2382% → 93%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
17.9%
Josh Adams run for 36 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+33
16.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Durham Smythe for 33 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
15.8%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the BC 3Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
7.1%
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:3811% → 12%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
11.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+6
11.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 6 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
12.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
12.1%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+2
11.9%
Anthony Brown run for 2 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+4
11.9%
Mike Knoll punt for 36 yds , Chris Finke returns for 4 yds to the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:5194% → 99%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
6.2%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 18Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+14
6.0%
Dexter Williams run for 14 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
6.1%
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
5.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+65
1.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 65 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:322% → 7%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
2.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 13 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
2.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 10 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
2.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jake Burt for 5 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+6
2.4%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
2.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 6 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
2.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Chris Garrison for 3 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+6
2.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 6 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
2.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
2.3%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+10
2.3%
AJ Dillon run for 10 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
2.4%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
2.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q4 9:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
2.3%
Anthony Brown sacked by Jerry Tillery for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 14Similar
Q4 9:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
6.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 14 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3196% → 96%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.2%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
4.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
4.2%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
3.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 57 yds, downed at the BC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 29FUMBLE
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:305% → 5%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
5.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Korab IdriziSimilar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+17
5.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 17 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
5.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy Sweeney, broken up by Nyles MorganSimilar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
5.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 9 yds to the BC 35 Jon Hilliman fumbled, forced by Nyles Morgan, recovered by NDame Shaun CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 30TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:1697% → 99%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+32
3.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 32 yds to the BC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.7%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 31INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:051% → 1%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Travis Levy, broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
1.0%
Anthony Brown pass intercepted Shaun Crawford return for no gain to the BC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 32TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:1199% → 100%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
0.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Nic WeisharSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
0.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+14
0.6%
Dexter Williams run for 14 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
0.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
0.1%
Dexter Williams run for 15 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 33PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Chris GarrisonSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
0.1%
Darius Wade run for 8 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+49
0.1%
Mike Knoll punt for 49 yds , Chris Finke returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 34PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
0.1%
Deon McIntosh run for 5 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+12
0.1%
Deon McIntosh run for 12 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
0.1%
Deon McIntosh run for 3 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
0.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+4
0.1%
Deon McIntosh run for 4 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
0.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 54 yds, downed at the BC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 35END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
0.1%
Davon Jones run for 3 yds to the BC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:04
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 2:38
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-8.9
TD · Q2 1:57
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com