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ARMY

Army 14 at Navy 13

NAVY
2017 · Week 15 · Dec 9, 2017 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:33 · Owen White punt for 26 yds, downed at the Army 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+15.0+7.50−7.5−15.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense+1.7Garbage-time factor+0.2Pregame prior+1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:28: Malcolm Perry 68 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +4.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 5:10: Ahmad Bradshaw 1 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick) — ARMY win probability +39.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:03: Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 41 — NAVY win probability +11.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:12: Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Army 31 — ARMY win probability +10.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03: Timeout NAVY, clock 00:03 — ARMY win probability +12.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 8:47ARMY 4th & 1 at NAVY 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−0.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:06NAVY 4th & 1 at ARMY 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−1.0
    75% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−4.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:55NAVY 4th & 2 at ARMY 11, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%−0.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−5.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:00ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:13ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 28, down 3
    Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:33NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:22ARMY 4th & 7 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:09NAVY 4th & 2 at ARMY 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:16NAVY 4th & 5 at ARMY 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−8.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:55ARMY 4th & 16 at NAVY 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−4.0
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−11.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:50NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:58NAVY 4th & 3 at ARMY 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    45.8%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−12.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00NAVY 4th & 16 at ARMY 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−32.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−37.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:06ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:28NAVY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:10ARMY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−2.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 6:4948% → 50%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
52.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
52.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+2
52.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+33
52.5%
Kell Walker run for 33 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
52.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+6
52.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
52.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
52.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
52.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+2
52.6%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.8%
Darnell Woolfolk 3 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 6:5851% → 52%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
50.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
50.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
50.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+5
51.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
51.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 19 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
51.3%
Joshua Walker run for 5 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+4
51.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
50.6%
Chris High run for no gain to the Army 20Similar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+1
50.0%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Army 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
50.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
50.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Army 12Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+1
49.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Army 11Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+28
51.9%
Bennett Moehring 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:4749% → 50%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
49.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for no gain to the Army 32 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Defensive Holding (Brandon Jones) to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
49.5%
John Trainor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 39Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
50.3%
Kell Walker run for no gain to the Army 39Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+9
50.7%
Andy Davidson run for 9 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
50.2%
Nick Schrage punt for 26 yds, downed at the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 1:2351% → 55%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
50.8%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 2 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+4
50.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+68
55.2%
Malcolm Perry 68 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0244% → 43%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
56.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
56.2%
Kell Walker run for 5 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
55.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for no gain to the Army 28Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
57.1%
Nick Schrage punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3757% → 57%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
56.5%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
56.5%
Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 2 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
57.3%
Craig Scott pass incomplete to Malcolm PerrySimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
56.5%
Owen White punt for 26 yds, downed at the Army 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:0544% → 43%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
55.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 10 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
54.5%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
54.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-1
54.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 7
50
0
56.9%
Nick Schrage punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 5:0358% → 60%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
57.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
59.3%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
58.4%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+4
59.0%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+2
59.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+5
57.8%
ARMY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaylon McClinton) to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
60.6%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 7
50
+3
61.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
60.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
60.2%
Owen White punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
58.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 5:3161% → 69%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
60.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+4
62.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
61.8%
Joshua Walker run for 7 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
63.4%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+46
62.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 46 yds to the Army 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
65.0%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Army 7Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
65.4%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Army 7Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+1
64.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Army 6Similar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
68.9%
Bennett Moehring 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11MISSED FG
17 plays · 62 yds · 9:1034% → 25%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
65.8%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the Army 21Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
66.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+20
67.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Calen Holt for 20 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
64.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+21
63.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 21 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
61.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 9 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+3
60.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
60.5%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
60.7%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+3
62.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
60.9%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-1
61.1%
Kell Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 10Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-5
63.3%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (Rick Kurz) to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 15
-3
71.4%
John Trainor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 16
OPP 18
+35
74.9%
Blake Wilson 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0578% → 78%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
77.8%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 15Similar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+4
77.8%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+3
77.9%
Joshua Walker run for 3 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+2
77.5%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+40
78.3%
Owen White punt for 40 yds , John Trainor returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 7:3426% → 64%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
74.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 12 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
73.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 12 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
72.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
70.5%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
73.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
73.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+2
75.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
73.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
74.2%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+1
76.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
74.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for no gain to the Navy 9Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
75.1%
John Trainor run for 8 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw 1 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14DOWNS
18 plays · 34 yds · 5:0351% → 20%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
50.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
55.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
55.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+13
52.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 13 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
56.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
55.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+1
55.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Army 37Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+12
52.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 12 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
60.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-5
58.2%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Evan Martin) to the Army 28Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+2
53.3%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-5
47.7%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Tyler Carmona) to the Army 31Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 16
OPP 31
0
36.9%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Army 31Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 31
+48
19.9%
Bennett Moehring 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:10
Ahmad Bradshaw 1 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)
-39.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-19.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03
Timeout NAVY, clock 00:03
-12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com